paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Wow GFS is suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Wow GFS is suppression city. Seems like every model is against it. Even GEFS have been much different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Seems like every model is against it. Even GEFS have been much different. . CMC looks to be a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Serious I have winds gusts pushing 40 all day. What the hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I would sign up for the 0z Canadian for early next week. and 12hrs later Point I'm trying to drive home is that players are on the field, but not sure who is qb (should be NAO- but his passer rating is not so good), and who is punter (we have several of them vying for said position. Thats quite the shift in 6 hours. GFS just went to "lost mode". Is a storm coming....I think so, but as much as we follow this stuff, I cant say w/ too much confidence. Euro stays on point, yeah that'll help, but it too had us snowing this week only 7 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Seems like every model is against it. Even GEFS have been much different. . Bingo.......doesn't inspire alot of hope/comfort as consensus still lags inside 7 days. Fortunately every model cycle seems to have one or 2 ways to snow, but goalposts are boucing all around and Canderson is too afraid to step on the field to kick da ball. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 and to further understand my concern. Full disclosure this is a known GFS bias, so not totally surprised, but wrt DEC event, we had days and days of consensus. Yes, a touchdown is still a possibility, and I'm not sure its a hail mary that is necessary, but the team needs to get their sh!t together soon. GFS looks like shredmaggedon or suppression city for next 10 days. Not even worried about the cutter it shows beyond that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Winter 2020 - Warm never a chance. Winter 2021 - -Nao for the first time in a zillion. And never a chance. will there ever be a in between winter? 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: and to further understand my concern LOL. So much for a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Winter 2020 - Warm never a chance. Winter 2021 - -Nao for the first time in a zillion. And never a chance. will there ever be a in between winter? LOL. So much for a -NAO Shortened the abbreviation. -NO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Shortened the abbreviation. -NO Perfect! Heck it snowed in May last year! We can’t get snow in January. What the .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Where is Showmethesnow I need that 20 page write up to just dream about possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I should say I did get a snow squall this morning so officially it can snow in January in Palmyra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nodoomposting Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 With so many important teleconnections in our favor, why is the weather pattern the way it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and to further understand my concern. Full disclosure this is a known GFS bias, so not totally surprised, but wrt DEC event, we had days and days of consensus. Yes, a touchdown is still a possibility, and I'm not sure its a hail mary that is necessary, but the team needs to get their sh!t together soon. GFS looks like shredmaggedon or suppression city for next 10 days. Not even worried about the cutter it shows beyond that range. The December event was a bit more straight-forward and there wasn't an established strong blocking yet at that point. This is par for the course with models trying to handle strong blocking and confluence. With regards to the next event, with that deep trough in the west I don't think the storm is going to get stuffed south. The wave coming out is going to be shooting from the trough in the west under the block toward the other trough off the East Coast and how much the heights build in between is going to be important. Look at the rest of the model suite today, we're back to an attempt at cutting and wintry mix in both the Euro and Canadian. Canadian forces a secondary before the primary really gets above our latitude but Euro takes the primary to Cleveland with a secondary. Mid level features (850/700mb) are just a bit too far NW this go around on these models, we have to keep them just under us to get us a primarily frozen event (snow, perhaps some sleet). We continue to alternate these solutions, good thing there's a lot of time yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The December event was a bit more straight-forward and there wasn't an established strong blocking yet at that point. This is par for the course with models trying to handle strong blocking and confluence. With regards to the next event, with that deep trough in the west I don't think the storm is going to get stuffed south. The wave coming out is going to be shooting from the trough in the west under the block toward the other trough off the East Coast and how much the heights build in between is going to be important. Look at the rest of the model suite today, we're back to an attempt at cutting and wintry mix in both the Euro and Canadian. Canadian forces a secondary before the primary really gets above our latitude but Euro takes the primary to Cleveland with a secondary. Mid level features (850/700mb) are just a bit too far NW this go around on these models, we have to keep them just under us to get us a primarily frozen event (snow, perhaps some sleet). We continue to alternate these solutions, good thing there's a lot of time yet. Yeah I know, but if you look at the "blocking" for next week, there's not much when we need it (LSV anyway) and our thermals are marginally ok (as of 12z's). Not sure i feel confident we are safe down here. Seeing CMC AND EURO come north scares me as were still 5 days out. We needed them to hold for another day or so for me to be able to sleep well wrt this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: The December event was a bit more straight-forward and there wasn't an established strong blocking yet at that point. This is par for the course with models trying to handle strong blocking and confluence. With regards to the next event, with that deep trough in the west I don't think the storm is going to get stuffed south. The wave coming out is going to be shooting from the trough in the west under the block toward the other trough off the East Coast and how much the heights build in between is going to be important. Look at the rest of the model suite today, we're back to an attempt at cutting and wintry mix in both the Euro and Canadian. Canadian forces a secondary before the primary really gets above our latitude but Euro takes the primary to Cleveland with a secondary. Mid level features (850/700mb) are just a bit too far NW this go around on these models, we have to keep them just under us to get us a primarily frozen event (snow, perhaps some sleet). We continue to alternate these solutions, good thing there's a lot of time yet. Thanks Mag. I hope as we get closer will come up with a solution and keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 JB hyped it, I should not have posted that. Sorry forum I may have jinxed next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 You certainly see the NWS confidence level next week with even the Partly Sunny chance of snow for Tuesday. Monday A chance of rain and snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Is there a website that archives NHS forcast each day. Like if I wanted to go back to 1/20/1995 for example, and find the NHS 3 or 5 day forecast on that date. Is there a site (pay is fine) that provides historical model run data at good resolution so that I could say pull up the forcast tempature, qpf, snow on each model run for the past 6 months at at least 24 hour increments for Harrisburg for the euro or gfs?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, paweather said: JB hyped it, I should not have posted that. Sorry forum I may have jinxed next week. No need to apologize to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 hours ago, paweather said: Where is Showmethesnow I need that 20 page write up to just dream about possibilities. Sorry Been that kind of month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Pics dont do it justice but it was nearly impossible to drive in this band of snow from this morning. Also had a lightning flash. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 hours ago, paweather said: JB hyped it, I should not have posted that. Sorry forum I may have jinxed next week. No need to apologize... The 12z Euro & EPS said that we should buckle up for a very busy winter storm week next week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Jns2183 said: Is there a website that archives NHS forcast each day. Like if I wanted to go back to 1/20/1995 for example, and find the NHS 3 or 5 day forecast on that date. Is there a site (pay is fine) that provides historical model run data at good resolution so that I could say pull up the forcast tempature, qpf, snow on each model run for the past 6 months at at least 24 hour increments for Harrisburg for the euro or gfs? . I’ve hunted for one several times to no avail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, 2001kx said: Pics dont do it justice but it was nearly impossible to drive in this band of snow from this morning. Also had a lightning flash. Was that in Houtzdale again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Was that in Houtzdale again? Yes...about 1 mile from prison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: No need to apologize... The 12z Euro & EPS said that we should buckle up for a very busy winter storm week next week! The 12z EPS still likes the idea of the early next week low tracking to the Ohio Valley & then transferring off of the Mid Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Here is the 12z EPS snow map for the early week threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The 12z Euro Op has the look of a solid front end thump of snow then mixing over to sleet and freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The next best part of the 12z Euro Op run was the chance for a second winter storm later in the week on next Thursday into Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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