Cashtown_Coop Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 51 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Hey everyone, quick idea. If things keep looking like snow, I think it would be fun to have a snow contest for the area. Pick something like 5 sites and see who can guess the total snowfall for those places. Start a spreadsheet and tally up the numbers. Like this post if you want to participate or respond directly to my post. If we get 10 players I’ll get it going. Up to 6 players counting me. Good response for the first hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, canderson said: So what do we need to look for to lose this storm? It is all about the transfer. Primary will give us snow but the transfer is key to bigger amounts. MECS. HECS, BECS etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, anotherman said: You want to lose it? Oh, no, I just meant what features should I be aware of that can make it go haywire. As a Red Sox fan, I'm always looking for what cause negatively impact ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, canderson said: So what do we need to look for to lose this storm? I think it fair to say that there is enough consensus that we have a storm coming. Current goalposts are as follows left post - primary hangs on too long-wrecks thermals, delayed transfer to coast, sloppy transfer to coast-think miller b jip zone right post - coastal tucks inland and SE Pa sees mixing issues, coastal pops too late and its congrats NJ, coastal too far ots and pulls best snows too far east Current feeling is that we are sitting pretty here in central and eastern Pa. (if one blends EPS and GFS). While enough big hits are showing up, I'd still think a 4-8" deal is rather likely, and there is enough wiggle room remaining to keep that in play, unless we start seeing something trend away from what most models are showing. its not like we are pulling for 1 model, as they all have something decent to offer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: Oh, no, I just meant what features should I be aware of that can make it go haywire. As a Red Sox fan, I'm always looking for what cause negatively impact ... Yeah, we don't need babe Ruth affecting our snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, FHS said: If throat kicks , groin pouches, titty twisters, Indian burns, and foul language are allowed , and I can be condescending to opponents then I'm in . If I measure correctly I can't lose. Stay calm guys that was just a really funny joke to me. Just confirming, is this a yes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I think it fair to say that there is enough consensus that we have a storm coming. Current goalposts are as follows left post - primary hangs on too long-wrecks thermals, delayed transfer to coast, sloppy transfer to coast-think miller b jip zone right post - coastal tucks inland and SE Pa sees mixing issues, coastal pops too late and its congrats NJ, coastal too far ots and pulls best snows too far east Current feeling is that we are sitting pretty here in central and eastern Pa. (if one blends EPS and GFS). While enough big hits are showing up, I'd still think a 4-8" deal is rather likely, and there is enough wiggle room remaining to keep that in play, unless we start seeing something trend away from what most models are showing. its not like we are pulling for 1 model, as they all have something decent to offer. Good right up and agree. I think this is going to be a game time solution. Miller B's always seem to put the models back and forth with their final solution and evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I should add, I do like the long duration of this storm if the transfer is somewhat clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, canderson said: Oh, no, I just meant what features should I be aware of that can make it go haywire. As a Red Sox fan, I'm always looking for what cause negatively impact ... As an O's fan, I find this especially bizarre. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Yeah, we don't need babe Ruth affecting our snow There's a week to go between now and then. Certainly there's enough hot dogs and whores available to keep that fat **** from poking his nose in this... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Let's get 12z rolling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I may regret this later, but I’ll take the ICON solution right now. Good initial thump, bangs the coastal hard, definitely risk taint with it super tucked but if guarantees a nice hit. I don’t like The east, or late sloppy phase option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 ICON not a bad start. But could be close to a changeover in the LSV. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Welcome back... Thanks. Needed a break and do not have a ton of time right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, paweather said: ICON not a bad start. But could be close to a changeover in the LSV. verbatim.....we taint. Early panels showed a more norther solution in midwest. Keep both eyes on that. Primary needs to die a timely death or just not be too strong so that we get overrunning and not cooked thermals while waiting for coastal to pop 12z held onto primary longer, but looks to recover and coastal starts to take over and save the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: verbatim.....we taint. Early panels showed a more norther solution in midwest. Keep both eyes on that. Primary needs to die a timely death or just not be too strong so that we get overrunning and not cooked thermals while waiting for coastal to pop Yep. GFS might be following suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I may regret this later, but I’ll take the ICON solution right now. Good initial thump, bangs the coastal hard, definitely risk taint with it super tucked but if guarantees a nice hit. I don’t like The east, or late sloppy phase option. I agree. And even though I said that I wasn't worried about taint last night, give me a super-amped bomb and I'll take all the QPF (and some taint) that comes with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I agree. And even though I said that I wasn't worried about taint last night, give me a super-amped bomb and I'll take all the QPF (and some taint) that comes with it. 100% agree every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep. GFS might be following suit. 500's showing a little less ridging at 72. Too early to see if it helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: 100% agree every time. says the guy who lives 50 miles west of the typical fall line....lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: 500's showing a little less ridging at 72. Too early to see if it helps. 78 GFS seems to be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 That 1033 H helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: says the guy who lives 50 miles west of the typical fall line....lol Hey now lol, the suppressed looks don’t do it for me. Want to see the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 This has to bring the goods: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Hey now lol, the suppressed looks don’t do it for me. Want to see the qpf same here. Just need to be 20 miles w of fall line and I'm all in....every time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 I like how no one mentioned the 0z Euro op run overnight and this morning. That was def a way to lose the storm lol. The confluence to the NE is going to be another piece of this. Theres a pretty deep 500mb low passage that drops SE through New England over the weekend and gives us a glancing shot at some arctic air. It appears the Euro lags at clearing that feature out vs the GFS, which redirects the primary system southeast and really prevents that initial wave of precip getting into PA... depending mainly on the coastal development which with the pattern alignment likely would limit how much of the region saw significant snow. I know we all seem to be scared of Miller-B's in here but we're probably not going to see a widespread big snowstorm in the subforum with this setup unless the primary gets close enough to get PA into the good precip. Then ideally the transfer to the Delmarva will hang the precip shield over PA and the coastal does the rest. The slot doesn't come into play unless the primary and handoff comes in too high, and I don't really think it's going to happen here. For now, the Euro ensemble guidance seems like a decent compromise between the op trying to stuff the storm under us and the GFS/GEFS skirting that high line of mixing the southern tier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The Primary on the GFS just won't die. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: I like how no one mentioned the 0z Euro op run overnight and this morning. That was def a way to lose the storm lol. The confluence to the NE is going to be another piece of this. Theres a pretty deep 500mb low passage that drops SE through New England over the weekend and gives us a glancing shot at some arctic air. It appears the Euro lags at clearing that feature out vs the GFS, which redirects the primary system southeast and really prevents that initial wave of precip getting into PA... depending mainly on the coastal development which with the pattern alignment likely would limit how much of the region saw significant snow. I know we all seem to be scared of Miller-B's in here but we're probably not going to see a widespread big snowstorm in the subforum with this setup unless the primary gets close enough to get PA into the good precip. Then ideally the transfer to the Delmarva will hang the precip shield over PA and the coastal does the rest. The slot doesn't come into play unless the primary and handoff comes in too high, and I don't really think it's going to happen here. For now, the Euro ensemble guidance seems like a decent compromise between the op trying to stuff the storm under us and the GFS/GEFS skirting that high line of mixing the southern tier. Thats EXACTLY what i worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: The Primary on the GFS just won't die. and secondary pops east. Not worrying yet, but hoping ens guidance is south and west for primary and secondary, or LSV wont approve. Mag to NEPA will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: and secondary pops east. Not worrying yet, but hoping ens guidance is south and west for primary and secondary, or LSV wont approve. Mag to NEPA will We still get crushed with backend snow on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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