Burghblizz Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Tolleris is a bit east of most guidance, but he thinks true central has a shot for significant snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 CTP doesn’t think high winds mix down. Something about mid levels keeping them up tHere which is way above my pay grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 No offense to DT, but I don't understand his map. How can his "up to 1" line go up directly against his 3" line? Shouldn't there be a 1-3" area somewhere in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: No offense to DT, but I don't understand his map. How can his "up to 1" line go up directly against his 3" line? Shouldn't there be a 1-3" area somewhere in between? I think he has been doing it that way close to 20 years. The intent is to look at the lines and project based on what lines u are between and/or near. But you are right, those gaps can get pretty tight in some areas, plus he goes from <1 straight to 3 in this case. So if you are 20 miles east of the 3” line, no clue if he is thinking “almost 3” or “under 1”. Then you hit the 6” line 30 miles the other way Plus it doesn’t account for local climo factors. Much better ways to present it these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 6 hours ago, kerplunk said: That really does suck. Sorry to hear about it. Hopefully you can find an insurance company that looks at individual situations instead of going by blanket company policies. Know that may be a long shot, but wishing you the best. Thanks! I'm hoping that someone will see my 20 years of safe driving and make an exception to the recent experience requirement. As for the weather, it appears that the rain is going to be the biggest issue. Some of the models are creeping up to the 4 inch mark for tomorrow in my "backyard". That kind of rain, along with the currently saturated soil will cause BIG problems if the high wind gusts mix down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: No offense to DT, but I don't understand his map. How can his "up to 1" line go up directly against his 3" line? Shouldn't there be a 1-3" area somewhere in between? I agree... but I’m just happy to be going to sleep on the night before Christmas Eve with a good amount of snow on the ground. We might lose most of it tomorrow except for the large plowed and shoveled piles. Hopefully we can manage a dusting to perhaps a heavy coating on Christmas morning to add to the festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Here is the 7 day pattern on the 12z EPS for the first week of January. I also included the 7 day precip anomaly showing above normal precip up and down the East coast. It is like someone allowed @pasnownut and I to draw the map! We just need to be patient and this pattern should deliver some snow by the first week of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 The 12z GFS today gave an example of the type of storm that this pattern could deliver. I would sign up for this storm right now! Again, we just need to be patient! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 The 0z Euro last night showed a Winter storm getting ready to move in to our region at the end of the 10 day run. Our time will eventually come...patience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 This pattern as we begin 2021 is still loaded with potential. The blocking looks to continue to build and persist through the end of the 15 day 0z EPS run. It is just a matter of time until we are tracking a specific winter storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Check out CTP's briefing package for today into this weekend. It's 15 pages long... https://www.weather.gov/media/ctp/Briefing/briefing.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1wbiwd-OmTl_PQHqDbaeS1nOTxFpu-YxC3VMGz-9H1xl1v0aZ0Zeh6rJw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, Voyager said: Check out CTP's briefing package for today into this weekend. It's 15 pages long... https://www.weather.gov/media/ctp/Briefing/briefing.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1wbiwd-OmTl_PQHqDbaeS1nOTxFpu-YxC3VMGz-9H1xl1v0aZ0Zeh6rJw Crazy weather day in store for us this Christmas Eve! I am happy to be waking up on Christmas Eve morning with snow on the ground! Hopefully those 4 hours of sleet that we didn’t enjoy last week will help to fight off the melting from the rain and 1 day warm up today! Maybe we can get a fresh coating of snow for Christmas morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Timing is everything...can you imagine this all being snow. We would be set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, pawatch said: Timing is everything...can you imagine this all being snow. We would be set. It’s not too far away...western PA & WV are getting good snow later today and Warnings are up for them! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I know you are all thinking snow. I am here in Williamsport trying not to think of the mess we will get from 25" of snow that is mostly still here, temperatures in the 50s, several inches of rain and a Christmas Day refreeze. I can't think of the last time something like this happened. This is quite a collection of extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 26 minutes ago, CoralRed said: I know you are all thinking snow. I am here in Williamsport trying not to think of the mess we will get from 25" of snow that is mostly still here, temperatures in the 50s, several inches of rain and a Christmas Day refreeze. I can't think of the last time something like this happened. This is quite a collection of extremes. It’s called 2020. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Merry Christmas, Everyone! Let’s hope for a Xmas gift in the word of snow the next couple of weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 5 hours ago, CoralRed said: I know you are all thinking snow. I am here in Williamsport trying not to think of the mess we will get from 25" of snow that is mostly still here, temperatures in the 50s, several inches of rain and a Christmas Day refreeze. I can't think of the last time something like this happened. This is quite a collection of extremes. One weather App was showing us picking up 3.35" of rain. Last time something like that happened was 1996 10 people died from the flooding. 1000's displaced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Predictions have the Susquehanna in Harrisburg reaching 19’ Saturday - that’s moderate flooding here. Basements impacted mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, canderson said: Predictions have the Susquehanna in Harrisburg reaching 19’ Saturday - that’s moderate flooding here. Basements impacted mostly. That is insane given how low the river has been. The stream of moisture fetch from the gulf up to the East Coast is also insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, paweather said: That is insane given how low the river has been. The stream of moisture fetch from the gulf up to the East Coast is also insane. It’s currently at around 3.5’ - quite insane indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, canderson said: It’s currently at around 3.5’ - quite insane indeed. Just plain crazy. Hope you make out OK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, paweather said: Just plain crazy. Hope you make out OK! If my house floods, that’s the least of my worries. The capitol will be underwater essentially LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 hours ago, canderson said: Predictions have the Susquehanna in Harrisburg reaching 19’ Saturday - that’s moderate flooding here. Basements impacted mostly. Upstream river forecast crest numbers are getting a bit scary. Sunbury - mod flood - 27 ft Danville - mod flood - 26.6 ft Bloomsburg - mod - 26.4 ft Wilkes Barre Courthouse - major - 33.7 ft Meshoppen - moderate - 36.4 ft Towanda - Moderate/Major 24ft Waverly - major - 20ft these types of numbers are looking an awful lot like January 1996 style numbers. And NWS-Binghamton is hinting there may be some chunks of ice in the Susquehanna as well, which may make things worse if they jam under a bridge. Let's hope this isn't the case on Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Seems like the heavy rain has been in upper sus valley and NY state where they had the most snow. All that is coming down here to LSV. It would be much worse if not for the low river levels. Not related but what was the year of the big Ice storm 8 or so years ago. I lost power for 2 1/2 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 39 minutes ago, dcfox1 said: Seems like the heavy rain has been in upper sus valley and NY state where they had the most snow. All that is coming down here to LSV. It would be much worse if not for the low river levels. Not related but what was the year of the big Ice storm 8 or so years ago. I lost power for 2 1/2 day. Agreed. This front is hardly making it to the east all day with a surge of moisture continuing to come up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 If my house floods, that’s the least of my worries. The capitol will be underwater essentially LOL. My house is about 35-40 feet above the swatara about 6-7 miles from the Susquehanna. It gets high but we joke that if our house floods so will all of Hershey and Middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Puking snow! Oh dang sorry rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Have measured 1” rain so far with a high of 40.8º and now sitting at 40.1º. Am assuming temps may rise some ahead of the front, but so far we’re way below the predicted 50º. Only have about 3” of snow left on grassy areas. Lots of dirty snow piles. Would be nice if we could get enough to whiten everything for tomorrow. Wishing everyone good luck with the potential flood situation. Nobody needs that at any time of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Temp just shot up 10 degrees from 42 to 52 in only 15 minutes! Heavy rain continues to fall with 1.67" recorded so far. The snowpack is really about to take a severe beating with temps above 50. The sudden warmth in the air is leading to fog from the remaining snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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