rimetree Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Would like to see GFS tick east some more to get more than a sloppy inch or two. Maybe a 12kNAM/GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think the GYX map for coastal areas like PWM is underdone. So you're saying I should drive......:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: So you're saying I should drive......:) You’ll do well enough out 495 way I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm thinking Pit 1 and Pit 2 may fare similar--so no angst as to whether to travel. Meanwhile, it's nice to see the board so alive. Touch keeping up with the posts. Go to Maine house... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think the GYX map for coastal areas like PWM is underdone. What’s your old time feeling/ call SNE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, rimetree said: Would like to see GFS tick east some more to get more than a sloppy inch or two. Maybe a 12kNAM/GFS blend. Ugh. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 41 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I did have a snow map ready to go. Pulled it at the last minute. Will revive at 11.... maybe. Trend snow for ct....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just south of UCONN here Was loving the 12z runs for these parts... 18z squashes that excitement, albeit at least we still have a better shot than, say, Waterbury. if things “adjust” a bit westward for 00z we’d be likely to get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What’s your old time feeling/ call SNE? You should get 4-8, ORH NE 6+. BOS SE 2-5. I’m thinking 3-6 for mby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Too bad no stout hi to the north...that’s a big problem. Relying on the dynamics is just so risky. Been burned before when hedging chances on that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Box AFD (Nash) with quite the self-deprecating, open voice... and a message to hobbyists to boot... some excerpts: Models: still quite a bit of variation and the models are struggling with exactly how a northern stream disturbance currently diving south along the Ontario/Manitoba border and southern stream energy across the ArkLaTex region will merge later tomorrow... A 50 mile difference in track, or 6 hour timing difference in development means all the difference. What I`m trying to say here is make sure you have big error bars around the forecast. This is a great situation where probabilistic forecasts are much better than a single deterministic one. But since I`ve got to make a deterministic forecast, we`ll just have to work with it. Scenario:... NAM is believed to be a little too far east. More or less went with a 12z Canadian/ECMWF concept... Snowfall: ...I went with about 7-8:1 ratios during the day Saturday. As we get into the evening, rising to 9-11:1. For those playing at home and viewing snowfall predictions from online weather models, please be aware that most use a strict 10:1 ratio which will get you into trouble more often than not. Although I`m going with the lower snow ratios, there is an unknown if we end up getting a mesoscale band or well developed comma head forming. If that were to happen, that means we`ve got strong vertical motion in the snow growth zone resulting in large dendrites and a much higher SLR. After putting everything in a blender, I came out with amounts over 6" across higher elevations of MA with 2-4" widespread at lower elevations. Perhaps an 1" as you get just inland of the coast. Chances of my forecast being perfect? Pretty low. Snowfall amount probabilities suggest the potential for 10"+ across the higher terrain. Later forecasts will hopefully fine tune things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: You should get 4-8, ORH NE 6+. BOS SE 2-5. I’m thinking 3-6 for mby Nice! Us old timers know how these work. I’ve got 5-10 hills and 2-4 lower elevations. Models will ebb and flow. I’d say when we wake up tomorrow theres a lot of happy people after the overnight data gets assimilated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Box AFD (Nash) with quite the self-deprecating, open voice... and a message to hobbyists to boot... some excerpts: Models: still quite a bit of variation and the models are struggling with exactly how a northern stream disturbance currently diving south along the Ontario/Manitoba border and southern stream energy across the ArkLaTex region will merge later tomorrow... A 50 mile difference in track, or 6 hour timing difference in development means all the difference. What I`m trying to say here is make sure you have big error bars around the forecast. This is a great situation where probabilistic forecasts are much better than a single deterministic one. But since I`ve got to make a deterministic forecast, we`ll just have to work with it. Scenario:... NAM is believed to be a little too far east. More or less went with a 12z Canadian/ECMWF concept... Snowfall: ...I went with about 7-8:1 ratios during the day Saturday. As we get into the evening, rising to 9-11:1. For those playing at home and viewing snowfall predictions from online weather models, please be aware that most use a strict 10:1 ratio which will get you into trouble more often than not. Although I`m going with the lower snow ratios, there is an unknown if we end up getting a mesoscale band or well developed comma head forming. If that were to happen, that means we`ve got strong vertical motion in the snow growth zone resulting in large dendrites and a much higher SLR. After putting everything in a blender, I came out with amounts over 6" across higher elevations of MA with 2-4" widespread at lower elevations. Perhaps an 1" as you get just inland of the coast. Chances of my forecast being perfect? Pretty low. Snowfall amount probabilities suggest the potential for 10"+ across the higher terrain. Later forecasts will hopefully fine tune things. It's only funny because he's exactly perfectly correct with this approach and probably the sanest possible subjective approach as well... I also tried to point out about the CSI/meso banding potential earlier and that's the biggest wild card in this... It doesn't matter if your snowing 7::1 if you get lightning/ thunder squall activity you'll dump excessive rates and when doing so, the ratio jumps/improves to 4/5 /hr rates.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: You should get 4-8, ORH NE 6+. BOS SE 2-5. I’m thinking 3-6 for mby That’s ambitious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: Jackman Jackpot. You won’t hear me complain one bit if NNE gets 2ft and we are the sacrificial lamb in SNE. I just want to ride and hopefully do some backcountry stiff soon with all the COVID restrictions at resorts. Still a wild amount of solutions on the table this far out. Having no frost or frozen ground sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 We need the east ticks to stop in the 91 corridor, as it is relying on dynamics to flip with a progressive system on a valley floor under 200' ASL west of the ORH Hills/NE CT Hills makes me pause for anything more than mood flakes to very light accumulations locally. Hopefully I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That’s ambitious. It’s also right. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That’s ambitious. Seems reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Seems reasonable to me The picture will be clearer after 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Having no frost or frozen ground sucks.Yeah, pretty useless right now, but if mother nature wants to dump 10-15" then let's do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Not sure if anyone's posted, but 18z GEFS are significantly more favorable for the coastal plain of SNE. Should I begin to invest in this further, or are thermals too borderline? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Boston crushes while TOL chokes on exhaust and cat paws? I doubt it’s that extreme. I see Ditty with plowable. 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He does A tweet about a particular run is not a forecast. You know better, we know you do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 49 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think the GYX map for coastal areas like PWM is underdone. Love to hear it. What's your rationale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Euro? think its just running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I doubt it’s that extreme. I see Ditty with plowable. A tweet about a particular run is not a forecast. You know better, we know you do. Enjoy the sledding and snowblowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Euro? 5 mins, I think we see a couple more tics east, That's my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 57 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We suck I wish I was born up there I’d like to be in interior EMA. The perfect spot for practically every coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 If only we had antecedent cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Enjoy the sledding and snowblowing I hope I can pull the sled out for the boy, that’s all I need. Last year I bought him a nice one before the early Dec KU that slotted us and we never used it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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