canderson Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Pretty sure this is a better threat than anything we faced in all of last season. If nothing else, it's exciting again for potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 This is absolutely better than anything we had last season. I think the January 20th? threat was as close as we got last season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Was the NAO ever negative for more than a few hours last winter?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Was the NAO ever negative for more than a few hours last winter?? Happy Hour doesn't mean the same when the bars are closed. Exactly!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Pretty sure this is a better threat than anything we faced in all of last season. If nothing else, it's exciting again for potential. Yep. Not even close!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 WRT the 12/16 event, the 12z OPs GFS would get everyone on the board. It's colder, and has the antecedent high over Canada in a better position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 12z CMC is a flush hit for everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 12z GEFS trending colder for everyone in C. PA. So far, the 12z suite is in the right direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GEFS trending colder for everyone in C. PA. So far, the 12z suite is in the right direction. Appreciate your updates and thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 And 22 minutes ago, CTP began the hysteria on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 12z GEFS mean has all of the CTP CWA below freezing for the 12/16 event. It's a clear step in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: And 22 minutes ago, CTP began the hysteria on Facebook. Ya but what about Stormtrooper or S&S or whatever that FB group is called? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said: Was the NAO ever negative for more than a few hours last winter?? On them models it was.... 12z GFS pretty much holds serve for Central/Eastern Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z CMC is a flush hit for everyone. Yeah thats a marked improvement for C PA for sure. Hoping the goal posts move inward, and not outward from here in. Nice nooners....so far. Also nice to see thermal boundary safely below us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 55 minutes ago, canderson said: Ya but what about Stormtrooper or S&S or whatever that FB group is called? Stormtrooper or S&S was the name of my Panzer Faust band in high school. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 57 minutes ago, canderson said: Ya but what about Stormtrooper or S&S or whatever that FB group is called? The Canadian's Kuchera map would be a good candidate for their snowfall forecast lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'm not really worried about temps for any of us in here right now, we don't want to force the storm too far under us with how it's being modeled on it's coastal development starting off the Carolina coast and coming up. The Canadian flirts with having that heavy snow axis just southeast of a lot of us in here, the disclaimer being that this model has been the furthest southeast the last cycle or so (minor event yesterday at 12z) and it has really come back around. The Euro has seemingly been the most amped, and that has only introduced p-type issues to maybe the SE half of Lancaster for a part of the storm. We'll see shortly where we're at with the Euro at 12z. Really shouldn't be afraid of a bit more of an Ohio Valley low either. We have the setup for the big Miller B transfer to carry over a snow swath across most of PA. This is not going to cut, and we have a good high progged to be in place. A bit stronger of an initial low could imply a more robust precip shield associated with that and prolong the duration of the storm for especially the central and SW part of the state. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 EURO Storm #1: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Well.....5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Per the 12z op Euro, everybody wins on the 12/16 storm. Take any snowmap and cut the amounts in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Per the 12z op Euro, everybody wins on the 12/16 storm. Take any snowmap and cut the amounts in half. Yeah I should have said that. I'll take half of it for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Well Euro is, snowy lol. What a hit on the eastern 2/3s of the state. Some snowmaps, these are 10:1 maps and i'm using 24 hr snowfall to separate the two potential events. This is Monday's wave, as Euro continues to support a snow event with that system: This is Wednesday/Thurs: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 12z op Euro cooks up another storm in the 12/18 timeframe, tries to get another around 12/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 @Blizzard of 93 isn't going to sleep for the next 5 nights. At that point he'll start looking at the storm on 1/3/2021. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well Euro is, snowy lol. What a hit on the eastern 2/3s of the state. Some snowmaps, these are 10:1 maps and i'm using 24 hr snowfall to separate the two potential events. This is Monday's wave, as Euro continues to support a snow event with that system: This is Wednesday/Thurs: It's so beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well Euro is, snowy lol. What a hit on the eastern 2/3s of the state. Some snowmaps, these are 10:1 maps and i'm using 24 hr snowfall to separate the two potential events. This is Monday's wave, as Euro continues to support a snow event with that system: This is Wednesday/Thurs: Im always on the edge...But its 5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 When is the Weather Channel going to name this storm....I'm on edge waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, 2001kx said: Im always on the edge...But its 5 days away The Ohio Valley low is going to be important for you and the western part of the state from the Laurel's west. The Euro had the stronger low I was posting about and it responded by getting better precip into western PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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