Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 @MAG5035 Thank you for the honest, straightforward assessment. It just isn't cold )anything noteworthy) ANYWHERE in the country. Right now, we can get by with an acceptable storm track and enough dynamics to cool thermals. As we start getting later in the season, the lack of cold is going to kill us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I'll take it! Much better. Little further south and we will be in business.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 And then some backend to enjoy. LOL. Well at least something to track this week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Power up your Generators for some: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 GFS is active next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 So far 12z guidance looks better today for the system, GFS is more of a classic coast to coast out the latitude it came in type system.. which would generally keep it just underneath PA. Canadian actually squashed it under us completely with another shortwave trying to approach at 240. It had much stronger blocking above us (too strong in this instance). Gonna be quite changeable given the range yet and models trying to handle the block. I should clarify that I do think this system is going to be a winter event for us, but whether we can get a mostly snow event is the challenge as this has so far shown a pretty icy look. Whatever comes out is going to get deflected by that block, how much it cuts before it does so is the question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: So far 12z guidance looks better today for the system, GFS is more of a classic coast to coast out the latitude it came in type system.. which would generally keep it just underneath PA. Canadian actually squashed it under us completely with another shortwave trying to approach at 240. It had much stronger blocking above us (too strong in this instance). Gonna be quite changeable given the range yet and models trying to handle the block. I should clarify that I do think this system is going to be a winter event for us, but whether we can get a mostly snow event is the challenge as this has so far shown a pretty icy look. Whatever comes out is going to get deflected by that block, how much it cuts before it does so is the question. Thanks Mag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 EURO looks south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, paweather said: EURO looks south now. Def a change from 0z lol. Comes out in weaker pieces, and way more confluence NE. That solution has 3 possible separate events between D7-D10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Welp back to cloud tracking this week.....2:28pm Mostly Cloudy in Palmyra. Had Sunshine for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Where is NUT on the MA Forum trolling JI, at least that was entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Don't know a whole lot about these maps but Mag and others will, This looks good to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Here is another: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I keep stealing but I'll take this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 hours ago, paweather said: Where is NUT on the MA Forum trolling JI, at least that was entertaining. hehe... it was fun, but what an easy target. Nut is quietly lurkin and was thinking the Op runs might belly under the nice NAO and was thinking it didnt make sense. I'm glad todays runs brought some looks as to what I/we should expect with such blocking, but am not overly confident in much anymore. One can only see so many good looks "vaporize" to rattle logic and what one thought one understood about weather/physics..... and the cutter thing....it really is annoying....and concerning at the same time as I fear it may be part of the warming base state and what the models/analogs are struggling to recognize. ie. just because you once saw this....doesnt mean what it once did. All that said, it still looks like a fun few weeks coming up. Not looking much further for sanity's sake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The 12z EPS today was a great run with multiple winter storm chances over the next 2 weeks. The first chance is the early next week storm. The EPS still has the mean low track to the Ohio Valley with a transfer to the Mid Atlantic coast. Here is the 3 day EPS snow map, which is very nice for that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The 12z EPS then has another snow window of opportunity later next week into the end the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The overall 15 day EPS snow map is absolutely the best that we have seen this season since before the December event! Could we get the elusive chance of snow on snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The 0z Euro provided 2 Winter Storm chances for next week. For the early week storm, It wouldn’t take much of a shift to the south with the storm track to give a mostly snow event to our southern tier. As it stands with this run, it would be mostly snow for the northern half of CTP. The southern half of CTP would have a heavy mix changing to snow as the low transfers off of the coast. The next threat is incoming next Thursday night into Friday at the end of the ten day run. It would have been nice to see the next 6 to 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The 0z EPS agrees with the Op Euro with multiple winter storm threats over the next 10 days to 2 weeks for CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 DC in shambles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 While everyone is concentrating on the model runs, it looks like a few of you could pick up some LES. Some light snow here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Snowed sometime last night or early morning.Few flakes on my car.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Snowed sometime last night or early morning. Few flakes on my car. . Just came to post the same thing - 2nd trace for me in the past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Let's go 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 This does not look like a good start: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Another ICE Storm look @ 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 18 hours of ICE and still going. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I'll take it in my zone forecast even though it is 30% LOL. Wednesday Scattered snow showers, mainly before 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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