HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 NAM aside let’s see tonight’s trends on the globals. Weaker solutions would be troubling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Weenies heading to the tobin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Certainly a real possibility 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: NAM looks partly cloudy north and west of 495 Great, I always have work to do in the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 That's my weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: NAM aside let’s see tonight’s trends on the globals. Weaker solutions would be troubling. That’s really been my only concern . Weaker and East . I’ll travel to the snow but not by kayak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Let me be the first, Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 meh it's just a difference of capture/phase and when that occurs. this run just wasn't aligned with everything...but the pieces are still there. I don't think it was totally far off from a big hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 I've still got a few more leaves to rake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Let me be the first, Toss. I usually wait to toss until the GFS runs just to make sure the NAM didn’t sniff something out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I usually wait to toss until the GFS runs just to make sure the NAM didn’t sniff something out. You will learn quickly up here, The Nam is the first to go in the shitter, The next run will be tracking over the picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3k with a late attempt at some snow for NE MA into NH and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: You will learn quickly up here, The Nam is the first to go in the shitter. Let’s hope it’s wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You will learn quickly up here, The Nam is the first to go in the shitter. The NAM is good for ratings. It keeps everyone in the game until the day of the event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Let me be the first, Toss. Went from 1.40 to 0.11 QPF on this NAM run, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Let’s hope it’s wrong. Outside of 36 hrs, I don't give it much credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Steve posting aurora borealis 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: He has been awfully quiet about this Read the tea leaves Said a week ago if heights crash as depicted Brian's map is right Ray's wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Nam always does this before a big storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Outside of 36 hrs, I don't give it much credence. yeah, good for trends but not for accuracy, we could still get a tick east on the larger models.. but NAM is not my choice for accuracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Brian weenie tags me because he knows I'm right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Brian weenie tags me because he knows I'm right that was a classic weenie statement there! LOL 3 weenies for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 Meh... NAM beyond 48 hours... Probably lucky to have had the sort of "continuity" that we've had up to this point with this guidance. I was just commenting over in the Dec thread that you know we've predicated much on the assumption that the models ( if we're even thinking about it...) are cogent with their sampling/initializations of that crucial N/stream S/W ... that's gotta be accurate to accurately assess what happens during/proficiency of phasing ..timing ... all of it. It's up over the western shores of JB ... I dunno ..perhaps satellite soundings are wholly sufficient but I got a feeling that could also impost some shorter term morphologies on this thing when that starts cutting over Michigan 24 hours from now. So all of that ... plus, the NAM suffers from this sort of vicissitudes at those ranges anyway - ... I guess in short my thinking on this doesn't deviate at all based upon any a single 60 hour NAM solution - I'm sure no one else's does either, just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 I would hit 3k. Nammy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that was a classic weenie statement there! LOL Its true though Are you new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Congrats DE ME on this run, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 I'm certainly going to trust the 12z Euro solution and consensus of the globals over one run of 18z NAM....especially at the time frame we are talking (~48-60hrs out) but a weaker and more east solution would certainly suck. I'd rather the system be amped and more west drenching me with two inches of rain if that means ski country gets crushed. I'm going to be pissed if the major mountains in NH and ME smoke cirrus on this one. This is a big opportunity for resorts to be able to expand terrain and spread everyone out before the holiday rush, something that could prove vital to them saying open with recent COVID statistics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Its true though Are you new? that statement is one of the 7 stages of denial when the threat begins to fall apart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 Or ... here's an option that every wants to happen - this thing fumbles around and misses by undetectable nuances... but sufficiently large enough to also f'up the wave spacing so the 8th misses too - - man... shut down the web site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3k nam seems to hit Boston and scooter better than the others over to far eastern Maine but that’s it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Can't wait until the 0z HRRR tonight. That will go out to Saturday evening. I love following the HRRR to assess consistency/confidence. I thought all runs were running to 48-hours though as of Dec 1? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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