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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CT Rain
CT Rain

Sort of out on a limb here but here's our forecast. Wish me luck. 

weathafella
weathafella

Steve posting aurora borealis 

wdrag
wdrag

Good morning, Seldom post here. 1) A couple of things.  Snow ratios in MA/CT will in my opinion be down to 6 to 1 or something like...falling at 33F. That means half of those 10 to 1 amounts, and

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2020 at 12:39 AM, powderfreak said:

I hope you jack and get the monkey off your back.  My bar is low, just cover the grass again, lol.  Messenger east shuffles always happen so I like to have something to work to get to 3”.

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I feel pretty good about a solid 5” here. I would rather avoid an inch of rain beforehand. ;)  

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2020 at 12:37 AM, stormtracker said:

Miight need to look at our Alternatives of PIttsburg, NH or Chateugay NY.  Good thing is we're fluid.  But damn...Euro is killing us here

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No kidding. My camp in the Daks looks like an awesome spot with that set up. Kleenex material.

...and that may be all it is.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2020 at 12:40 AM, PhineasC said:

I feel pretty good about a solid 5” here. I would rather avoid an inch of rain beforehand. ;)  

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We've been discussing it summer and fall, but worth noting how unstable the Euro is these days.  If the GFS schools it at 72-90 hours again...we'll know for sure.  It definitely has some issues going on that makes it hard to trust at all.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Even digging into that run a bit.... those snow maps are over-done for sure on the eastern side (in this area).  This air mass is really marginal.

Over this way, even during intense precipitation rates the SFC temps are still sitting +1C. 

925m is pretty warm all things considered.  Reality says that's a BTV westward or Adirondacks bomber.  Time for it to go a bit east, ha.  What a thread the needle situation for someone.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-t925-7223600.thumb.png.002468bbbb7716aa55c268e9174cfd0c.png

 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2020 at 12:57 AM, mreaves said:

Lol. Pittsburg, NH. That is a tough drive. At least Chateaugay is interstate most of the way. 

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Hey, anything for the snow.   I gotta say...you New Englanders are letting me down.  I thought you guys could fart and it would turn into 2 feet of powder.   With this storm, y'all are the mid-Atlantic with an accent.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2020 at 1:00 AM, stormtracker said:

Hey, anything for the snow.   I gotta say...you New Englanders are letting me down.  I thought you guys could fart and it would turn into 2 feet of powder.   With this storm, y'all are the mid-Atlantic with an accent.  

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Synoptic storms do that, like a lottery system. Meso-scale storms like big lake effect or big upslope often don’t alter much in the lead up.  No “phasing” to figure out.  The features that make it snow are stationary, body of water or mountains.  These synoptic events are always the best on the Forum.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2020 at 1:05 AM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Everyone complaining about the Euro. If KORH receives >0.10" of QPF from this storm, then all complaints should be directed at the GFS which legitimately has 0.05" for the weekend at ORH.

Time will tell which one sucks!

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GFS always sucked...Euro has progressively stepped down to that level over the last few years. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2020 at 1:00 AM, stormtracker said:

Hey, anything for the snow.   I gotta say...you New Englanders are letting me down.  I thought you guys could fart and it would turn into 2 feet of powder.   With this storm, y'all are the mid-Atlantic with an accent.  

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You're the foreigner with the accent...............:lol:

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2020 at 12:54 AM, powderfreak said:

Even digging into that run a bit.... those snow maps are over-done for sure on the eastern side (in this area).  This air mass is really marginal.

Over this way, even during intense precipitation rates the SFC temps are still sitting +1C. 

925m is pretty warm all things considered.  Reality says that's a BTV westward or Adirondacks bomber.  Time for it to go a bit east, ha.  What a thread the needle situation for someone.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-t925-7223600.thumb.png.002468bbbb7716aa55c268e9174cfd0c.png

 

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The air mass has been the issue, Its a thread the needle at best.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2020 at 1:00 AM, stormtracker said:

Hey, anything for the snow.   I gotta say...you New Englanders are letting me down.  I thought you guys could fart and it would turn into 2 feet of powder.   With this storm, y'all are the mid-Atlantic with an accent.  

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  On 12/3/2020 at 1:08 AM, powderfreak said:

Synoptic storms do that.  Meso-scale storms like big lake effect or big upslope often don’t alter much in the lead up.  No “phasing” to figure out.  The features that make it snow are stationary.

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It’s good that PF chimed in here with the clarification; the 2 feet of powder from a hint of atmospheric disturbance is generally a mesoscale/mountain/NNE thing.

From what I’ve observed over the past several years, much of SNE has to work really hard for their snow.  It’s apparent from the weird “we just need to get this system to…” and “if we can keep that system from…” phraseology that is used.  One would conclude that if they don’t work hard enough, they simply don’t get the snow.  Sometimes there’s this reverse psychology thing that goes on as well, but it would seem like that would only hurt the overall effort?

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2020 at 1:24 AM, J.Spin said:

 

It’s good that PF chimed in here with the clarification; the 2 feet of powder from a hint of atmospheric disturbance is generally a mesoscale/mountain/NNE thing.

From what I’ve observed over the past several years, much of SNE has to work really hard for their snow.  It’s apparent from the weird “we just need to get this system to…” and “if we can keep that system from…” phraseology that is used.  One would conclude that if they don’t work hard enough, they simply don’t get the snow.  Sometimes there’s this reverse psychology thing that goes on as well, but it would seem like that would only hurt the overall effort?

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LOL good thing you don’t try to make friends in these threads. I think I can relate to these guys a lot better. You are like the Dr. Manhattan of snow. 

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