CarlislePaWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 For the next six hours the GFS has me as the southern jackpot for the next storm. Both 10:1 and Kuchera give me 10", which would be fascinating if that happened because that's the same amount I had for the December storm. Other interesting thing is that the duration of the storm is almost 36 hours. It begins around 7:00pm Monday afternoon and doesn't stop until 1:00am Wednesday morning although the bulk of it falls during the first 24 hours. I like storms that last for 24+ hours since that doesn't happen all that frequently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The Biggest Euro Run since December. Sorry all had to say it, it is Friday and soon the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: For the next six hours the GFS has me as the southern jackpot for the next storm. Both 10:1 and Kuchera give me 10", which would be fascinating if that happened because that's the same amount I had for the December storm. Other interesting thing is that the duration of the storm is almost 36 hours. It begins around 7:00pm Monday afternoon and doesn't stop until 1:00am Wednesday morning although the bulk of it falls during the first 24 hours. I like storms that last for 24+ hours since that doesn't happen all that frequently. I'd like to see models back down a bit on the primary track, as they've been creeping up toward entering the primary into western PA. Like I mentioned before, the blocking pattern forces the secondary development SE of the the primary off the Mid-Atlantic.. creating an alignment that could somewhat favor the Sus Valley between I-80 and the turnpike holding frozen longer than that same zone in the central counties. Either way, there would likely be more widespread mixing with the GFS primary low track. Plus it lags a bit in getting a secondary going. North central is starting to look like the place to be for an all snow event. I still favor primarily frozen p-types (snow/sleet) east of the Laurels though. We'll have to watch the Laurels and LSV below the turnpike for some ZR as well. If models edge back south a bit this weekend, preferably keeping the primary tracking just below the mason-dixon when transfer occurs.. this probably becomes a mostly snow event for most of the subforum. I'm also eager to see how the NAM and other short range guidance handle the thermals once it gets firmly in range later this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 42 minutes ago, paweather said: We haven't had a PA special for a long time, maybe Monday Night and Tuesday delivers for the state. Wasn't December 14 a PA special? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Wasn't December 14 a PA special? yeah but it snowed in other states around us LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Wasn't December 14 a PA special? Sort of...but areas around Binghamton had between 40-50" of snow, so we sort of shared the wealth with our neighbors up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Sort of...but areas around Binghamton had between 40-50" of snow, so we sort of shared the wealth with our neighbors up north. NO MORE SHARING! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sort of...but areas around Binghamton had between 40-50" of snow, so we sort of shared the wealth with our neighbors up north. I consider Binghamton part of PA the same way I consider Hagerstown part of PA. They're too close to the border and too easily accessible to be in another state lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: I consider Binghamton part of PA the same way I consider Hagerstown part of PA. They're too close to the border and too easily accessible to be in another state lol I was waiting for something like that. So, I present this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I was waiting for something like that. So, I present this... Enjoy the point, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Enjoy the point, sir. LOL. I only did that because I was anticipating your response in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 30 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I'd like to see models back down a bit on the primary track, as they've been creeping up toward entering the primary into western PA. Like I mentioned before, the blocking pattern forces the secondary development SE of the the primary off the Mid-Atlantic.. creating an alignment that could somewhat favor the Sus Valley between I-80 and the turnpike holding frozen longer than that same zone in the central counties. Either way, there would likely be more widespread mixing with the GFS primary low track. Plus it lags a bit in getting a secondary going. North central is starting to look like the place to be for an all snow event. I still favor primarily frozen p-types (snow/sleet) east of the Laurels though. We'll have to watch the Laurels and LSV below the turnpike for some ZR as well. If models edge back south a bit this weekend, preferably keeping the primary tracking just below the mason-dixon when transfer occurs.. this probably becomes a mostly snow event for most of the subforum. I'm also eager to see how the NAM and other short range guidance handle the thermals once it gets firmly in range later this weekend. Like what you just said Mag might be some mixing issues on the EURO today S PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Like what you just said Mag might be some mixing issues on the EURO today S PA. Frozen drizzle at best after thump.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12Z Euro: No commentary, just a snapshot - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 For years, the Euro and Ukie were usually in sync. Not so much recently. Today, the 12z Ukie looks very much like the Euro above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: 12Z Euro: No commentary, just a snapshot - Thanks for posting that I couldn't after seeing it. Storm 2 is not looking good but there is still time for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, paweather said: Thanks for posting that I couldn't after seeing it. Storm 2 is not looking good but there is still time for change. There's a LOT of time left. That was my point last night - too early to say it's going to snow, too early to say it's not. I'm still not super confident about Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: There's a LOT of time left. That was my point last night - too early to say it's going to snow, too early to say it's not. I'm still not super confident about Monday. I feel better for Monday/Tuesday. There is at least consistency in the models with the exception of type of precip for us in the South but feel even for us as SuperStorm indicated a good thump of snow and then FR Drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, paweather said: I feel better for Monday/Tuesday. There is at least consistency in the models with the exception of type of precip for us in the South but feel even for us as SuperStorm indicated a good thump of snow and then FR Drizzle. That's my concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: That's my concern. And rightly so. Now onto the EPS and Happy Hours. The NAM will also be in play over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 However Monday/Tuesday turns out at least "maybe" not boring weather for a change. If Allweather shows up this weekend we know we might have something brewing. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'm currently in Philipsburg. Snow squalls are real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Where is Canderson with a wind update? For the past hour or two my house has been shaking - it is windier here now than a lot of actually forecasted "wind events." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Where is Canderson with a wind update? For the past hour or two my house has been shaking - it is windier here now than a lot of actually forecasted "wind events." West winds - the only direction I'm guarded from them mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Happy Hour runs start with the NAM. Cheers everyone. Happy Weekend Tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I know, I know it is the 84hr NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I know, I know it is the 84hr NAM:NAM’d 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18 minutes ago, paweather said: I know, I know it is the 84hr NAM: Snow is snow. Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Snow is snow. Who cares You got that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 CTP seems rather bullish for the coal region... Monday A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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