Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I think I’m gonna head somewhere off the  highway in Concord. I drive a sports car and I’m not able to leave until like 5pm tonight so a 6 hour drive I’ll just be beating it, but I don’t wanna drive on rough roads

Rent a hummy so you can go in and up some. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hopefully most of you have power back by Christmas 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I think I’m gonna head somewhere off the  highway in Concord. I drive a sports car and I’m not able to leave until like 5pm tonight so a 6 hour drive I’ll just be beating it, but I don’t wanna drive on rough roads

Go to Pats Peak, just west of Concord.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beer

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice balmy 56F today.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Berks still well outside forecasted warning snow region -- as it was when the WSW was issued yesterday afternoon. Seemed like an odd jumping-the-gun call, especially for this area.

Dude, its a watch....not a warning.

[PhineasC]

The generator is fully fueled, getting gas for the snowblower. Plowing for the driveway lined up. Shovel waxed!

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nice balmy 56F today.  

Just like a Baltimore snowstorm. Always good to get into the low 60s right before the storm...

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I think I’m gonna head somewhere off the  highway in Concord. I drive a sports car and I’m not able to leave until like 5pm tonight so a 6 hour drive I’ll just be beating it, but I don’t wanna drive on rough roads

I’d keep going up 93 to Loon or Woodstock.  Or maybe Plymouth which is a college town.  In all these cases you won’t have to drive far off of 93 and you will have restaurants nearby.  You will want to have nice places to walk around.  If you don’t have the right vehicle though, you won’t be able to leave until 93 is wet.  Probably Sunday afternoon 

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Go to Pats Peak, just west of Concord.

Good idea!  Town of henniker 

[tunafish]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Go to Pats Peak, just west of Concord.

That's a good call.  Henniker, NH.  You can get there via 202, which is essentially a one-lane highway.  I wouldn't advise going up to Pats Peak in a sports car.  The roads to get there are winding.  "Downtown" Henniker might be good enough.  You can walk around there, too, by the river.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had about a foot in that..one of my favorite events. Underrated and unexpected. I was a junior in HS, and it completely caught Wilmington High School off guard. I remember sitting in algebra starting out the window as it transitioned to snow about mid to late morning...I immediately suspected a positive bust from the 3 or so inches that was expected. We came out into the parking lot a few hours later and everyone was elated....snowfall fights abound...I did some wheelies, and bang...white-ass xmas during a raging super el nino.

That was it for that winter.

The End-

Yeah that was an awesome surprise. I was in Auburn, NH for that one. I didn’t do clearing for that, but I had 18” of new snow depth. That was a fast and furious dumping.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Good idea!  Town of henniker 

My family had a place at Rockn Birch campground for many years....lovely little town right on the Contocook River.

[RDRY]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, its a watch....not a warning.

I'm aware of that. Over two decades up here seeing when watches are issued, I found the call to be oddly out of sync with the modeling. It requires much more forecasting certainty at that lead time to issue watches in these parts. If the mets making the call simply anticipated an outcome divergent with the modeling, they've never referenced it in their write-ups.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, tunafish said:

That's a good call.  Henniker, NH.  You can get there via 202, which is essentially a one-lane highway.  I wouldn't advise going up to Pats Peak in a sports car.  The roads to get there are winding.  "Downtown" Henniker might be good enough.  You can walk around there, too, by the river.

Downtown is about 550' elevation, so not awful. 

Big college town.

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The generator is fully fueled, getting gas for the snowblower. Plowing for the driveway lined up. Weenie waxed!

Get a box of tissues...

 

Should be a nice event in your hood

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RDRY said:

I'm aware of that. Over two decades up here seeing when watches are issued, I found the call to be oddly out of sync with the modeling. It requires much more forecasting certainty at that lead time to issue watches in these parts. If the mets making the call simply anticipated an outcome divergent with the modeling, they've never referenced it in their write-ups.

At the time that they issued the watch, the storm was developing faster and the mid level banding looked to set up there.

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM is still a furnace. Also more amped...buzzard bay track.

