Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The bottom line is that next week is loaded with potential. We have the chance to have a great week of winter weather with 2 storm opportunities. Here are the combined 2 event snow total 12z Euro maps for next week in 10-1 and Kuchera ratio. I would be thrilled with half of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The 12z EPS was on board with all of the potential of the Euro Op run. Here is the EPS 15 day total snow! It was not long ago that this map was consistently showing around 3 inches for the 15 days. The last couple of days we have been near 8 inches on these maps, and today most of CTP is over 10 inches of snow. Awesome signal for the 15 day map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 @MAG5035 What do you think of the potential storm chances next week that the Euro & EPS are advertising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The next best part of the 12z Euro Op run was the chance for a second winter storm later in the week on next Thursday into Friday. I’d take a heartbreaking Monday storm for this beauty later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 51 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I’d take a heartbreaking Monday storm for this beauty later in the week. Another 7 days to 10 days. Sorry over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 GFS looks like it's gone from amped to suppressed in one run. Congrats northern VA on this run. I think realistically were still 2-3 days away from knowing what will happen on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, paweather said: Another 7 days to 10 days. Sorry over it. There is a ton to track over the next week. The Monday/Tuesday storm is only 5 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: GFS looks like it's gone from amped to suppressed in one run. Congrats northern VA on this run. I think realistically were still 2-3 days away from knowing what will happen on Monday. Yes, and I really like where we are sitting in the LSV. The bullseye keeps moving north & south, but we have stayed very much in the game the last couple of days. Hopefully we are digging out from the early week storm while tracking the late week opportunity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 An actual legit clear and cold night here tonight with a bit of snow on the ground. 16ºF currently, probably coldest night of the winter so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 10 hours ago, MAG5035 said: An actual legit clear and cold night here tonight with a bit of snow on the ground. 16ºF currently, probably coldest night of the winter so far. We hit 21 degrees this morning, not the coldest we had this winter but still cold. Blizz keep the maps coming...we're going to hit one of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The 6z GFS had the best run yet for this event for the southern half of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The 0z Euro & EPS remained steady for this potential storm for CTP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS had the best run yet for this event for the southern half of CTP. This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm. With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc. I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm. With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc. I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours edit : I could see it slipping away with the euro you just posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm. With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc. I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours I agree with you 100%. I know that every storm/setup is unique, but if I'm on or near the southern boundary of good snow, I'm essentially writing it off. I'm much more interested in being on the northern edge or even just out of it if there are several days left before the event. Some of my biggest snows were mid-Atlantic specials at range. '83 and '96 are classic examples. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 9 hours ago, paweather said: Another 7 days to 10 days. Sorry over it. I know it's a ways out, I'm just saying if it would work out that way, I'd be okay with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I agree with you 100%. I know that every storm/setup is unique, but if I'm on or near the southern boundary of good snow, I'm essentially writing it off. I'm much more interested in being on the northern edge or even just out of it if there are several days left before the event. Some of my biggest snows were mid-Atlantic specials at range. '83 and '96 are classic examples.Totally agree. Much rather be on northern fringe vs southern fringe. Southern fringe is almost always a kiss of death.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 36 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Totally agree. Much rather be on northern fringe vs southern fringe. Southern fringe is almost always a kiss of death. . +1 with both of you and trainer. Only caveat is that we have -NAO and that throws a flag up for the "inevitable" tick north to me. Would probably be easy to find periods of -NAO in the last 20yrs and see what percentage jogged north vs got shunted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Euro & EPS remained steady for this potential storm for CTP. Really not liking the Euro trends for my area. Keeps putting less and less snow out, to the point that southern Allegheny County has 0 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Stuck at 108: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 storms still in tact on the GFS for next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Man, I really like that 2nd storm. That could be a humdinger of a storm. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Remarkable that in late January that a storm exiting off Myrtle Beach produces rain up to the I95 corridor, at least as the GFS depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Superstorm said: Man, I really like that 2nd storm. That could be a humdinger of a storm. . Agreed, more upside with that the first event. Though...given how things have been, I'm not looking past Monday/Tuesday and laying all my eggs on storm #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Remarkable that in late January that a storm exiting off Myrtle Beach produces rain up to the I95 corridor, at least as the GFS depicts. I was actually thinking the same thing. That low off the SC coast has such a moisture fetch to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Maybe a 31st storm. Looks warm a bit for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Remarkable that in late January that a storm exiting off Myrtle Beach produces rain up to the I95 corridor, at least as the GFS depicts. The primary low with that is associated with that comes up the Ohio River towards western PA and the pattern alignment forces the secondary southeast off the Carolina coast and then eastward away from the coast. You can see how the 500mb low arcs from CO to WI, then gets blocked and forced down through PA and then southeast off the Carolina coast where the coastal storm eventually deepens rapidly. Not a suppressed pattern in the sense that the US is overwhelmed with cold air. At any rate, gotta dispatch these threats one at a time though. This one slated for Monday/Tues is getting close to the short range and it wasn't a slouch on the GFS either with a 10+ bullseye in SC PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 34 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: At any rate, gotta dispatch these threats one at a time though. This one slated for Monday/Tues is getting close to the short range and it wasn't a slouch on the GFS either with a 10+ bullseye in SC PA. Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them. I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine. Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days. Would feel better if it were 2-3 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them. I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine. Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days. Would feel better if it were 2-3 though. Agreed, cannot wait to get in the NAM range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I also think the January 31st storm is something to watch. 3 storms before the pattern looks to warm up. Hope not long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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