Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

[pasnownut]

21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

NFC East = Central PA's winter of 2019-2020.  

ain't that the truth.  

[pasnownut]

12Z GFS is a perfect depiction of what i was mentioning earlier and having the LP ride the boundary. 

Go look at 144-160.  It's almost like they let me draw the maps how I wanted it to happen.

That'd be a crowd pleaser for sure. Here's the money panel but go look at the hours above.

Happy weekend all.

 

 

[kerplunk]

So Weather Underground was onto something after all. 

At the time, they were the only one I could find forecasting anything remotely like the image I posted.  So I was thinking; Okay, it’s still 7 days out, maybe they see something none of the models or any other forecasting services are seeing.  But that would be highly unusual.  Almost made me think the site was messed up and maybe parsing info for the wrong location!

But maybe not...

[pasnownut]

12/29 looks to have some potential as well.  Nice to see as well, but I'm getting ahead of myself as were waayyyyy out there.  

Stronger signal for fun times ahead is good enough for now.  

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

I've never seen snow on Christmas day, I'd absolutely love it. We did get snow on Christmas Eve a few years back, iirc. 

2002 bro

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

2002 bro

12/25/02 was just a Christmas miracle.  12" when they were calling for like 2-4, and then kept upping totals as the dreaded changeover went from delayed to denied. 

Was just a thing of beauty and a rarity when short term/nowcasting went in our favor.  I spent that morning watching kids n gifts w/ one eye, and 56k modem slooowly downloading radar and NWS updates w/ the other.  The good ol' days.

 

[Superstorm]

12/25/02 was just a Christmas miracle.  12" when they were calling for like 2-4, and then kept upping totals as the dreaded changeover went from delayed to denied. 
Was just a thing of beauty and a rarity when short term/nowcasting went in our favor.  I spent that morning watching kids n gifts w/ one eye, and 56k modem slooowly downloading radar and NWS updates w/ the other.  The good ol' days.
 

Drove from Selinsgrove to Lancaster that day during the height of the storm.

I don’t think my girlfriend at the time could believe I could plow through that snow in a Honda Civic.


.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

2002 bro

I was at the University of Texas then lol 

[pasnownut]

Don't look now, but there's a chance for some mood snow late weekend and early next week.   Couple models trying to link up some energy.

 

[MAG5035]

On the X-mas eve system/arctic front passage, not to be pessimistic but Models shifting toward the slower, much more amplified solutions is definitely a case of be careful what you wish for. 

For our region this may work out in western..perhaps some of interior central PA but I personally don't see much upside to this in the Sus Valley.  GFS is the better scenario, focusing on the second wave running up the frontal boundary. Yea there's some snow to be had but it also delivers a ton of QPF (a lot of it rain) beforehand in eastern PA. Euro's even worse with more of a straight up lake's cutter and less emphasized secondary low that probably wouldn't change precip over in time for much. That sends a bigger warm push and 1"+ of rain into places that just got a boat load of snow before maybe a few hour period of snow at the end. All in what you want I guess. You might see that period of snow at some point X-mas eve to X-mas morning, but you might lose most of the pack to see it. I'd rather see the front progressed through faster and maybe set the next event up. Pretty far out in range yet for now, but it does seem like models are heading toward making this more of a QPF laden event. 

In the meantime there is a couple other weaker systems (Sun/Mon, and Tuesday-ish) to resolve, as one of those systems could muster up enough to put a swath of something across a part of the region. 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

On the X-mas eve system/arctic front passage, not to be pessimistic but Models shifting toward the slower, much more amplified solutions is definitely a case of be careful what you wish for. 

For our region this may work out in western..perhaps some of interior central PA but I personally don't see much upside to this in the Sus Valley.  GFS is the better scenario, focusing on the second wave running up the frontal boundary. Yea there's some snow to be had but it also delivers a ton of QPF (a lot of it rain) beforehand in eastern PA. Euro's even worse with more of a straight up lake's cutter and less emphasized secondary low that probably wouldn't change precip over in time for much. That sends a bigger warm push and 1"+ of rain into places that just got a boat load of snow before maybe a few hour period of snow at the end. All in what you want I guess. You might see that period of snow at some point X-mas eve to X-mas morning, but you might lose most of the pack to see it. I'd rather see the front progressed through faster and maybe set the next event up. Pretty far out in range yet for now, but it does seem like models are heading toward making this more of a QPF laden event. 

In the meantime there is a couple other weaker systems (Sun/Mon, and Tuesday-ish) to resolve, as one of those systems could muster up enough to put a swath of something across a part of the region. 

Yeah i wasnt focusing on MBY, but thought CTP and west might be liking the potential.  I'd rather not lose any snow as well, so yeah just a frontal boundary and setting up something to follow would be great.  It really did ramp up the qpf, which would kill our precious pack, but I was just not seeing enough spacing for something to hang back/stay separate.  Plenty of model runs left and if that could happen, then all the better.

