CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty solid tick east from 06z....which was admittedly a western outlier compared to other guidance. That would obliterate ORH and my hood I think. It would haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty solid tick east from 06z....which was admittedly a western outlier compared to other guidance. That would obliterate ORH and my hood I think. Post that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Post that? Here’s your fix... first 12z run in the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Wow just saw the 06z GFS. What a clobbering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 The 12z NAM should continue to tick west here back toward the other guidance. 06z made a nice jump but was still pretty far east. This looks better down south with the southern stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Post that? Death band 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Here’s your fix... first 12z run in the bag. Wow, NE third of state gets clobbered.,,I'm not too far off from the real goods in Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 You all better be taking pictures tomorrow afternoon. Gonna look wild in comparison to my sensible weather only really looking like cloudy and breezy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can always tell by his reverse psych posts. He knows he’s in Jack zone and posts.. “ I’ll probably get less than I did in October storm” I didn't post that that was probable... was just wondering. I think 6-9" in my area is reasonable. I doubt I get a foot+ That would require poundage for a long time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 yikes at that HRRR run. I'm having a hard time buying those totals, even at 7:1 for my 'hood. Are the dynamics that good to flip to snow for that long inside of I95 in PWM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: For the Mets and smarter folks . I notice for the track the winds don’t have much e/ene Inflow at all. Will this place more emphasis on other factors performing or does it just sort of limit dynamic cooling to rates and Not (orographic lift over Orh Hill’s and also not wring out moisture on E slopes . I.E jack could be anywhere it pounds super hard Shoulder season events often are primarily driven by latent heat processes. Given that there isn't serious antecedent cold, or strong advective processes for getting cold into the region, this one seems like it will be no different. The biggest latent heat process will be latent heat of melting. Throw a ton of snow in the column and you will cool it by melting those snowflakes and taking heat from the boundary layer. So yes, if you have high rate precipitation you can flip faster and stay snow longer. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The biggest thing I’d worry about is that the low levels start pretty warm. 925 is still warm on Saturday morning so there’s definitely going to be big dynamics needed. It looks like we get them but I could see it taking a little while to flip. Even the typically cool in precip NAM has the lower boundary layer torched to start. So there will definitely be some work to do with getting down to around just the lowest 1000-1500 ft above freezing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 yeah NAM further N on it's 12z run it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Enjoy guys! Looks like everything is coming together for a nice early season storm. This was a fun one to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, tunafish said: yikes at that HRRR run. I'm having a hard time buying those totals, even at 7:1 for my 'hood. Are the dynamics that good to flip to snow for that long inside of I95 in PWM? Enjoy the warm 50F today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Part of the reason I'm staying conservative out this way. It's just torchy to start. There is a 350' hill down the street from me (154').....this is the type event that may warrant a trespass. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Dual lows at 15z. Conv messing around with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Jeezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is a 350' hill down the street from me (154').....this is the type event that may warrant a trespass. Weenie from the dude that travels hundreds of miles for 6" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Weenie from the dude that travels hundreds of miles for 6" lol DIT would but not for snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Shoulder season events often are primarily driven by latent heat processes. Given that there isn't serious antecedent cold, or strong advective processes for getting cold into the region, this one seems like it will be no different. The biggest latent heat process will be latent heat of melting. Throw a ton of snow in the column and you will cool it by melting those snowflakes and taking heat from the boundary layer. So yes, if you have high rate precipitation you can flip faster and stay snow longer. Even the typically cool in precip NAM has the lower boundary layer torched to start. So there will definitely be some work to do with getting down to around just the lowest 1000-1500 ft above freezing. Yeah I envision the snowfall aspect being like a 4-6 hour event for the meat of it over lower elevations....maybe an extra couple hours for places like ORH. It's obviously a tough forecast still because we know that there is potential to dump 10" in 5-6 hours, but that also there is potential that it only accumulates to like 3-4" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 The NAM pukes and rallies to get back to the party finally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 This has the makings of a quick thump for those who get under that banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12z NAM definitely more N and W compared to 6z A crushing for interior central-eastern SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Good god....that is a ridiculous run for like ORH/495 belt through 33 hours...and getting up into a good chunk of NH and S ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Nevermind looking at crude graphics. NAM is good W of 495. Sloppy as you get toward 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Gets slotty a bit inside 495. Don't expect much near BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I envision the snowfall aspect being like a 4-6 hour event for the meat of it over lower elevations....maybe an extra couple hours for places like ORH. It's obviously a tough forecast still because we know that there is potential to dump 10" in 5-6 hours, but that also there is potential that it only accumulates to like 3-4" of slop. That's what the HRRR is doing. Like 6-7 straight hours of 1-2"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Here’s your fix... first 12z run in the bag. Oh’ good, I’ll be able to get some raking in on Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Nashua Narcan Nuke 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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