Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Don’t worry everyone...if the 2 events fizzle out this week, the models have begun to focus on another Miller B type of event next Sunday or Monday. This blocking pattern has to payoff at some point right!?!? Here is the 12z Euro for the potential event next Early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Hey @MAG5035 CTP is cutting back Monday/Tuesday totals. It does appear it’s gonna be more slop than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Hate being fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 42 minutes ago, paweather said: Hate being fringed. This is not fully decided yet. There are still over 24 hours to go before the event begins and we are still in the game. It won’t take much to get the early week event back to a 3 inch plus snow event for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Here is the latest map from CTP for this early week event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 CTP updated the forecast and this is what it has now for Harrisburg. Monday Night Snow before 1am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. Low around 31. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow and freezing rain likely, possibly mixed with sleet before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 38. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This is not fully decided yet. There are still over 24 hours to go before the event begins and we are still in the game. It won’t take much to get the early week event back to a 3 inch plus s ow event for many of us. Yeah I know, gosh GFS trended north and now the NAM south maybe we are the jackpot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 SOS love getting trolled by the models Keep posting the maps sooner or later we have to hit one as mentioned above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I’m hoping for a miracle this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 18z Euro juiced up the front end snow for the early week event for the Susquehanna Valley especially west of the river. Still plenty of time tonight & tomorrow to continue to improve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 18z EPS also improved for the front end snow tomorrow night for the Susquehanna Valley west of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Can we hope 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, paweather said: Can we hope 0z? The NAM says DC gets like half a foot and MDT might get an inch. So, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, canderson said: The NAM says DC gets like half a foot and MDT might get an inch. So, yeah. I know. It is so discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Don’t worry everyone...if the 2 events fizzle out this week, the models have begun to focus on another Miller B type of event next Sunday or Monday. This blocking pattern has to payoff at some point right!?!? Here is the 12z Euro for the potential event next Early next week. As long as that hits on Monday and not Sunday, I'm ok with it. Like I said, I'm likely to have a Sunday flight out of Scranton or Allentown for job orientation. I don't want it to get screwed up. Besides, I'll be in Houston for a couple of days, so it can rip once I'm up in the air. Just have to worry about where the connecting flight is out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, Voyager said: As long as that hits on Monday and not Sunday, I'm ok with it. Like I said, I'm likely to have a Sunday flight out of Scranton or Allentown for job orientation. I don't want it to get screwed up. Besides, I'll be in Houston for a couple of days, so it can rip once I'm up in the air. Just have to worry about where the connecting flight is out of. If after 2 years of our winter weather you need to be concerned I would rather you be positive, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GFS is a mess for Mon/Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I actually hope it is right now since we have no chance for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 42 minutes ago, paweather said: If after 2 years of our winter weather you need to be concerned I would rather you be positive, If you were out of work for 10 months and didn't have any income for 8 of them and you were heading off for a job that wasn't easy to come by, you might understand where I'm coming from. And I'm not wishing the snow away, I just want it delayed, not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Voyager said: If you didn't have any income for 10 months and you were heading off for a job that wasn't easy to come by, you might understand where I'm coming from. And I'm not wishing the snow away, I just want it delayed, not denied. I haven't either so your talking to the same Voyager. Wish you the best believe me. But don't comer on here and just think others aren't on this same situation. Please. I promote my hobby not my personal life. And yes, Please some snow soon. Good luck to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I think per GFS congrats the Oceans for storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: I haven't either so your talking to the same Voyager. Wish you the best believe me. But don't comer on here and just think others aren't on this same situation. Please. I promote my hobby not my personal life. And yes, Please some snow soon. Good luck to you! Thanks. I didn't know you were in the same situation. For that I apologize. As for the board, yes it's about weather, but many of us share our personal stories as well. I see it as a group of like minded friends. We gather because we have the same interests, but the discussions veer off in other directions as well sometimes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Voyager, Good luck with the new job. I hope there's some back unemployment coming your way and that next week's snow holds off until after you've left the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 0z Euro, Control run & EPS each improved over the last few runs for the snow potential with the front end of the storm Monday night into Tuesday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I just checked Williamsport on weather.gov. Now they are mentioning freezing drizzle for Tuesday for the first time. Nobody wants that. Tuesday Snow likely before 9am, then areas of freezing drizzle. Cloudy, with a high near 32. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 329 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 PAZ010>012-017>019-027-028-045-049-050-056-057-059-066-252300- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0005.210126T0500Z-210126T1800Z/ Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Mifflin-Juniata-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder- Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Lancaster- Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, and Lancaster 329 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to two inches, followed by ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the tuesday morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Here is part of the CTP forecast discussion this morning : “Low pressure will lift out of the Mississippi Valley and gradually weaken as it moves up the Ohio River Valley. Model consensus is to advect the leading edge of a relatively large area of light to moderate wintry precip northeast across the state this afternoon and early tonight. Sub-Zero C wet bulb temps will occur through a deep enough layer this afternoon through early tonight to support a few to several hour period of snow and accums generally around 1.5-2 inches followed by a several hour period of sleet in most places late tonight and early Tuesday. This will be a widespread, moderate impact weather evening with a layering of a few inches of snow, topped by a thin layer of sleet and freezing rain.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I'm kind of surprised that the watch doesn't cover all the counties, unless they issue one here for later. Side note, and probably quite time sensitive since it's a live feed, but check out how hard it's snowing in Flagstaff, AZ right now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 6z Euro held the same decent look as 0z for the front end snow for the LSV and south central PA before the mixing takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 0z Euro still had the Miller B snow threat for next Monday for CTP. Only 1 MORE week away....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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