[Itstrainingtime]

The thing I hated to see today on some models for next week was temps in the 50s to near 60 with high dews and QPF. That trifecta obliterates snowpack, I don't care how much ice is in it. I watched a 30" snowpack get reduced to scattered piles in 10 hours back in January 96. 

Other than that, there seems to be a lot to be excited about going forward. Hate to lose a white Christmas the day before, but if we can score multiple times thereafter, that's a nice payback. 

[anotherman]

The thing I hated to see today on some models for next week was temps in the 50s to near 60 with high dews and QPF. That trifecta obliterates snowpack, I don't care how much ice is in it. I watched a 30" snowpack get reduced to scattered piles in 10 hours back in January 96. 

Yes that would be a kick in the nuts right before Christmas.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Yes that would be a kick in the nuts right before Christmas.

If he's @pasnownut around, I say we kick away...

 

[Voyager]

Seems a tad warm, but for now anyway, CTP has rain and snow showers for the 24th and 25th for the Skook...

Thursday

A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night

A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Christmas Day

A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[anotherman]

If he's [mention=2710]pasnownut[/mention] around, I say we kick away...
 

[Ahoff]

So, with the possibilities for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, as it stands on the models now, is it better to be farther west in PA right now?

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

So, with the possibilities for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, as it stands on the models now, is it better to be farther west in PA right now?

as Mag suggested, the warm flow out in front coupled w/ the notable qpf (as per 12z run), would be the death of many snowmen in the state prior to the frontal passage and what looked like something popping on it, and then we try to freshen up whatever snow is left on the backside.  verbatim, yes west would do better, but if that storm goes poof, you'd likely see much less anafrontal snows.  With it 7 days out, lots of different looks still likely.

[Ahoff]

10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

as Mag suggested, the warm flow out in front coupled w/ the notable qpf (as per 12z run), would be the death of many snowmen in the state prior to the frontal passage and what looked like something popping on it, and then we try to freshen up whatever snow is left on the backside.  verbatim, yes west would do better, but if that storm goes poof, you'd likely see much less anafrontal snows.  With it 7 days out, lots of different looks still likely.

Thanks.  Yes, lots of time and solutions left.  Will be interesting.  Whatever happens though, I hope there is snow on the ground for Christmas.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

as Mag suggested, the warm flow out in front coupled w/ the notable qpf (as per 12z run), would be the death of many snowmen in the state prior to the frontal passage and what looked like something popping on it, and then we try to freshen up whatever snow is left on the backside.  verbatim, yes west would do better, but if that storm goes poof, you'd likely see much less anafrontal snows.  With it 7 days out, lots of different looks still likely.

The 12z Euro & 18z GFS are on board with the post front snow chance on Christmas!

If we lose some of our snow pack before the front, so be it if that is the price to pay for a several hour period of Christmas Eve or Christmas Day snow that could put down a few inches.

It’s just great that this is even on table to track this week! 

[Blizzard of 93]

13 hours ago, pasnownut said:

@showmethesnow great writeup.  Just parsing over overnights, and while not perfect, there surely is s steady stream of opportunities thru year end (and beyond)  Will gladly take my chances w/ what the pattern is showing.  6z gins up a coastal that pops on the frontal boundary.  Not buying the evolution....but would take the result.  

@showmethesnow Thanks for posting in here and please come back as much as possible!

This pattern is loaded with potential!

Before we even get to the Christmas possibility, there are a couple of small events to keep an eye on from Sunday to Tuesday that could freshen up our snowpack with light snow.

[Itstrainingtime]

Skies cleared here and temp has responded. On my drive home from Elizabethtown temp ranged from 11 up to 22. 17.4 here at home.

[showmethesnow]

I know some on these boards are holding out hope for this Mon/Tues timeframe for in the east. I myself don't see it with what is being currently being depicted on the models and think time has pretty much run out to see the changes we need to. Below we have the vort map at 500's leading into that time period. As you can note we are seeing a fairly vigorous short wave over Oklahoma which is the focus of any potential storm. The problem we have here is we are not seeing enough separation between the two to see what we need to see.  What is occurring is that the lead SW (mid-Atlantic) is suppressing the flow behind it and not allowing any ridging to develop in front of the energy trailing behind it (note the flat isobars between these two features). That trailing energy needs some form of ridging in front to allow it to turn and amplify. But instead it is encountering suppression which is squashing it and stringing out the energy where we lose any spin in the atmosphere. This is why we are seeing a broad area of lower pressures running up the east coast from the gulf with no clearly defined low pressure as there is just nothing in the mid-levels for the surface to focus on.

