Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

[Bostonseminole]

21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This has the makings of a quick thump for those who get under that banding.

yeah, that is our only hope out this way I think.. a quick 4-6"

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even the kuchera maps are pretty good....and they are pretty conservative in the marginal low level events. That's how obscene that run was.

 

Even puts me in the 8"-9" range. Isnt the NAM better within 24 hours? Wonder if the Euro will follow suite like it did after that big run the NAM had yesterday morning?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Seriously, 1 county over? Maybe another shift westard would help us out...lol

There isn’t enough of a westward shift possible to get us into plowable. Even the holiest DIT prayer can’t help us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think that 9-10" on the NAM is my ceiling.

[correnjim1]

it's finding away to screw me

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, steep gradient....like 6-7" in Wilmington.....9-10" here, up to 18" in MHT.

[dryslot]

Yesterday you got your whiff run, Today is the zoinked run, Now you know your truly back to winter with the Nam.

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

;now that is a @dendrite coop crusher

Shades of 2017 at the homestead? I’d be afraid to see what it would’ve looked like in 07/08.

[klw]

The potential huge difference from the Upper Valley to S NH reminds me of a storm in the 98 to 01 time frame.  My memory is that it ended on the 23rd because my parents were driving up for Christmas.  We had very little in VT but I had to go to court in Manchester NH for a hearing first thing in the morning.  When I got there it was snowing 4+ inches an hour and the city was a ghost town.  The federal courthouse was closed and the roads in the middle of the city all had 6+ inches on them so I went to the Mall of NH to ride it out.  90 minutes and 6 more inches later the snow stopped.  Manchester got 17".  

Does anyone remember this storm and know the year?  Is it an analog for this?

[IowaStorm05]

Not exactly promised for Willimantic.

 

but it could! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, great trend on the 06z EURO....reversed that later development trend.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, klw said:

The potential huge difference from the Upper Valley to S NH reminds me of a storm in the 98 to 01 time frame.  My memory is that it ended on the 23rd because my parents were driving up for Christmas.  We had very little in VT but I had to go to court in Manchester NH for a hearing first thing in the morning.  When I got there it was snowing 4+ inches an hour and the city was a ghost town.  The federal courthouse was closed and the roads in the middle of the city all had 6+ inches on them so I went to the Mall of NH to ride it out.  90 minutes and 6 more inches later the snow stopped.  Manchester got 17".  

Does anyone remember this storm and know the year?  Is it an analog for this?

Ask Will. He has all the details embedded to his medulla omblagada.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, klw said:

The potential huge difference from the Upper Valley to S NH reminds me of a storm in the 98 to 01 time frame.  My memory is that it ended on the 23rd because my parents were driving up for Christmas.  We had very little in VT but I had to go to court in Manchester NH for a hearing first thing in the morning.  When I got there it was snowing 4+ inches an hour and the city was a ghost town.  The federal courthouse was closed and the roads in the middle of the city all had 6+ inches on them so I went to the Mall of NH to ride it out.  90 minutes and 6 more inches later the snow stopped.  Manchester got 17".  

Does anyone remember this storm and know the year?  Is it an analog for this?

Dec 23, 1997.

Ayer, MA had like 8" in an hour.

[ORH_wxman]

Yep, 12/23/97

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yesterday you got your whiff run, Today is the zoinked run, Now you know your truly back to winter with the Nam.

Yeah the NAM usually has that 1 late 12z run that sucks me back in with something huge and then I get Charlie Browned by the rest of the suite. There’s a good bet for near warning snows, but toss the exotic solution...for now.

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

that 23.3 just east of me is through 10pm Saturday night?  That must have some insane rates and it might not be over then?  Even if we do that old ETA rule to cut qpf by a third, that is a great storm.  Also NAM Euro rule here.  I was going to set 6" as the over under but now might be 8.  Jeff looks right on the edge if that band sets up west of him, but won't coastal ME finish well as it collapses to the coast?

Based on the mid level tracks I would think coastal ME would do better than the NAM shows on its clown map. It is bringing some above freezing air in at 850 because it's so wrapped up it sends the mid level front to BGR. I tend to think the lift and melting would help us keep that layer cooler.

[Baroclinic Zone]

15 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah, that is our only hope out this way I think.. a quick 4-6"

You'll get something.  I'll enjoy the white rain.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You'll get something.  I'll enjoy the white rain.

At least the drought is over. Small victories.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah the NAM usually has that 1 late 12z run that sucks me back in with something huge and then I get Charlie Browned by the rest of the suite. There’s a good bet for near warning snows, but toss the exotic solution...for now.