Still weird to see the sfc so torched though....at 21z tomorrow, it has -1C 925 over my head with -3C 850 temps and it's like 37F, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’d keep going up 93 to Loon or Woodstock.  Or maybe Plymouth which is a college town.  In all these cases you won’t have to drive far off of 93 and you will have restaurants nearby.  You will want to have nice places to walk around.  If you don’t have the right vehicle though, you won’t be able to leave until 93 is wet.  Probably Sunday afternoon 

Yea, Heniker is a good hike off of 93....not too bad off of 89.

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good god....that is a ridiculous run for like ORH/495 belt through 33 hours...and getting up into a good chunk of NH and S ME.

This is happening as the N/stream is relaying over the Lakes from a source region that is relatively assimilated/spartan of phsycially realized data. Mere coincidence? 

We spoke of this and this solution do precisely ... bringing more insert in the N/stream torques the whole structure ...adding mechanical cyclogenic parameterization and forcing a westerly reposition ... here we go..

wdrag ?  CT/ lower zones are tough.. timing change-over...  You may have been right about the storm, but the snow vs rain is troublesome.  We have grid concerns.. up our way, and it'll be close by down that way. From NE CT to metro W/ORH to ASH-MHT/CON ... usual suspects.    Prime generators -

This event is multi-faceted ... 

I am curious about hydro.  d(absorption)/dt is ready to take in due to resent priming. That said, 2.5" of QPF in 12 hours may send smaller waterways considering we just delivered 2.5 recently... 

But, if these FOUS NAM numbers are factorable... folks need to be advised that the biggest concern/implication in these numerics for BOS is not the snow ... although, the west of the city out toward even Arlington Hgts...Waltham to Burlington could wall 20" of blue bomb and that's a real, real big grid problem for these bolded numbers:

24027989252 06608 090511 45060200   24068989251 -0710 050118 45050200
30126989449 31909 960235 48040002   30040767521 00414 033322 39050097
36117989131 01615 933136 42009998   36000722604 00416 083121 35029695
42033948530 -5716 972930 37999596   42000752507 -0320 093120 34009596

36 kts of mid boundary layer 'shock' wind increase ... going from 05, 11 kts zephyr to 30 deg back shift and acceleration ( and not the 1009 to 996, 6-hrly dp/dt!!!!), that's a pretty clear suggestion for an isollobaric wind pulse due to bombing rates .. probably a bit cross isobaric too... I bet the 310 deg ... 36 kt sustained mid bl flow at 36 hours ..the low is probably still out in the Harbor.  This a big problem where we overlay the acceleration deformation in the nearby westerly towns/metro-west with snow loading.  

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I'm aware of that. Over two decades up here seeing when watches are issued, I found the call to be oddly out of sync with the modeling. It requires much more forecasting certainty at that lead time to issue watches in these parts. If the mets making the call simply anticipated an outcome divergent with the modeling, they've never referenced it in their write-ups.

You really don't need that much certainty for a watch, it's a 50/50 product. I tend to think of them more as a 4+ inch product. Higher chance you'll see at least an advisory, but not necessarily a warning.

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At the time that they issued the watch, the storm was developing faster and the mid level banding looked to set up there.

You've referenced that. But at the time (mid-afternoon yesterday), the GFS had shown around 4 inches, while none of the other models had any significant precip reaching the area. Even with an anticipated farther west expansion based on the mid and upper levels, the storm was much too far east.

[OceanStWx]

FWIW, the 06z GFS is probably the best upper air match at 12z. 12z NAM and 00z Euro are both not deep enough with the upper low over MO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is happening as the N/stream is relaying over the Lakes from a source region that is relatively assimilated/spartan of phsycially realized data. Mere coincidence? 

We spoke of this and this solution do precisely ... bringing more insert in the N/stream torques the whole structure ...adding mechanical cyclogenic parameterization and forcing a westerly reposition ... here we go..

wdrag ?  CT/ lower zones are tough.. timing change-over...  You may have been right about the storm, but the snow vs rain is troublesome.  We have grid concerns.. up our way, and it'll be close by down that way. From NE CT to metro W/ORH to ASH-MHT/CON ... usual suspects.    Prime generators -

This event is multi-faceted ... 

I am curious about hydro.  d(absorption)/dt is ready to take in due to resent priming. That said, 2.5" of QPF in 12 hours may send smaller waterways considering we just delivered 2.5 recently... 

