HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I was wondering that, too......kind of RGEM type thermal issue. I was just interpreting verbatim. E or W of 12z? edit: this reply was meant for Seminole wrt Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I was wondering that, too......kind of RGEM type thermal issue. I was just interpreting verbatim. Oh ha. I thought that was directed at the straw man .. it’s all good. yeah no way the GFS scores holding liquid that long when the sub-700 is getting flipped over by intense UVM ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, rimetree said: Are models entering wobble mode now? Seems like we're going to be shifting east and west over the next 36 hours albeit in smaller increments as we get closer. At least up here, these moves from 18z to 00z were not wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: E or W of 12z? A bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll sick Wolfie on him. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: glad you said it, 925 also crashes at around 48 hrs.. Miscommunication. I thought you meant the solution verbatim. I have no issue with it being too warm given the scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A bit west. yeah, Canadian is west of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Miscommunication. I thought you meant the solution verbatim. I have no issue with it being too warm given the scenario. all good, I did worry when I saw that dry air not too far away, if we get shitty rates then I assume I will be stuck with light rain and 34 while is snowing at 1000ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Miscommunication. I thought you meant the solution verbatim. I have no issue with it being too warm given the scenario. Thanks for explaining yourself. I thought with the crashing 850/925 it would snow much further East and south than depicted on those always suspect clowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A bit west. Thanks. The bumps West are a little surprising to me but let’s see what tomorrow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 What time to we get to interpret the UKIE tea leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: What time to we get to interpret the UKIE tea leaves Those same two low-res maps again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 GGEM deserves some credit on this one. It has quietly been very consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Thanks. The bumps West are a little surprising to me but let’s see what tomorrow brings. CMC looks about the same, maybe a hair north and east at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Thanks. The bumps West are a little surprising to me but let’s see what tomorrow brings. I’m not sure one should be… I’ve been saying all along .... should the northern stream comes over the border over the lakes and it’s more intense ...it was under assimilated or under sampled because it was passing through a bit of a data shadowing up there then the phase is going to torque the flow more ...the storm ends up being pulled in closer im not saying it’s good or bad I’m just talking about the storm track is the feedback from strength of the troposphere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah, Canadian is west of 12Z Canadian isn’t west of 12z . It’s also a tad faster . It’s a tad stronger and Iift is intense around Bos /128 metro as it flips that area for 2-5” . Thou track isn’t west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Canadian is almost dead nuts on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What time to we get to interpret the UKIE tea leaves You can get it out to 36h on plymouth state pretty early but then we have to wait until like 1140-1145 on meteocentre to get anything else including precip maps Here’s 850 and 500 at 36h 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just like to see a faster deepening from Ukie which I would lean toward seeing in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Canadian is almost dead nuts on 12z. A bit faster and better developed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just watched my local met, Ryan H on wvit in CT. He will not side with either solution yet. He said 1 model has the storm walloping CT with heavy rain changing to Heavy Snow Saturday. Then he said the other model is way out to sea and not really doing much for us. He does have a first alert for Saturday for the potential for a major storm. Said that Bob maxon ( other met ) Will and should have a better handle on the storm tomorrow morning. He also said it's not often where things are so up in the air only 36 hours out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Just watched my local met, Ryan H on wvit in CT. He will not side with either solution yet. He said 1 model has the storm walloping CT with heavy rain changing to Heavy Snow Saturday. Then he said the other model is way out to sea and not really doing much for us. He does have a first alert for Saturday for the potential for a major storm. Said that Bob maxon ( other met ) Will and should have a better handle on the storm tomorrow morning. He also said it's not often where things are so up in the air only 36 hours out. I said a lot without saying anything lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Just watched my local met, Ryan H on wvit in CT. He will not side with either solution yet. He said 1 model has the storm walloping CT with heavy rain changing to Heavy Snow Saturday. Then he said the other model is way out to sea and not really doing much for us. He does have a first alert for Saturday for the potential for a major storm. Said that Bob maxon ( other met ) Will and should have a better handle on the storm tomorrow morning. He also said it's not often where things are so up in the air only 36 hours out. I think the issue there is how quickly it develops....I wouldn't be worried about the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I said a lot without saying anything lol Politician? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I said a lot without saying anything lol It’s better to hear you say this than say it’s gonna rain only!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I said a lot without saying anything lol This forecast sucks for being so close. Trying to remember the last time the models were so volatile inside of 48h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 The GEM looks like the 18z EURO to me...just warmer thermals. It has the intense stinger in NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 LOL at watching TV mets. That's for little old grannies who need to know if they need an umbrella tomorrow or a sunhat. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The GEM looks like the 18z EURO to me...just warmer thermals. It has the intense stinger in NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Just watched my local met, Ryan H on wvit in CT. He will not side with either solution yet. He said 1 model has the storm walloping CT with heavy rain changing to Heavy Snow Saturday. Then he said the other model is way out to sea and not really doing much for us. He does have a first alert for Saturday for the potential for a major storm. Said that Bob maxon ( other met ) Will and should have a better handle on the storm tomorrow morning. He also said it's not often where things are so up in the air only 36 hours out. We watched as well. It’s the right approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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