Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

[Blizzard of 93]

45 minutes ago, canderson said:

You guys are super confident for a storm 3.5 days away .... lol

I’m just waiting for the Advisory to be posted for Monday and for you to post “ I’ll bet MDT won’t get 1 inch of snow”! 
I really am looking forward to that post!

[anotherman]

Other than the December storm, we've had little snow for the past couple of years. Sorry, I don't agree with you on this. At this juncture, there are still ways for us to miss this. 

I agree. Things have changed and the Susquehanna valley is not necessarily what it used to be (during snowstorms). Things are shifting and it’s almost like the climate we have here is taking on the characteristics of somewhere south of here (Maryland, Virginia).

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We also don’t live in MD or DC...

True, but where he lives receives more snow annually than I do.

I wasn't arguing or trying to start anything. I'm saying that we can't say for certain that it's going to snow. To do so could end up making one look foolish. 

There are absolutely ways for Monday to fail. That goes for Lake George NY and Smith Mountain Lake in VA and every point in between. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

True, but where he lives receives more snow annually than I do.

I wasn't arguing or trying to start anything. I'm saying that we can't say for certain that it's going to snow. To do so could end up making one look foolish. 

Yes, but it’s not like one random 18z run has shown this event...

There is a building consensus.

Nothing is guaranteed until we are shoveling!

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I agree. Things have changed and the Susquehanna valley is not necessarily what it used to be (during snowstorms). Things are shifting and it’s almost like the climate we have here is taking on the characteristics of somewhere south of here (Maryland, Virginia).

Here we go....

MDT was above normal snow the majority of years over the last decade.
We had one bad year last year. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here we go....

MDT was above normal snow the majority of years over the last decade.
We had one bad year last year. 

I think you're misinterpreting what is being said. 

Climate is NOT the same as it was years ago. You often quote PSU Hoffman, he's been saying that over and over again. That doesn't mean it doesn't snow, or we don't have above normal years. We've gotten above normal years because we've had a lot of very large snowstorms in the past 20 years. Winters have been lacking multiple snow events, sustained cold, and to some extent, frigid weather. He said winter is changing. He's right...

[anotherman]

Here we go....
MDT was above normal snow the majority of years over the last decade.
We had one bad year last year. 

Yes, we’ve had some big snowstorms. But that doesn’t mean the climate isn’t changing. Snow totals or mild winters don’t really signal climate shifts. Years and years of data do. I’m not saying it can’t snow anymore, but to completely deny that our area’s climate is changing is an opinion not based in reality.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, anotherman said:

Yes, we’ve had some big snowstorms. But that doesn’t mean the climate isn’t changing. Snow totals or mild winters don’t really signal climate shifts. Years and years of data do. I’m not saying it can’t snow anymore, but to completely deny that our area’s climate is changing is an opinion not based in reality.

Thanks - you explained it far better than my poor attempt. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Yes, we’ve had some big snowstorms. But that doesn’t mean the climate isn’t changing. Snow totals or mild winters don’t really signal climate shifts. Years and years of data do. I’m not saying it can’t snow anymore, but to completely deny that our area’s climate is changing is an opinion not based in reality.

Remember when we had to walk backwards to school in 2 feet of snow every week in the winter when we were kids... 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just having some fun everyone!

Can we please just get excited that it might snow next week?!?!

The posts tonight are a real downer despite the current pattern and some recent model runs.

[anotherman]

Just having some fun everyone!
Can we please just get excited that it might snow next week?!?!
The posts tonight are a real downer despite the current pattern and some recent model runs.

I am excited! The pattern is promising. Let’s hope it delivers...

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, anotherman said:

I am excited! The pattern is promising. Let’s hope it delivers...

I am too. I said nothing negative. I added a dose of realism. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I am too. I said nothing negative. I added a dose of realism. 

Yes, that is a good thing!

I am just fired up about the opportunities next week. We are very much in the game, but anything is still possible for the better or worse. I think we have a good chance, but we will know more in the next few days.

This place should be very busy this week!

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, that is a good thing!

I am just fired up about the opportunities next week. We are very much in the game, but anything is still possible for the better or worse. I think we have a good chance, but we will know more in the next few days.

This place should be very busy this week!

Yep, that's what I've been saying.  

[MAG5035]

50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not - this storm is all over the place. I'm prepared for zero snow, a pile of snow, or anything in between the next 10-14 days. As PSU Hoffman said earlier this evening "the Monday system has become complicated, and we don't do complicated well."

