Caveman Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Jim Marusak said: Upstream river forecast crest numbers are getting a bit scary. Sunbury - mod flood - 27 ft Danville - mod flood - 26.6 ft Bloomsburg - mod - 26.4 ft Wilkes Barre Courthouse - major - 33.7 ft Meshoppen - moderate - 36.4 ft Towanda - Moderate/Major 24ft Waverly - major - 20ft these types of numbers are looking an awful lot like January 1996 style numbers. And NWS-Binghamton is hinting there may be some chunks of ice in the Susquehanna as well, which may make things worse if they jam under a bridge. Let's hope this isn't the case on Christmas day. I was just up to Towanda yesterday and there was very little to no ice in the river. Ice dams should not be a concern. Obviously they do have quite a snowpack up in that region however which is not good with these high dew points and mild temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 good to hear on the lack of ice upstream. that would be a real complication if there was a bunch up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Crazy temperature swings going on here. Over the past 15 minutes the temp has now dropped 5 degrees going from 52 down to 47. Heavy rain continues with 1.77" recorded so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 56 in Lanco. Couple spots of white left I the yard. They will be gone by morning. hoping the best for all low landers. wishing you all a very Merry Christmas and may your ground be white. Mine won’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 It seems like the most significant flood potential focuses on the Susquehanna main-stem (and NE PA tributaries), especially in the Upper Sus Valley on into NE PA where that particular region has the trifecta of significant rainfall, the most significant existing snowpack, and a several hour period where warm temps via southerly flow punch up into eastern PA to further enhance a more rapid snow melt. Short range models like the NAM have been downright excessive with rain totals, and the next several hours this evening will reveal if that comes fully to fruition as radar trends look to be starting to focus the heavier rainfall rates into eastern PA along the Susquehanna. The other major tributaries coming from the central counties (West Branch and Juniata watersheds) look to have a significant rise but most point forecasts appear to stay below flood stage along those rivers. Temps in this part of C-PA are locked into the upper 30s-low 40s and as mentioned, heavier rainfall is starting to focus towards eastern PA. Appears that any surge in temps in the central probably comes close to/with the frontal passage as the stable b-layer gets mixed out. Lack of big time flooding coming from those two tributaries probably prevents the main stem from going full blown '96 repeat in lieu of a more minor-moderate flood event coming primarily from upstream in NE PA/southern NY. Definitely not ideal anyway you slice it, what an ugly Christmas Eve weather-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: It seems like the most significant flood potential focuses on the Susquehanna main-stem (and NE PA tributaries), especially in the Upper Sus Valley on into NE PA where that particular region has the trifecta of significant rainfall, the most significant existing snowpack, and a several hour period where warm temps via southerly flow punch up into eastern PA to further enhance a more rapid snow melt. Short range models like the NAM have been downright excessive with rain totals, and the next several hours this evening will reveal if that comes fully to fruition as radar trends look to be starting to focus the heavier rainfall rates into eastern PA along the Susquehanna. The other major tributaries coming from the central counties (West Branch and Juniata watersheds) look to have a significant rise but most point forecasts appear to stay below flood stage along those rivers. Temps in this part of C-PA are locked into the upper 30s-low 40s and as mentioned, heavier rainfall is starting to focus towards eastern PA. Appears that any surge in temps in the central probably comes close to/with the frontal passage as the stable b-layer gets mixed out. Lack of big time flooding coming from those two tributaries probably prevents the main stem from going full blown '96 repeat in lieu of a more minor-moderate flood event coming primarily from upstream in NE PA/southern NY. Definitely not ideal anyway you slice it, what an ugly Christmas Eve weather-wise. I've picked up .33" of rain in the past 20 minutes. She's dumping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Good there is little ice upstate. 96 had a lot of ice involved. I lived along the river in York Co (across from Marietta) and watched boats coming down. House was on high ground so stopped short but had huge ice chunks till late spring in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, dcfox1 said: Good there is little ice upstate. 96 had a lot of ice involved. I lived along the river in York Co (across from Marietta) and watched boats coming down. House was on high ground so stopped short but had huge ice chunks till spring in I can remember doing a water rescue down around Cargill. Helicopter trying to get people off there roof, and huge ice chunks floating by. Not sure if you were on duty that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 24 minutes ago, dcfox1 said: Good there is little ice upstate. 96 had a lot of ice involved. I lived along the river in York Co (across from Marietta) and watched boats coming down. House was on high ground so stopped short but had huge ice chunks till late spring in front. That it did. Even the Delaware (which almost claimed my car) was bad. I parked in a parking lot on Larry Holmes Drive in Easton to check out the river, and the ice jammed up downstream, and I literally had to sprint to my car to get it moved. Fifteen minutes later, the lot was under 4-6 feet of water. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 25 minutes ago, daxx said: I can remember doing a water rescue down around Cargill. Helicopter trying to get people off there roof, and huge ice chunks floating by. Not sure if you were on duty that day. Actually I was off that day but heard it on the scanner and heard about it the next shift. That guy should had have gotten out of there the day before. It Always floods there. He was a drunk. It was was at riverfront park and he rented it from the twp. It was torn down now and made part of the park. You were right the road to it is right at what was Cargill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Over 1.1” rain already, winds in the 30s now. Beautiful Christmas Eve, this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, dcfox1 said: Actually I was off that day but heard it on the scanner and heard about it the next shift. That guy should had have gotten out of there the day before. It Always floods there. He was a drunk. It was was at riverfront park and he rented it from the twp. It was torn down now and made part of the park. You were right the road to it is right at what was Cargill. We ran a lot of calls those couple of weeks from the blizzard to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 In a dry slot now. Not sure if that slug of heavy rain down near DC affects us, it looks like it might miss east. Sitting at. 96" for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: In a dry slot now. Not sure if that slug of heavy rain down near DC affects us, it looks like it might miss east. Sitting at. 96" for the day. It is a pretty serious dryslot...thank god this hasnt been snow! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, Anduril said: It is a pretty serious dryslot...thank god this hasnt been snow! lol I was just going to ask, what's up with these huge dryslots lately? I though this was supposed to be a solid rainer prior to fropa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 This is what's left of my foot of snow from last week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Up to 1.13" with on and off rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Dry slot starting to fill in a bit...see what we can pickup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 New Meso out for many of our areas (maybe cutting out I-81 corridor S of Harrisburg) WPC_MD0877 Quote Rainfall coverage and intensity has increased over the past few hours in response to strong warm air advection in advance of a strong cold front approaching from the west. The low level jet is impressive with south to southeast flow of 60 to 80 mph at 850mb, and this is advecting copious deep moisture from the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico over cold and snow covered grounds for most of the outlook area. Dewpoints are rising well into the 50s south of the warm front, and this will accelerate snow melt in addition to the rainfall. Much of the existing snowpack across northeast Pa and extending into east-central NY has over two inches of liquid water content, and in combination with 1 to 2 inches of forecast rainfall through 3 am, will likely result in some aerial flooding and rising river levels. If the snow melting rate is quick enough, some flash flooding may also occur near creeks and streams. The latest suite of CAM guidance is suggesting the potential for nearly two inches of additional rainfall over the Catskills and Poconos, and this will tend to increase the threat of flooding for those locations. Another region of enhanced rainfall, with amounts potentially reaching or exceeding one inch, will likely extend between State College and Syracuse. Although actual rainfall rates are not expected to be impressive, mainly under half an inch per hour, the combination of duration and snow melt is the main concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 hours ago, Voyager said: I was just going to ask, what's up with these huge dryslots lately? I though this was supposed to be a solid rainer prior to fropa... Thank goodness! We don’t need more rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 @MAG5035 How is the cold front doing in your Area now? What are your thoughts on the prospects of seeing some snow from your area over to the Susquehanna Valley tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Frontal passage has occurred here, pretty decent gusty winds. Temp only got to about 41 or so during this whole thing today (about an hour or so ago) and it's back down to 38 already. Frozen precip shouldn't be too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 hours ago, Voyager said: This is what's left of my foot of snow from last week... Four hours later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Extremely heavy rain - and strong winds. Both strongest of the day by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Changeover is starting to occur. Sleet, rain, maybe some wet flakes. Temp back to 35ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @MAG5035 How is the cold front doing in your Area now? What are your thoughts on the prospects of seeing some snow from your area over to the Susquehanna Valley tomorrow? I still don't think much makes it over to the Sus Valley but we'll have to see how much precip hangs on behind the cold front. Short range guidance like the HRRR and NAM haven't had much lingering by the time it's cold enough. There could perhaps be enough to witness a changeover period and perhaps a coating in spots in the region east of I-99 over to the Sus Valley. The big thing to watch first thing tomorrow morning is for untreated stuff to freeze up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 There's two boundaries that are noticeable on velocity images. One associated with the thin line of intense rainfall in the warm sector (impacting H-burg and LSV) and a secondary boundary further west, which i've noted with the blue dash.. that is the actual cold front boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Rainfall from this latest torrential downpour brings my storm total to 1.66" with rain still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Straight-up moderate to heavy wind driven sleet at the moment, maybe a couple flakes. Starting to accumulate and deck's starting to freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 That squall line meant business when it blew through Schuylkill County. Most of our summer thunderstorms don't have rainfall that intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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