I think the the 3K Nam has the right idea until proven wrong, It does side with all the other guidance except the 12K, Although the 12k Nam is quite wound up i would question it having that warm layer aloft.

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

At least the drought is over. Small victories.

Funny knowing how in the Catskills there may not even be so much as any rainfall.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Funny how this whole thread may come full circle to having to discuss @Typhoon Tip and his global warming thesis. 

Now this topic is relevant where 1-2C temp anomalies greatly alter the specific outcomes at the margin. And a bunch of us are —curiously— at the margin...I know, I know, it’s still early December climo, which is far from “peak winter” for a chunk of SNE. But I can’t help but look at everything for my area and connect a NWS forecasted 4” snowfall for my back yard on December 5, with a near perfect track/storm bombing in the GOM where we should be talking feet. Ultimately I think this forecast busts low. But* the fact that less than 6” is a high probability at this hr is quite something, imo. Everything would make much more sense if the date was Nov 20, and not Dec 5th... Which I guess is all I’m trying to say...

 

Not to derail the thread ..it's been a rather nicely focused, information-worthy ... 

But I happen to agree with you. The "flop" direction ... ( perhaps even the "synergistic" tendency as a separate metric) in marginal/marginality seem warmer than prior generation/decades spanning way back.  Problem is that we're talking about the realm of nuance and subtleties - decimals and lacking "obviousness."  That's why I put synergistic in quotes/parenthetical, because it's like the 'emergence' patterning?

 ..I guess in a simply terms, 'the dice are sort of weighted to flop marginal set ups at our latitude ...warmer than 50 years ago'

Shouldn't really offend people - LOL.  I think part of the apprehension ... when not outright resent, is because this/these sort of ideas ... they are topics situated in the general implication/notion what people just don't like:             GW

...anything related to that never seems to set well without one of three most likely reactions: 

vitriol,      ... organized 'ebullient' skepticism where the bias against is tactically more difficult to detect,    ...ignored all-together..   

... climate change doesn't have a direct corporeal 'red hand'.  One cannot feel GW directly.  It is thus too easily questioned ... You need Ray's sociological acumen and or some other psycho-babble input to stitch the cause-and-effect the rest of the way...but, I am strongly suspectful that lacking a direct physical sensibility enables indeferrance ... denial happens because it can... and the catch-22 ( which I know because I was raised by an Anthropologist parent ) is that tribes and communities are wired to protect traditional views.. because they are survival cues.  When change ripples through populations?  Wars have began that way ...  fascinating actually... 

Anywho... I don't have a problem with stepping back to an 'orbital perspective' and suggesting that, gee  ... GW is real, at some point one's region may manifest therein... Even if it is subtle or nuanced...

[klw]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dec 23, 1997.

Ayer, MA had like 8" in an hour.

Thanks

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/winter/boxpns_dec23.txt

...Middlesex County...
Ayer           final           21.0  (8.0 between 1030am-1130am)
Westford       300 PM          18.0
West Townsend  150 PM          16.5
Tyngsboro      220 PM          16.0
Hopkinton      400 PM          15.5
Acton          125 PM          15.0
Chelmsford     1240 PM         15.0  (6.0 between 11am-1230pm)
Littleton      1240 PM         15.0
Townsend       1210 PM         13.5
North Woburn   155 PM          10.7
Lexington      300 PM          10.5
Dracut         130 PM          10.0
Natick         1235 PM          9.5
Woburn Ctr.    145 PM           9.0
Acton          1120 AM          9.0
North Woburn   1240 PM          8.5
Waltham        1150 AM          6.0

Hillsborough County...
Nashua          400 PM         19.5
Amherst         305 PM         17.5
Bedford         400 PM         14.0
Hollis         1150 AM         10.0

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, klw said:

Thanks

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/winter/boxpns_dec23.txt

...Middlesex County...
Ayer           final           21.0  (8.0 between 1030am-1130am)
Westford       300 PM          18.0
West Townsend  150 PM          16.5
Tyngsboro      220 PM          16.0
Hopkinton      400 PM          15.5
Acton          125 PM          15.0
Chelmsford     1240 PM         15.0  (6.0 between 11am-1230pm)
Littleton      1240 PM         15.0
Townsend       1210 PM         13.5
North Woburn   155 PM          10.7
Lexington      300 PM          10.5
Dracut         130 PM          10.0
Natick         1235 PM          9.5
Woburn Ctr.    145 PM           9.0
Acton          1120 AM          9.0
North Woburn   1240 PM          8.5
Waltham        1150 AM          6.0

Hillsborough County...
Nashua          400 PM         19.5
Amherst         305 PM         17.5
Bedford         400 PM         14.0
Hollis         1150 AM         10.0

That's legit crazy. I'm not that young but I thought Pi day was the hardest I'd ever see snow fall (a one-hour portion where 5, potentially up to 6" fell)

[RDRY]

Berks still well outside forecasted warning snow region -- as it was when the WSW was issued yesterday afternoon. Seemed like an odd jumping-the-gun call, especially for this area.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Funny knowing how in the Catskills there may not even be so much as any rainfall.

