Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

[Chrisrotary12]

Canadian looks like rain? 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. 

 

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

All about the flip. After the 00z model suite I was expecting it around noon here. A flip around that time gives us a shot at double digits.

Of course.....this is going to be one of those systems where when you measure "by the book" you got 10" but when you shovel at the end it looks like 3"

I need to see it in Bufkit before I'm entirely certain, but at 15z Sat it looks awfully close to freezing throughout the column despite being 37 at the surface. It looks like the lowest 500 m or so are above freezing for sure (~1600 ft) so that's pretty close to all snow that early in the day. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. 

Starts off with +1C at H95 at ASH midday tomorrow, but by afternoon that wetbulb 0C is below that level despite throwing out a 35° at 2m (976mb). 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You trace that cold side of the innermost closed contour. That's a tasty track for a lot of people on this board.

I keep watching the H5-H7 track (they are almost the same since this goes nuts so fast)....having those go over the Cape is premium for a good chunk of interior SNE and I think having them exiting out into the gulf of maine signals at least a few hours nearer to the coast around or just north of BOS.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, DomNH said:

GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. 

Ya porked us nicely with 0c 925 line regarding changes from 6z. Still close But get me out about 25 miles NW at 1k 

[Heisy]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, GFS will be too warm...I will trade the more eastern tracks for more development. Dynamics will be more valuable than that few miles of longitude.

I booked a room at Henniker Motel. I’d rather have elevation. Getting a few things done and heading out. Excited. Hope I can score a foot plus out of this.

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I booked a room at Henniker Motel. I’d rather have elevation. Getting a few things done and heading out. Excited. Hope I can score a foot plus out of this.

Good luck not scoring bedbugs.

[IowaStorm05]

10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Canadian looks like rain? 

It has... and if this warmer solution verifies One could point out we aren’t exactly in an NAO negative right now... 

the Canadian has been most consistent of em all the whole time.... I feel like, predicting a warmer soltn

 

15z RAP looking great for CT but I don’t trust it for 30 hours out

[DomNH]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Starts off with +1C at H95 at ASH midday tomorrow, but by afternoon that wetbulb 0C is below that level despite throwing out a 35° at 2m (976mb). 

It's pretty warm around H85 through like 18z-19z, though.

[UnitedWx]

37 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

We will send in our Power Companies to assist, rest assured

Thank you! Neversource is significantly understaffed even compared to cl&p days

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

It's pretty warm around H85 through like 18z-19z, though.

ya so basically a later change over is what is being said. On 12z Goofus . 6Z changed over 3 hours earlier

[Damage In Tolland]

Change over time for CT looks like mid to late morning.That look about right?

[Whineminster]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ashburnham has a couple of hundred feet of el over me       They do amazingly well.    

Honestly I think the best area ends up east of us.  It almost always trends east versus west as we get closer in. I can only thing of a couple times where it went the other way. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

GGEM is a turd.  Definitely on the warm side of consensus 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, DomNH said:

It's pretty warm around H85 through like 18z-19z, though.

Yeah...nice isothermal layer up to H8. Paste city aloft. 
 

Date: 30 hour AVN valid 18Z SAT  5 DEC 20
Station: 42.78,-71.52
Latitude:   42.78
Longitude: -71.52
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   -20                                                                 
SFC  980   145   2.8   1.9  94  0.9   2.4   4  16 277.6 278.3 276.6 289.9  4.49
  2  950   395   1.1   0.9  98  0.2   1.0  10  34 278.3 279.0 276.7 290.0  4.28
  3  900   828  -0.5  -0.5  99  0.1  -0.5  18  43 281.0 281.7 277.9 292.4  4.08
  4  850  1286   0.1  -0.0  99  0.1   0.0  41  43 286.3 287.0 280.9 299.0  4.49
  5  800  1772  -0.3  -0.4  99  0.1  -0.3  66  33 290.8 291.7 283.1 304.2  4.64
  6  750  2288  -1.3  -1.4  99  0.1  -1.4 104  37 295.2 296.0 284.8 308.7  4.59
  7  700  2836  -3.3  -3.6  98  0.3  -3.4 131  43 298.8 299.6 285.8 311.4  4.20
  8  650  3420  -5.8  -6.2  97  0.4  -6.0 139  42 302.4 303.1 286.6 313.7  3.70
  9  600  4044  -8.9  -9.4  96  0.5  -9.1 146  39 305.8 306.4 287.3 315.5  3.12
 10  550  4712 -12.5 -12.9  97  0.4 -12.7 152  39 309.2 309.7 287.9 317.4  2.57
 11  500  5434 -17.1 -17.2  99  0.1 -17.1 159  41 312.2 312.6 288.3 318.7  1.99

