Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

3k nam seems to hit Boston and scooter better than the others over to far eastern Maine but that’s it 

Yeah, it has 11" in imh but the snow depth never gets to more than 2", lol.  These models are so hilarious.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Can't wait until the 0z HRRR tonight. That will go out to Saturday evening. I love following the HRRR to assess consistency/confidence. I thought all runs were running to 48-hours though as of Dec 1? 

The HRRRRRR at 48 hours sounds like the NAM at 384 to be honest. 

[wxeyeNH]

Trend is your friend.   That general trend taking everything the past 2 or 3 days has been east.  I just don't have a good feeling on this one for us up here.  They NH hype machine starts on the 6pm news tonight.

[dryslot]

[weathafella]

NAM is like a piece of chocolate-ya never know what you’re gonna get...

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The HRRRRRR at 48 hours sounds like the NAM at 384 to be honest. 

Another useless model, I don't bother with the HRRR until 24hrs out and even then...............

[RDRY]

The only model that showed anything close to warning snows in western Mass was the 12z GFS, with ensuing model runs trending further east. But the NWS just issued a WS Watch. Uh ....

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Trend is your friend.   That general trend taking everything the past 2 or 3 days has been east.  I just don't have a good feeling on this one for us up here.  They NH hype machine starts on the 6pm news tonight.

It does fit the trend of the southern stream continuing to slow down... there's still a lot of time left.  Could be big or a nothing burger still.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The HRRRRRR at 48 hours sounds like the NAM at 384 to be honest. 

It certainly is hit and miss (which even be said with the HRRR at 12 hours) but it's really great for assessing consistency and trends. So let's say the 0z HRRR tonight is in line with the NAM and then each subsequent run remains consistent...even though other guidance is suggesting otherwise, seeing the HRRR be consistent I think would be a strong indicator. not sure how well this works with winter weather but the idea works great with convection. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The one Ray uses is terribly low. Will mentioned it yesterday . Said it’s biased low 

Depends on the situation...generalizing algorithms is a fool's errand, so you seem like the right man for the job.

I like it for resolving precip type, but not mid level banding.

 

First Call...Final tomorrow.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/12/developing-coastal-storm-to-impact-area.html

[weatherwiz]

WSW starting to fly

[weatherwiz]

soggy flakes  

sounds like my cereal when I take too long to eat it

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The only model that showed anything close to warning snows in western Mass was the 12z GFS, with ensuing model runs trending further east. But the NWS just issued a WS Watch. Uh ....

Mid levels.

[Bostonseminole]

WSW 6+"

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mid levels.

And a somewhat early issuance as well. This will be interesting to watch unfold. Meteorology over modelogy?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I will take the cold hard rain in wind over 60mph from the east or northeast!  If the winds are northeasterly the NWS used to say during nor'easters that the northeast wind was unstable and therefore able to mix the hurricane force winds to the surface, like JUNO, NEMO and others!

[ORH_wxman]

18z RPM was out of Scooter's basement

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Honestly, I think the storm next week around the 8th looks more promising for the coast!

[KoalaBeer]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Trend is your friend.   That general trend taking everything the past 2 or 3 days has been east.  I just don't have a good feeling on this one for us up here.  They NH hype machine starts on the 6pm news tonight.

Haha it's kind of always funny seeing the local news a step behind the forum. They are going to use this mornings and afternoon model runs to hype up the potential for a significant warning criteria storm in NH, while we watch this evenings model runs live shunt this east and possibly give more significant impacts to SNE.

Not that I'm ready to jump ship for CNE or NNE on this as I alluded to in my last post....I just get a chuckle watching the local news rely on previous runs while mets on here are starting to discuss entirely different scenarios. Showing old data certainly adds to the "weatherman get paid to be wrong" mentality I hear the general public gripe about all the time but I also get why showing the most recent model runs on such short notice on a live broadcast is problematic especially before the meteorologist on staff hasn't had the time to fully analyze those said model runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RDRY said:

And a somewhat early issuance as well. This will be interesting to watch unfold. Meteorology over modelogy?

Exactly. The snowfall algorithm that I tout is superior with respect to distinguishing precip type issues, which is usually important for us. Most algorithms err by tallying mixed precvip as snow, which inflates the numbers. Mine does not to this, however, it is only based on the model, which usually will not resolve mid level banding properly. Thus it will miss the deformation axis to the NW of the low.

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z RPM was out of Scooter's basement

 

And basically 0" in the winter storm watch zone. Challenging forecast. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

WSW 6+"

Yeah. Only watches issued so far 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Ukie had 1.5-2.0" so that's very reasonable, One must not forget, That's a lot of moisture coming north from that southern S/W.

We haven't dried out from the last two inches. ️

[dryslot]

Here we go

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAM is like a piece of chocolate-ya never know what you’re gonna get...

Whenever I eat chocolate, I know exactly what I will get. 

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z RPM was out of Scooter's basement

 

We told him a page or two back. He needs to watch.

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. Only watches issued so far 

need to take the jeep out, been parked most of the year. Do some donuts in the snow.

[Snowcrazed71]

Well. The WSW are up for all of west central mass.. Western Vermont and eastern upper hudson Valley. That's def not from the NAM model..lol

[RDRY]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly. The snowfall algorithm that I tout is superior with respect to distinguishing precip type issues, which is usually important for us. Most algorithms err by tallying mixed precvip as snow, which inflates the numbers. Mine does not to this, however, it is only based on the model, which usually will not resolve mid level banding properly. Thus it will miss the deformation axis to the NW of the low.

The band would have to set up WAY north and west of most recent model runs.

[Modfan2]

Pretty soon it will be congrats Down East Maine and NS if it keeps trending east

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The band would have to set up WAY north and west of most recent model runs.

Are you talking about the QPF charts, or mid level model depictions? if the mid levels trend east, and/or the system matures later, then yes.......but not because the QPF chart simply doesn't show big amounts. Models mainly resolve precipitation from low level forcing, but are not skilled with mid level deformation...vastly underdone.