I think those are prudent words to heed. 

I'm mostly taking these systems one at a time. I see the next one later next week which has been showing on the models fairly well (in the sense of there being a decent storm being progged). Likely to be something, but we're at day 7. Like I mentioned before, par for the course that models are going to be all over the place handling the really blocky pattern we have.

We're on the cusp of way too early NAM range with our nearest threat, and as such the models are finally beginning to hone in some. A full or nearly full suppressed solution for us is a very unlikely scenario at this point IMO. This is likely to be a decent winter storm for at least a sizable portion of the subforum. The primary issues I see right now are the extent of p-type issues southern third of so of PA and QPF/northern extent once above I-80.   I think we're chasing a somewhat narrow axis of heavier snow but I also think our region is well situated for it. The setup isn't necessarily complicated. We're ejecting out a shortwave out of the very deep western trough thats going to get the squeeze play between that and the blocking/confluent pattern to our north/northeast as it gets sheared and elongated eastward. I think the western trough is a detriment to the Mid-Atl region in this setup. It allows enough heights ahead of the system to track it across a bit higher than you'd want to see it for that region. Additionally, there isn't much of surface high pressure present where you need it up over New England to really drive a CAD wedge deep into the Mid-Atl.  Otherwise, if we had this non phasing system with a western ridge paired with this strong NAO (-2 to -3 magnitude), I have a feeling we'd be watching this pass us by well to our south. And conversely, you'd have your AC on if we didn't have the blocking to counter that really strong western trough. 

At any rate, handoff to a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic coast looks pretty solid, so track/strength of the primary surface low is going to determine how much mixing along with the placement of the snow axis. Currently looking at the 0z GFS, surface low is a tad stronger and further north than 18z. With the flat trajectory of this system since it's getting forced east and reforming off the coast, this looks to be one of those setups where eastern PA may in fact be in a better place to stay mostly frozen even if the primary knocks on the door on the PA/OH border. I'm not really seeing surface and 925mb cold getting moved much at all. The 850mb push isn't very strong either and it's brief. There may be mixing issues, but north of the Mason Dixon it's likely to be mainly sleet if there is. Only SW PA really looks to see any notable liquid (mostly ZR on models). Once we get solidified on the track a bit better, we'll have to see how thermals are on short range guidance later this weekend. 

[Itstrainingtime]

54 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm mostly taking these systems one at a time. I see the next one later next week which has been showing on the models fairly well (in the sense of there being a decent storm being progged). Likely to be something, but we're at day 7. Like I mentioned before, par for the course that models are going to be all over the place handling the really blocky pattern we have.

We're on the cusp of way too early NAM range with our nearest threat, and as such the models are finally beginning to hone in some. A full or nearly full suppressed solution for us is a very unlikely scenario at this point IMO. This is likely to be a decent winter storm for at least a sizable portion of the subforum. The primary issues I see right now are the extent of p-type issues southern third of so of PA and QPF/northern extent once above I-80.   I think we're chasing a somewhat narrow axis of heavier snow but I also think our region is well situated for it. The setup isn't necessarily complicated. We're ejecting out a shortwave out of the very deep western trough thats going to get the squeeze play between that and the blocking/confluent pattern to our north/northeast as it gets sheared and elongated eastward. I think the western trough is a detriment to the Mid-Atl region in this setup. It allows enough heights ahead of the system to track it across a bit higher than you'd want to see it for that region. Additionally, there isn't much of surface high pressure present where you need it up over New England to really drive a CAD wedge deep into the Mid-Atl.  Otherwise, if we had this non phasing system with a western ridge paired with this strong NAO (-2 to -3 magnitude), I have a feeling we'd be watching this pass us by well to our south. And conversely, you'd have your AC on if we didn't have the blocking to counter that really strong western trough. 

At any rate, handoff to a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic coast looks pretty solid, so track/strength of the primary surface low is going to determine how much mixing along with the placement of the snow axis. Currently looking at the 0z GFS, surface low is a tad stronger and further north than 18z. With the flat trajectory of this system since it's getting forced east and reforming off the coast, this looks to be one of those setups where eastern PA may in fact be in a better place to stay mostly frozen even if the primary knocks on the door on the PA/OH border. I'm not really seeing surface and 925mb cold getting moved much at all. The 850mb push isn't very strong either and it's brief. There may be mixing issues, but north of the Mason Dixon it's likely to be mainly sleet if there is. Only SW PA really looks to see any notable liquid (mostly ZR on models). Once we get solidified on the track a bit better, we'll have to see how thermals are on short range guidance later this weekend. 