 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I keep watching the H5-H7 track (they are almost the same since this goes nuts so fast)....having those go over the Cape is premium for a good chunk of interior SNE and I think having them exiting out into the gulf of maine signals at least a few hours nearer to the coast around or just north of BOS.

Fall back on conceptual models and ignore the 2 m temp noise. Between 18 and 21z those winds go from NE to N in Essex Co and that should stop any warming potential for the rest of the event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

This is the GFS clown map.  Still looks great for the eastern half of NNE, we do get in a little on this one though in western NNE.

Congrats, Pat's Peak...literally.

[DomNH]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

ya so basically a later change over is what is being said. On 12z Goofus . 6Z changed over 3 hours earlier

Yep. Still probably a sick thump GFS verbatim. Any more NW tics though and we're probably on the outside looking in enjoying 1-2'' of slop at the end.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Good luck not scoring bedbugs.

Hotel is at about 650' on the dot. Better than where i am lol

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I booked a room at Henniker Motel. I’d rather have elevation. Getting a few things done and heading out. Excited. Hope I can score a foot plus out of this.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Change over time for CT looks like mid to late morning.That look about right?

yeah that's what I'm thinking. maybe even early-to-mid morning for hills

[Snowcrazed71]

So do you guys think that the National Weather Service will put some watches up in to Connecticut now?

[TalcottWx]

Bridgton me is perfect 

[Heisy]

6 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Good luck not scoring bedbugs.

Lol....yeah I’ll be doing a full sweep of the room. I could find another place too that has better rating idk

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Widespread power issues are certainly a possibility here...thankfully trees are bare so not sure this will be as bad as say 2011 but this aspect should be addressed. Right when this band materializes places will flip from RA to +SN probably in the matter of 10-15 minutes. 

Still to this point in my life have I yet to experience a transition awe the likes of which I did back on the evening of December 10 1992. 

I've told this story ...in prose novular format, so no sense waxing and laboring description all anew.  But, the paraphrased version: 

We were experiencing large cat paws amid sheeting cold rains ... sideways at 38 and change F.   

I was living in Fox Tower dormitory Hall up at UML as I date myself - heh.   Anyway, the building seemed to 'sway' slightly by the force of the wind.  We had a real humdinger bomb going off between NJ and ISP ... destined to be capture, it would then trundle only a slow death off ACK for another day ..day and half, I time in which some pretty extraordinary things took place. 

You know I can't recall - if the Merrimack Valley region was actually under a winter advisory?  But, that system had already spun for 12 hours worth at that point, and out toward Worcester country ...the elevations were rumored to be over a foot with ongoing choking fall rates...  Mind you...this is way back before hand-held high tech made access to radar, satellite and the dizzying array of other Meteorological colonoscopy that we over-stimulate our e-zombie psychotropic addictions with today.  We had the bitter-sweet virtue back then of the 'unsolved mystery,' the 'wonder' of what would be in store.  Haha... yeah, I know - lost on today's wit ... Can't say I'd be willing to return to that state of affairs either in all honesty.  

That was one of those rare times where and when the rumor was actually vastly UNDERselling what was happening out toward Worcester country.  I was hanging out down the lounge/lobby area not studying... a typical haunt. The setting was just off the front entrance of the Hall, when some guy comes in ..he's looking slightly disheveled ... peering around in juts.  He's soaking wet and runs his hands frantically back through his hair a couple times and murmurs "Jesus Christ"    

"What's wrong with you - what's going on," the security guard that most students had developed a friendly rapport with - you could tell he liked his gig. Probably kept him young to interact with passer by students, I can imagine.  Anyway, the guy stopped and said, "You wouldn't f'n believe it..I'm in a hurry. I gotta get back to my girlfriend waiting in the storm in her car up in Dracut"  

Mind you, Dracut was/is 5 miles as the crow flies from Fox Toward and the UML campus...  