But, if these FOUS NAM numbers are factorable... folks need to be advised that the biggest concern/implication in these numerics for BOS is not the snow ... although, the west of the city out toward even Arlington Hgts...Waltham to Burlington could wall 20" of blue bomb and that's a real, real big grid problem for these bolded numbers:

24027989252 06608 090511 45060200   24068989251 -0710 050118 45050200
30126989449 31909 960235 48040002   30040767521 00414 033322 39050097
36117989131 01615 933136 42009998   36000722604 00416 083121 35029695
42033948530 -5716 972930 37999596   42000752507 -0320 093120 34009596

36 kts of mid boundary layer 'shock' wind increase ... going from 05, 11 kts zephyr to 30 deg back shift and acceleration ( and not the 1009 to 996, 6-hrly dp/dt!!!!), that's a pretty clear suggestion for an isollobaric wind pulse due to bombing rates .. probably a bit cross isobaric too... I bet the 310 deg ... 36 kt sustained mid bl flow at 36 hours ..the low is probably still out in the Harbor.  This a big problem where we overlay the acceleration deformation in the nearby westerly towns/metro-west with snow loading.  

Easy, killah....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

You've referenced that. But at the time (mid-afternoon yesterday), the GFS had shown around 4 inches, while none of the other models had any significant precip reaching the area. Even with an anticipated farther west expansion based on the mid and upper levels, the storm was much too far east.

We'll agree to disagree.

Not going to derail the thread.

Should be fascinating to watch unfold tomorrow.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Reggie is NW  

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is happening as the N/stream is relaying over the Lakes from a source region that is relatively assimilated/spartan of phsycially realized data. Mere coincidence? 

We spoke of this and this solution do precisely ... bringing more insert in the N/stream torques the whole structure ...adding mechanical cyclogenic parameterization and forcing a westerly reposition ... here we go..

wdrag ?  CT/ lower zones are tough.. timing change-over...  You may have been right about the storm, but the snow vs rain is troublesome.  We have grid concerns.. up our way, and it'll be close by down that way. From NE CT to metro W/ORH to ASH-MHT/CON ... usual suspects.    Prime generators -

This event is multi-faceted ... 

I am curious about hydro.  d(absorption)/dt is ready to take in due to resent priming. That said, 2.5" of QPF in 12 hours may send smaller waterways considering we just delivered 2.5 recently... 

But, if these FOUS NAM numbers are factorable... folks need to be advised that the biggest concern/implication in these numerics for BOS is not the snow ... although, the west of the city out toward even Arlington Hgts...Waltham to Burlington could wall 20" of blue bomb and that's a real, real big grid problem for these bolded numbers:

24027989252 06608 090511 45060200   24068989251 -0710 050118 45050200
30126989449 31909 960235 48040002   30040767521 00414 033322 39050097
36117989131 01615 933136 42009998   36000722604 00416 083121 35029695
42033948530 -5716 972930 37999596   42000752507 -0320 093120 34009596

36 kts of mid boundary layer 'shock' wind increase ... going from 05, 11 kts zephyr to 30 deg back shift and acceleration ( and not the 1009 to 996, 6-hrly dp/dt!!!!), that's a pretty clear suggestion for an isollobaric wind pulse due to bombing rates .. probably a bit cross isobaric too... I bet the 310 deg ... 36 kt sustained mid bl flow at 36 hours ..the low is probably still out in the Harbor.  This a big problem where we overlay the acceleration deformation in the nearby westerly towns/metro-west with snow loading.  

You'd probably appreciate the RGEM 500mb map at 30 and 33 hours....that vortmax reminds me of a certain event.....

 

 

 

[Heisy]

13 minutes ago, tunafish said:

That's a good call.  Henniker, NH.  You can get there via 202, which is essentially a one-lane highway.  I wouldn't advise going up to Pats Peak in a sports car.  The roads to get there are winding.  "Downtown" Henniker might be good enough.  You can walk around there, too, by the river.

Yeah once I’m at the hotel/motel I’ll just be walking. I’ll bring some food etc. let me check out some places in Henniker. Thanks all I got a couple great recommendations. Now let’s hope the RGEMs temps are wrong lol. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

[CoastalWx]

12/9/05 definitely had a better airmass all around. This has a strong vort, but garbage air all over.