RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That 18z Euro and 12z both gave me about 5.5”. I’d be fine with that if that happened. We would be take the under my man. The euro tick easts after being so wound up never reverse..they just keep ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 This euro run actually increased totals slightly across NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: what site are these maps from? WSI. They are the crude low resolution maps but they come out really fast. Powderfreak posted the hi-res from weatherbell I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like this was ran out of @40/70 Benchmark basement 3-6” here... we take and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Best of luck to you folks out east. No joy down here, but it's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 For enthusiasts ...you want these subtle increasingly progressive appeals... not hanging around... I'd be happy to compromise on less residence... 4-6" ...yeah maybe 10 in a meso band... get 'er on outta here ...and I think we're watching the 8th more closely then presently aware. - not the time nor thread for that but it relates due to wave ordering in the synoptic bigger picture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We would be take the under my man. The euro tick easts after being so wound up never reverse..they just keep ticking. Ya maybe so...I guess we’ll see. If it goes any further East at 0z, then ya we’re totally done for sure. Oh well, as you said this is the first legit threat of the winter season..so it’s fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Next low also looks interesting on the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: For enthusiasts ...you want these subtle increasingly progressive appeals... not hanging around... I'd be happy to compromise on less residence... 4-6" ...yeah maybe 10 in a meso band... get 'er on outta here ...and I think we're watching the 8th more closely then presently aware. - not the time nor thread for that but it relates due to wave ordering in the synoptic bigger picture. Slightly OT, but... You prob didn’t see this, but the 18z euro only goes out to 90h so we can’t see beyond this, but it’s phasing 3 shortwaves now behind the 12/5-6 system, most aggressive I’ve seen.....imagine what this would be if we can get the ULL to lift out in the maritimes fast enough. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 3-6” here... we take and run. We get that and I'll be doing naked snow angels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Slightly OT, but... You prob didn’t see this, but the 18z euro only goes out to 90h so we can’t see beyond this, but it’s phasing 3 shortwaves now behind the 12/5-6 system, most aggressive I’ve seen.....imagine what this would be if we can get the ULL to lift out in the maritimes fast enough. I need your Saturday storm to move out quickly. Can you make sure to hurry it along? Lol. The airmass is so much better down here for that 2nd system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Slightly OT, but... You prob didn’t see this, but the 18z euro only goes out to 90h so we can’t see beyond this, but it’s phasing 3 shortwaves now behind the 12/5-6 system, most aggressive I’ve seen.....imagine what this would be if we can get the ULL to lift out in the maritimes fast enough. yea... just indulge me this one statement but I posted about this in the Dec thread... I'm suspicious of that in the > direction frankly - I'm not shocked at seeing that and I'd also say that it is sufficient already there ( note the short -wave ridging ejecting along the NJ to SNE region is actually a portend ... ) That sig diving wind max west of Chi town factors ... also, - the 18z GFS tri-wave phases too fwiw - That may not be right exact but I believe the 8th should be watched - yeah man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 That next one behind the 5th would be another good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That next one behind the 5th would be another good one. Is that one for mid week next week? No one is talking about it except one quick mention of something to watch thats put to sea as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I have misled on this one... Definitely need to see a northwest trend of 70 miles on the 00z/4 cycle for ne PA, nw corner CT to get anything more than 1-3" As everyone knows, i see the trend too... big development too late except central and eastern New England. I'll ride out the model sways... but I need to see a nw trend when I wake ups and look at the models tomorrow morning. I do think models are improving even from 10-30 years ago. What we have now are ensembles that help us gauge confidence and that helps many of us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Is that one for mid week next week? No one is talking about it except one quick mention of something to watch thats put to sea as of now? Yes, But 'not enough room at the moment to get it closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Dang it. Looking good right into BOS. Enjoy you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 When Walt speaks, we listen, we are honored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Is