daxx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: This! I've been saying for some time that I don't want to be near the edge, especially the southern edge. Thing is...I think there's an upside to this for our area. I'm not sure that the maps show the best case scenario. (caveat - it could also go the other way) Yes! Exactly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Ugly hole in Pittsburgh, but moving towards a better solution. If the Euro didn't kill off the WAA precip from the primary low as fast as it's been doing we'd have a much more uniform swath of snow across the state. It's not that far off from what the Canadian has until the transfer. Euro's getting over to the coastal faster and the coastal starts off stronger further down the coast. They hang the low in pretty similar spots with the Euro stronger and a bit tighter to the coast. The overall storm scenario is still quite workable for everyone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, daxx said: I know you all know I hate snowfall maps, but when you see a decent amount of snow to the southeast and northwest of the heaviest axis that is great look. We usually see very little to the southeast. I'm all in for now. Lol! Thats why i posted. Its called wiggle room and as you know, some of us dont often get that (and still may not as its 4 days out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: If the Euro didn't kill off the WAA precip from the primary low as fast as it's been doing we'd have a much more uniform swath of snow across the state. It's not that far off from what the Canadian has until the transfer. Euro's getting over to the coastal faster and the coastal starts off stronger further down the coast. They hang the low in pretty similar spots with the Euro stronger and a bit tighter to the coast. The overall storm scenario is still quite workable for everyone. 0z had 999mb and 12 had 992 just a tick south @ OBX. My gut says thats part of what we saw today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Never trust a Miller B lol. i'm usually wrong, but wasn't the last good miller B we had was the 2003 Prez day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I think it was February 10, 2010. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Never trust a Miller B lol. I agree this is going to be a nail biter right up to when it starts. I feel like we are going to have a swing down on the models for maybe one run or so. But the good news is if we can get a good initial thump from the Primary and the transfer doesn't go well we still win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Love that EPS mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: I think it was February 10, 2010. see, i told you I'm normally wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 You guys should get excited when I put these particular maps out. -4 to greater than -6 standard deviation 850mb U-wind anomaly (40-60kt eastern jet) aiming into the Mid-Atlantic and eventually southern/eastern PA. One of my big storm benchmarks. This def makes me somewhat suspect of some of the lower QPF between the transferring lows. Hr 126 Hr 144 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: If the Euro didn't kill off the WAA precip from the primary low as fast as it's been doing we'd have a much more uniform swath of snow across the state. It's not that far off from what the Canadian has until the transfer. Euro's getting over to the coastal faster and the coastal starts off stronger further down the coast. They hang the low in pretty similar spots with the Euro stronger and a bit tighter to the coast. The overall storm scenario is still quite workable for everyone. No doubt. I still feel like there's a decent chance. This year seems things have trended better for my area in setups like this. Hoping that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Love that EPS mean. . This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 We are closing in on the NAM'S RANGE lol. Not quite but we have the 84hr look to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 hours ago, paweather said: As others said good to see you back. Thanks. I am just glad you kept your America Team icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Thanks. I am just glad you kept your America Team icon. HAHA. Well that was a tough one this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, paweather said: HAHA. Well that was a tough one this year. I am usually not so easy on them but hard to fault anyone with not having real practice time and so many injuries this year. The one thing I think we learned is that Tom Brady is fairly amazing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I am usually not so easy on them but hard to fault anyone with not having real practice time and so many injuries this year. The one thing I think we learned is that Tom Brady is fairly amazing. No doubt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18z ICON was pretty good, OK GFS let's not disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 So I'm flying out 11:15am on Sunday. Looking at most of the models, I may get out, and my ride gets home, before the snow breaks out. (edited to add other than the GFS which brings precip in earlier than the others...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I competition of 2 model camps even though we still get a good thump with the Primary. GFS and EURO/CMC are so different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18z still shows a strong backend thump as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS is sending the primary towards Pittsburgh. Verbatim, the southern tier sees a LOT of mixing. QPF totals don't look especially high given the slow development and track of the coastal. It's pretty strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The GFS looks like shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Not total shit but again in a different camp. Give us more snow then last year alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 46 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: GFS is sending the primary towards Pittsburgh. Verbatim, the southern tier sees a LOT of mixing. QPF totals don't look especially high given the slow development and track of the coastal. It's pretty strung out. I mean, I said Cleveland earlier... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Still a big spread between the models. For me, I will see where we are at Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Great posts & awesome Euro, EPS & Canadian runs as well. Did you see the CIPS analogs posted on the Mid Atlantic forum as well? The top 10 storm analogs are a greatest hits list for CTP snow. Let’s do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The 12z EPS was beautiful! The mean low position and track along with the individual ensemble member low clusters were ideal for CTP snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The 18z GEFS is starting to come around to the Euro idea for the storm on Monday. There are an increasing amount of ensemble member lows off of the coast and it develops a mean low position just off of the coast of the DelMarVa by early Monday am. The snow map is reflecting the potential of the CTP jackpot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @showmethesnow If you get the chance, please let us know your thoughts on this potential blockbuster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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