Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

[Typhoon Tip]

Not personally impressed with the ICON performance but ... most models scoring C .. C- on this so it may get cut a break. ...save the Euro, which despite some recent cackling/street cred has been more consistent within acceptable error 

anyway this run may very well be the most impressive cinema to date bar none. ... 

sumilar to what Will was saying re the RG’ ... not sure I buy ICONic dynamics in CCB R++ rain ball without a more aggressive ptype conversion. It does eventually go over but pussy foots around 

[NECT]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok, we can hold it right here.  I'll take it.   Or is it "We take".  Did I do that right?

Bruh - you're close.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Ok, we can hold it right here.  I'll take it.   Or is it "We take".  Did I do that right?

Always refer to yourself in the plural in favorable outcomes, even if you live alone in a wilderness yurt. 

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

And it’s mostly rain. 

Yeah, same for you, while less than 40 miles to your NW they get a foot and a half, lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Those weenie bell maps are so bad.

Outside of far northern ORH and out west to the berks that was a pretty meh run.

Certainly feasible....I think the GFS and Euro are the goal posts.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well.. I wouldn't say that. It puts a lot of central and northern Connecticut back in the game. And we are southern New England

You have to understand when SEMA folk say SNE...they refer to the love triangle of Boston, Orh, Taunton. Everyone outside of there are considered new yorkers or canadians.

[dendrite]

Max omega right in the DGZ around H55-H6. We pound.

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It wasn't premature....we are 24 hours from the start with the mid level banding modeled in that area, regardless of what the SPED clown maps show.

Given the low position at the time of the WSW call, the low was way too far east on all the major models, except the GFS. The NWS mets must have anticipated a westward shift.

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sucking H2O

It's all the same to me.

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Yeah, same for you, while less than 40 miles to your NW they get a foot and a half, lol.

We take. 

[Bostonseminole]

I'm sticking with 4-6" can look at it again tomorrow if trends west further.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

Given the low position at the time of the WSW call, the low was way too far east on all the major models, except the GFS. The NWS mets must have anticipated a westward shift.

The NWS mets know how to interpret model data. You do not.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

let him go ray lol 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

let him go ray lol 

I'll sick Wolfie on him.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

We take. 

That is a sort of now cast . I could see the 800’ hill in neighboring Hollis see a foot while I end with 2” but man that’s close . MHT has warning snows for most of city and a foot one town W and N. 

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You have to understand when SEMA folk say SNE...they refer to the love triangle of Boston, Orh, Taunton. Everyone outside of there are considered new yorkers or canadians.

Lol.. That's funny because we consider you guys the lobsta pottas... The cape and the islands... But not SNE..lolol ( jk )

[DomNH]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That is a sort of now cast . I could see the 800’ hill in neighboring Hollis see a foot while I end with 2” but man that’s close . MHT has warning snows for most of city and a foot one town W and N 

Yeah we are really on the razor’s edge between plowable cement and some pity slush as the low pulls away. Gut says cement but it’s going to be close. 

[Bostonseminole]

4 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Given the low position at the time of the WSW call, the low was way too far east on all the major models, except the GFS. The NWS mets must have anticipated a westward shift.

still is only a watch, easily can be dropped to advisories, so they have plenty of wiggle room.

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The NWS mets know how to interpret model data. You do not.

Obviously. Yet plenty on here also go by model output and even the pros were dubious of a western Mass hit this afternoon.

[rimetree]

Are models entering wobble mode now? Seems like we're going to be shifting east and west over the next 36 hours albeit in smaller increments as we get closer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

128-495 may very well get 4-8", but not if the GFS verified.

[ORH_wxman]

So we’ve got 3 trends west (NAM, RGEM, and GFS...4 if we count icon) and 1 E at 00z (RPM)

GFS def the west outlier at the moment. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah ... no way folks. The 850mb 0C isotherms regionally collapses E of Logan and the model holds heavy R type fall rates under deep UVM in the CCB ...

that’s busting too warm ... column definitely implodes at the same cooling rate plumb to the surface there over interior eastern MA/N RI

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

So we’ve got 3 trends west (NAM, RGEM, and GFS...4 if we count icon) and 1 E at 00z (RPM)

GFS def the west outlier at the moment. 

 

Yea, that is the left goal post....Euro east.

I still like my First Call at the moment.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

So we’ve got 3 trends west (NAM, RGEM, and GFS...4 if we count icon) and 1 E at 00z (RPM)

GFS def the west outlier at the moment. 

 

I thought RGEM was the furthest west going over the canal area.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, RDRY said:

Obviously. Yet plenty on here also go by model output and even the pros were dubious of a western Mass hit this afternoon.

Well, let’s see what tomorrow looks like. I am still not sold on plowable snow out here.  I would need to wake up to all of the models ticking back NW and amped to be more confident here.  That being said, a bombing system between the BM and Chatham would certainly have some great ML magic for somebody west of the river.. 

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

So we’ve got 3 trends west (NAM, RGEM, and GFS...4 if we count icon) and 1 E at 00z (RPM)

GFS def the west outlier at the moment. 

 

canadian looks similar to GFS, maybe slightly east from what I can tell

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah ... no way folks. The 850mb 0C isotherms regionally collapses E of Logan and the model holds heavy R type fall rates under deep UVM in the CCB ...

that’s busting too warm ... column definitely implodes at the same cooling rate plumb to the surface there over interior eastern MA/N RI

Yea, I was wondering that, too......kind of RGEM type thermal issue.

I was just interpreting verbatim.

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah ... no way folks. The 850mb 0C isotherms regionally collapses E of Logan and the model holds heavy R type fall rates under deep UVM in the CCB ...

that’s busting too warm ... column definitely implodes at the same cooling rate plumb to the surface there over interior eastern MA/N RI

glad you said it, 925 also crashes at around 48 hrs..

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

I thought RGEM was the furthest west going over the canal area.

Yeah maybe technically on the slp track but I’m looking aloft where it matters most for who gets snow and how much.