that one for mid week next week? No one is talking about it except one quick mention of something to watch thats put to sea as of now? There’s still a lot of wave spacing issues with that one...BUT....without getting too off topic for this current thread (I’ll indulge for a second since we’re in the dead zone before 00z runs), the 18z euro solution of phasing all 3 shortwaves allows the system to “wait out” the 12/5-6 system for an extra tick or two, and that could be enough to allow enough ridging to form between the two systems (Tip pointed out the ridging showing up in NJ just a few min ago). If that can happen, then it becomes a serious threat for the I-95 corridor mid-Atlantic perhaps all the way into New England....baroclincity has already been rejuvenated by 90h down in the Carolinas and VA so it has a path to significance. But it will require that phasing and delay for the wave-spacing to become a little more palatable. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like this was ran out of @40/70 Benchmark basement Even cutting this in half is nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Certainly not...dumb statement. Maybe your fixated on Tip.you’re .always insulting the guy? Whoo.... lol. I'm just screwing with you. NBD, but I'm quite confident that if you took a poll, the vast majority believes that you own a DIT pin cushion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Even cutting this in half is nice. Jack is ORH county to KCON on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, wdrag said: I have misled on this one... Definitely need to see a northwest trend of 70 miles on the 00z/4 cycle for ne PA, nw corner CT to get anything more than 1-3" As everyone knows, i see the trend too... big development too late except central and eastern New England. I'll ride out the model sways... but I need to see a nw trend when I wake ups and look at the models tomorrow morning. I do think models are improving even from 10-30 years ago. What we have now are ensembles that help us gauge confidence and that helps many of us. I don't believe this reflects much, Walt and your insights were just as valued/veracious as any. This particular synoptic evolution leading posed some unique challenges ..despite the 30 years tech advances as you note, here we are at 60 or < lead yet are uneasy over phase proficiency. I'm still not fully convinced we won't expose/impose some morphology when the eastern Manitoba wind max samples south, and it won't take much to torque around a westerly adjustment - as you noted 2 degrees of longitude is doable at 60 hours. We can only benefit from what we give said tech and wager our experience. Not sure the modeling prep is that infallible over interior Canadian shield and having past S of the Alaskan sector - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, wdrag said: I have misled on this one... Definitely need to see a northwest trend of 70 miles on the 00z/4 cycle for ne PA, nw corner CT to get anything more than 1-3" As everyone knows, i see the trend too... big development too late except central and eastern New England. I'll ride out the model sways... but I need to see a nw trend when I wake ups and look at the models tomorrow morning. I do think models are improving even from 10-30 years ago. What we have now are ensembles that help us gauge confidence and that helps many of us. Walt, I've been waiting for the "late development" rug to get pulled out from under NYS for a few days. W NE is close...as you know, fine line between midlevel haves and have nots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jack is ORH county to KCON on that. Has looked that way since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 51 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't get caught on the wrong side of the Rt 1 line on the Midcoast. Pit 2 is a mile north. Pulling a 6-spot will give some of us a foot on the season. In the words of the great Adam Sandler--'not too shabby.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: Don't get caught on the wrong side of the Rt 1 line on the Midcoast. Pit 2 is a mile north. Pulling a 6-spot will give some of us a foot on the season. In the words of the great Adam Sandler--'not too shabby.' I’m fully prepared for Dave and others to have 10x my season total by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 It's really hard to get 12+" very often. I'd be surprised if we crack that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I don’t care about my backyard nearly as much as I care about the Berkshire’s and Southern Vermont ski areas getting some decent snow. Right now that seems to be a long shot. Oh’ what the hell, I would rather see T-blizz be happy then worry about skiing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 One of the best things about systems like this are the invariable melts that take place while waiting for the change to snow. And the best of all are those instances when the change never comes. I remember of those those a few years back......I was so happy we had gone up to Bartlett in that one. Chris texted me that it stayed rain while I was enjoying something like 15" of powder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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