WmsptWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @showmethesnow If you get the chance, please let us know your thoughts on this potential blockbuster storm. "potential blockbuster" That probably jinxed the entire set 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: "potential blockbuster" That probably jinxed the entire set Think that would out jinx the Mid-Atlantic having the storm thread up for this? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Think that would out jinx the Mid-Atlantic having the storm thread up for this? Haha I said “potential” ....not “locked in” ....Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The 18z EPS is loaded with “potential” ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @MAG5035 What are you current thoughts before the 0z run Madness begins? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 26 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @MAG5035 What are you current thoughts before the 0z run Madness begins? I feel pretty good about the prospects of a decent winter storm in most of central and southern PA. The primary track and how the handoff to the coastal shakes out is going to be a key on if/where this becomes an excessive snowfall event. If we get the front end WAA precip sent into PA like the GFS and we track the low where we keep most of PA snow and that transfer to the Delmarva occurs, this will be a really big snowstorm for a big portion of the subforum as you would position the pivot over our region. If it dips like the Euro (and to some degree the Euro Ens) has been doing and has the coastal more quickly take over, this is a moderate event with a tighter area of heavy snows probably focused southern third of PA and Mid-Atl. Unless the GFS starts changing it's tune, we have to respect that option too (some southern PA mixing). If we are to play some devil's advocate here, the GFS spent a couple days in the mid range being about the only model having yesterday's event do what it eventually did.. while the Euro was trying to bury it under us. This is a different setup though with a boatload more potential. I posted a couple pages back on the easterly 850 wind anomalies. The 12z Euro had monster anomalies and is def NESIS quality on guidance as a whole. December's storm had similar, although with the blocking in place this is probably going to be a longer duration coastal than that one. The pieces are there for this to be a big one. Who's going to get it is still up for grabs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Tom Russell (CBS 21 out of Harrisburg) still says snow turns to mix Sunday night then a little wraparound. Downplaying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'm staying up tonight. At least for how long I can. Tom Russell. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Incoming 0z NAM: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Is this the EE rule for the NAM/EURO? or maybe the weekend rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, canderson said: Tom Russell (CBS 21 out of Harrisburg) still says snow turns to mix Sunday night then a little wraparound. Downplaying. He usually does that, doesn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Tom Russell (CBS 21 out of Harrisburg) still says snow turns to mix Sunday night then a little wraparound. Downplaying. I think he’s basing that forecast on some in-house model. It’s the only thing that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: I think he’s basing that forecast on some in-house model. It’s the only thing that makes sense. Any local weather person to downplaying event right now it just wrong. It may end up going the wrong way and he would be right but every model shows a strong signal of a significant winter storm event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Any local weather person to downplaying event right now it just wrong. It may end up going the wrong way and he would be right but every model shows a strong signal of a significant winter storm event. Yes but inciting panic buying at Giant also is not their job. He may be basing his forecast or projection off of experience or climo or any other number of things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: Yes but inciting panic buying at Giant also is not their job. He may be basing his forecast or projection off of experience or climo or any other number of things. I'm not saying inciting panic at all still early. Just do his Job and tell the truth. Nothing is set in stone but to downplay it right now he is doing the opposite of good weather media reporting. We know more than him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 35 minutes ago, canderson said: Tom Russell (CBS 21 out of Harrisburg) still says snow turns to mix Sunday night then a little wraparound. Downplaying. 9 minutes ago, anotherman said: I think he’s basing that forecast on some in-house model. It’s the only thing that makes sense. That's basically the watered down explanation on what the GFS has been doing, so I'd guess he's heavily weighing that particular model into his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: We know more than him. Any meteorologist has likely forgotten more than we may ever know lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Best post from PSU tonight: 1996 tucked 1/25/2000 tucked 2/12/2006 tucked Feb 6 2010 Tucked Feb 11 2010 tucked Feb 13 2014 Tucked 2016 Tucked Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast. The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003. 2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick. PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high. The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event. But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 50 minutes ago, canderson said: Tom Russell (CBS 21 out of Harrisburg) still says snow turns to mix Sunday night then a little wraparound. Downplaying. WGAL also taking this stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: WGAL also taking this stance. Good for them use to love Joe Calhoun. I miss Matt Moore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I guess they don't look at the models other than there own. ICON. Again very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 28 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Yes but inciting panic buying at Giant also is not their job. He may be basing his forecast or projection off of experience or climo or any other number of things. It's Wednesday. There is plenty of time for him to slowly ramp up wording and amounts. I'd rather that than go big now and have to keep backpeddling. He could at least mention the possibility of a major storm, perhaps he has said that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: It's Wednesday. There is plenty of time for him to slowly ramp up wording and amounts. I'd rather that than go big now and have to keep backpeddling. He could at least mention the possibility of a major storm, perhaps he has said that... Exactly. Just comment on it or some phrase he could say instead of downplaying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: I guess they don't look at the models other than there own. ICON. Again very consistent. The ICON has a nice track that stalls out off of the DE & south NJ coast. It has a nice swath of heavy precip over CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The ICON has a nice track that stalls out off of the DE & south NJ coast. It has a nice swath of heavy precip over CTP. Blizz get on the phone with our local stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Unbelievable same evolution on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Unbelievable same evolution on the GFS. You mean the GFS is moving towards the Euro solution, or the GFS is looking just like its previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: You mean the GFS is moving towards the Euro solution, or the GFS is looking just like its previous run? Previous runs but a good thump. And Likely good back end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS will show a classic MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Well, somewhat encouraging is that NWS has dropped any mention of a mix/zr and now is all snow start to finish. They also lowered the high temp on Monday from 36 to 34. I predict that temp will keep going down and will remain below 32 for the high temp on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now