Thank you for that. Appreciate your thoughts.  

[Festus]

Spot on at the moment Mag - my grid for Monday night:

"Sleet, possibly mixed with snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%."

Ick.

[Blizzard of 93]

Things are still looking good on the latest EPS & GEFS for the early week storm chance for most of CTP.

The short range models will soon be in range to help us determine the final story on this event.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP already is ramping up their discussion on this early week event and said this in their Hazardous Weather Outlook this morning.

“Steady snow will likely spread northeast across the region
Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday as low pressure
moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley.”

 

[paweather]

Let’s do it today and lots of good tracking over the weekend! 

[Ahoff]

8 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm mostly taking these systems one at a time. I see the next one later next week which has been showing on the models fairly well (in the sense of there being a decent storm being progged). Likely to be something, but we're at day 7. Like I mentioned before, par for the course that models are going to be all over the place handling the really blocky pattern we have.

We're on the cusp of way too early NAM range with our nearest threat, and as such the models are finally beginning to hone in some. A full or nearly full suppressed solution for us is a very unlikely scenario at this point IMO. This is likely to be a decent winter storm for at least a sizable portion of the subforum. The primary issues I see right now are the extent of p-type issues southern third of so of PA and QPF/northern extent once above I-80.   I think we're chasing a somewhat narrow axis of heavier snow but I also think our region is well situated for it. The setup isn't necessarily complicated. We're ejecting out a shortwave out of the very deep western trough thats going to get the squeeze play between that and the blocking/confluent pattern to our north/northeast as it gets sheared and elongated eastward. I think the western trough is a detriment to the Mid-Atl region in this setup. It allows enough heights ahead of the system to track it across a bit higher than you'd want to see it for that region. Additionally, there isn't much of surface high pressure present where you need it up over New England to really drive a CAD wedge deep into the Mid-Atl.  Otherwise, if we had this non phasing system with a western ridge paired with this strong NAO (-2 to -3 magnitude), I have a feeling we'd be watching this pass us by well to our south. And conversely, you'd have your AC on if we didn't have the blocking to counter that really strong western trough. 

At any rate, handoff to a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic coast looks pretty solid, so track/strength of the primary surface low is going to determine how much mixing along with the placement of the snow axis. Currently looking at the 0z GFS, surface low is a tad stronger and further north than 18z. With the flat trajectory of this system since it's getting forced east and reforming off the coast, this looks to be one of those setups where eastern PA may in fact be in a better place to stay mostly frozen even if the primary knocks on the door on the PA/OH border. I'm not really seeing surface and 925mb cold getting moved much at all. The 850mb push isn't very strong either and it's brief. There may be mixing issues, but north of the Mason Dixon it's likely to be mainly sleet if there is. Only SW PA really looks to see any notable liquid (mostly ZR on models). Once we get solidified on the track a bit better, we'll have to see how thermals are on short range guidance later this weekend. 

Saddest line of the whole write up.

[paweather]

The NAM looks to be incoming:

[paweather]

NAM is slower and strung out it seems. I'll play this off because this is the 84 hour NAM. LOL. Come on 12z suite. 

[paweather]

It looks like storm 2 is still suppressed. 

[paweather]

[canderson]

GFS looks really good (to me, an idiot) for true CPA. 

[paweather]

CMC looks better than the GFS for storm 2. Not there yet but hope we can get that North Trend. 

[Itstrainingtime]

28 minutes ago, canderson said:

GFS looks really good (to me, an idiot) for true CPA. 

I assume you're talking the early week storm? GFS is a whiff south for the storm later in the week. (though that came north and is still a viable threat) 

It's still equally possible that southern PA sees a lot of snow next week or little to nothing. (Monday could be a little too north = Thursday could end up south) 

Edit: Shouldn't have said equal chances. Monday looks like at least some snow is likely at this point. 

[paweather]

We haven't had a PA special for a long time, maybe Monday Night and Tuesday delivers for the state. 

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I assume you're talking the early week storm? GFS is a whiff south for the storm later in the week. (though that came north and is still a viable threat) 

It's still equally possible that southern PA sees a lot of snow next week or little to nothing. (Monday could be a little too north = Thursday could end up south) 

Edit: Shouldn't have said equal chances. Monday looks like at least some snow is likely at this point. 

Yeah, Monday. I ignore any second storm until the first chance passes by.