True but you have a lot more margin for error than most. You’ll get the goods eventually.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to derail the thread ..it's been a rather nicely focused, information-worthy ... 

But I happen to agree with you. The "flop" direction ... ( perhaps even the "synergistic" tendency as a separate metric) in marginal/marginality seem warmer than prior generation/decades spanning way back.  Problem is that we're talking about the realm of nuance and subtleties - decimals and lacking "obviousness."  That's why I put synergistic in quotes/parenthetical, because it's like the 'emergence' patterning?

 ..I guess in a simply terms, 'the dice are sort of weighted to flop marginal set ups at our latitude ...warmer than 50 years ago'

Shouldn't really offend people - LOL.  I think part of the apprehension ... when not outright resent, is because this/these sort of ideas ... they are topics situated in the general implication/notion what people just don't like:             GW

...anything related to that never seems to set well without one of three most likely reactions: 

vitriol,      ... organized 'ebullient' skepticism where the bias against is tactically more difficult to detect,    ...ignored all-together..   

... climate change doesn't have a direct corporeal 'red hand'.  One cannot feel GW directly.  It is thus too easily questioned ... You need Ray's sociological acumen and or some other psycho-babble input to stitch the cause-and-effect the rest of the way...but, I am strongly suspectful that lacking a direct physical sensibility enables indeferrance ... denial happens because it can... and the catch-22 ( which I know because I was raised by an Anthropologist parent ) is that tribes and communities are wired to protect traditional views.. because they are survival cues.  When change ripples through populations?  Wars have began that way ...  fascinating actually... 

Anywho... I don't have a problem with stepping back to an 'orbital perspective' and suggesting that, gee  ... GW is real, at some point one's region may manifest therein... Even if it is subtle or nuanced...

I agree with you on that.

[Chrisrotary12]

37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

End map

Well it was nice knowing you all. Will connect back in in a month once the power grid is restored.

[Heisy]

I think I’m gonna head somewhere off the  highway in Concord. I drive a sports car and I’m not able to leave until like 5pm tonight so a 6 hour drive I’ll just be beating it, but I don’t wanna drive on rough roads

[klw]

3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I think I’m gonna head somewhere off the  highway in Concord. I drive a sports car and I’m not able to leave until like 5pm tonight so a 6 hour drive I’ll just be beating it, but I don’t wanna drive on rough roads

Chasing a snow storm in New England in a sports car- what could go wrong?

 

Please tell us you at least have snow tires on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, klw said:

Thanks

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/winter/boxpns_dec23.txt

...Middlesex County...
Ayer           final           21.0  (8.0 between 1030am-1130am)
Westford       300 PM          18.0
West Townsend  150 PM          16.5
Tyngsboro      220 PM          16.0
Hopkinton      400 PM          15.5
Acton          125 PM          15.0
Chelmsford     1240 PM         15.0  (6.0 between 11am-1230pm)
Littleton      1240 PM         15.0
Townsend       1210 PM         13.5
North Woburn   155 PM          10.7
Lexington      300 PM          10.5
Dracut         130 PM          10.0
Natick         1235 PM          9.5
Woburn Ctr.    145 PM           9.0
Acton          1120 AM          9.0
North Woburn   1240 PM          8.5
Waltham        1150 AM          6.0

Hillsborough County...
Nashua          400 PM         19.5
Amherst         305 PM         17.5
Bedford         400 PM         14.0
Hollis         1150 AM         10.0

I had about a foot in that..one of my favorite events. Underrated and unexpected. I was a junior in HS, and it completely caught Wilmington High School off guard. I remember sitting in algebra starting out the window as it transitioned to snow about mid to late morning...I immediately suspected a positive bust from the 3 or so inches that was expected. We came out into the parking lot a few hours later and everyone was elated....snowfall fights abound...I did some wheelies, and bang...white-ass xmas during a raging super el nino.

That was it for that winter.

The End-