"Why what's up?"   The sequence of events had managed to capture multiple attention spans.  The guy says, "It's the snow storm. She's off the road and I got to make a phone call for a tow because I can't push her out."  A few of us walked over to the large windows next to the door and looked left and right out into the rain abyss of the night ... and furled brows at each other, 'what the hell's he talking about.'   

"Right up over the Tyngsborough bridge it's snowing so hard you can't see!"  ... 

A little while later I boarded the elevator and ascended to my aerie abode higher up in the building.  Unlike my grade-point average, I did have the elevated vantage point out of window overlooking the campus.  Ha. Least I had that goin' for me.  As I was getting off the elevator...another subtle sensation of swaying, 'whoa'.  The distant sound of huge wind, I imagined, as it was curling around the monolithic structure of the building.  I'm standing in front of my door, and as I am fumbling with my keys, they of course jingled to the floor.  When I bent down to recollect just then, a brilliant flash permeates from under the door.. Like the crack along the floor, light flashed through.   At first I wondered if my bone-head roommate was in there with his chums sparkin' one off, but as I keyed the door and opened it, I was not greeted by purple haze, the murmur voices, and the sweet stench of skunt testicles... I was greeted by the cocophantic booms of thunder ... 

'Holy shit!'  ...Immediately I'm tripping over chairs in the dark and I recall I dinged the front of my shin bone - I remember that hurting like holy hell..but I was fumbling my way to the window because ... you know, priorities.  I was standing there... there was another flash puslated over the building... and as the thunder soon followed it seemed to herald one of the more fantastic things I've ever seen in a weather phenomenon.  The entire sky afar began aglow in a butterscotch hue. It was as though the sky was a glow lamp that was turned up all at once.  One by one, dots of distant humanity lights began to blink off... I was trying to makes sense of what I was seeing as another flash ... and as the boom occurred, that hue over took the immediate atmosphere outside the window, and the whole sky to earth and air in between went from R+ to S+ ...  5 seconds.  Visibility went from typical heavy rain and wind at night ...to glowing 1/8th of a mi vis or less, .... immediately!

No lie. Not an exaggeration.  If anything ... 5 seconds may be generous; it may have been less than that. It was literally, instant ... 

12 hours later, we had 18" of snow under a blizzard warning.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I booked a room at Henniker Motel. I’d rather have elevation. Getting a few things done and heading out. Excited. Hope I can score a foot plus out of this.

Nice, enjoy....wish we still had my dad's place at Rock N' Birch haha

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Bridgton me is perfect 

You going?

[IowaStorm05]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So do you guys think that the National Weather Service will put some watches up in to Connecticut now?

Willi here.

I doubt it. I don’t think there’s enough consistency in models up through now and as I pointed out the Canadian has been steadfast at showing rain here... while other models have started trending toward it. 
 

it’s possible we could get last minute warnings but meh. It’s more likely we would see a couple inches of snow in northern or northwestern counties 

[Heisy]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice, enjoy....wish we still had my dad's place at Rock N' Birch haha

The other place I was contemplating was the Mapes at Warner in Warner Nh. Had good reviews and price was good. Little farther N 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

That's such an excellently written weenie snow post that captures everything that was going on perfectly.  

 

Meanwhile in Raynham, Ma i recall the roar of the trees that nite,  i kept opening the sliding door to my back deck in a sort of awe. Woke up to a miserable 2-3" of Pitiful Snow. I turn on the Tv and see one of the Channel 4 Boston Mets listing snow fall amounts from just a bit inland and north of me. I kept checking different sides of my yard wondering if some tress or wind blocked the spot i initially checked. Nope ...Skunked. Thankfully that day , My Father was picking Me up and he took Us sledding in Cumberland RI. I was in awe as we approached the last mile to Diamond Hill. I noticed trees were sagging severely.  I couldn't believe how much snow was in the parking lot. It was unreal the difference of being further inland and a couple hundred feet.