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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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An improvement over 18z with better stream interaction earlier... but at 12z Saturday, H5 overall remains a little more open when on today's 12z NAM it was already tilting... keeps things a little more progressive

Wouldn't make any definite trend conclusions before 0z tonight

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still pretty damned putrid on the NAM. Slight improvement. 

I feel like the NAM likes to do this around the 48 hr mark only to start backtracking by 6z the next morning. 

I thought the new hrrr at 0z looked realistic, just noticed that it goes out to 48 hrs now.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There is a crap ton of convection that forms off the mid-Atlantic coast...so many low centers on the run all focused towards the convection. 

When there is a lot of convection involved it always seem to interfere with the slp track to the east

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14 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I feel like the NAM likes to do this around the 48 hr mark only to start backtracking by 6z the next morning. 

I thought the new hrrr at 0z looked realistic, just noticed that it goes out to 48 hrs now.

The hrrr does. Starting to think those snow maps that Ray screenshots off his work computer are looking more realistic then all the other vendor maps.

 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The hrrr does. Starting to think those snow maps that Ray screenshots off his work computer are looking more realistic then all the other vendor maps.

 

Yeah but those snow maps weren’t because of complete lack of precip like the NAM. They were a temp issue

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