Now if you refuse to give up there is one thing you can root for. Hope that the front running energy over the Mid-Atlantic is 12+ hours quicker (red circle over NE). This separation would allow some form of ridging to develop allowing the SW axis to turn towards a neutral/negative state instead of being squashed. The greater the separation the better the turning of the axis. If we would see this it would not only provide something for the surface to key on but it also possibly puts into play the trailing energy we see just north of Nebraska. Right now it is more a hinderance to any possible storm development but put in place a better defined neutral/negative tilted SW in front of it and it could potentially become a player as chances are decent we would see a better drop from that feature where it could possibly be put into play.

 

 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Great analysis @showmethesnow 
I would be happy with just a few snow showers or minor period of light snow over the next couple of days to give a coating to the current snowpack.

What are your thoughts on the chances for the Christmas Eve front and potential for a post front period of snow ?

[mahantango#1]

1 degree this morn. It's cold!

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GFS has a little period of light snow tomorrow for a good part of CTP.

 

[showmethesnow]

@Blizzard of 93

I know the models have been teasing us with the possibility of anafront snows for around Christmas. For most of us that is quite often time fools gold outside of those that may have the benefit of elevation, latitude and/or Lake influences. The models just do not handle that setup well as they often times hold onto the moisture post frontal when in fact it gets shut off much sooner. That said I do see several possibilities. Possibilities that could be more impactful as far as our snow chances vs. the ana-front snows. At this time with what is currently depicted they mostly revolve around what we see with the energy over N Minnesota. The problem we have currently is that we see massive ridging running up the east coast in front of the developing storm. Pretty much a non-starter for our snow chances in the east except for anafront snows. But there is a solution to this problem and it is on the table. If you note we have energy running over top, in N Minnesota, of the storm and the deep trough it is embedded in. Right now per the models this energy is being influenced by this trough and being drawn into it. But if in fact we were to see this energy out race this trough eastward (red circle) it would change the dynamics of the setup fairly significantly. Instead of this energy dumping into the trough helping to pump up the ridging in front of the storm it would instead help to knockdown the heights in the east. This would put into play several possibilities and they mostly involve the trailing energy we see in the Pacific NW. We are sitting at 5+ days days in model land so there is plenty of time to see the changes we need, especially when it involves NS/PV energy which the models quite often times mishandle (timing/placement) outside of 2/3 days. In fact looking over the most recent runs I am seeing a tendency for the models to be quicker with this NS feature (over Minn.). So for those hoping for a Christmas miracle (or shortly thereafter) I wouldn't give up just yet. Let's see where we stand at 3 days out. It may surprise.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 6z GFS for Christmas Eve night! 
Rain changes to snow as soon as the cold front comes through. This run verbatim it delivers 3 or 4 inches of snow to a good chunk of CTP just in time for Christmas!

 

[Gordo74]

21 hours ago, canderson said:

Do any of you have the Ego battery-powered snowblower, by chance? I'm interested in it - and Ego makes good yard stuff and you can just use the same battery for every tool so it's a nice system. 

I bought one while HD was clearing them out due to the Lowes exclusivity deal at end of summer. I have EGO everything else. I've not needed a snowblower in the 8 years I've been in this house but I'm glad I pulled the trigger this year!

It's "just" the single stage one (they came out with a 2 stage this year), but it handled the 7" and 11.5" here no issue this year so far, including the plow slush at the end of the driveway with zero - and I mean ZERO - issue. Much better than any gas blower I've used. Probably due to the torque of electric.

Here's a video from the far north which convinced me that I'd be fine to wait until the end of snow to use it last week. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

@Blizzard of 93

I know the models have been teasing us with the possibility of anafront snows for around Christmas. For most of us that is quite often time fools gold outside of those that may have the benefit of elevation, latitude and/or Lake influences. The models just do not handle that setup well as they often times hold onto the moisture post frontal when in fact it gets shut off much sooner. That said I do see several possibilities. Possibilities that could be more impactful as far as our snow chances vs. the ana-front snows. At this time with what is currently depicted they mostly revolve around what we see with the energy over N Minnesota. The problem we have currently is that we see massive ridging running up the east coast in front of the developing storm. Pretty much a non-starter for our snow chances in the east except for anafront snows. But there is a solution to this problem and it is on the table. If you note we have energy running over top, in N Minnesota, of the storm and the deep trough it is embedded in. Right now per the models this energy is being influenced by this trough and being drawn into it. But if in fact we were to see this energy out race this trough eastward (red circle) it would change the dynamics of the setup fairly significantly. Instead of this energy dumping into the trough helping to pump up the ridging in front of the storm it would instead help to knockdown the heights in the east. This would put into play several possibilities and they mostly involve the trailing energy we see in the Pacific NW. We are sitting at 5+ days days in model land so there is plenty of time to see the changes we need, especially when it involves NS/PV energy which the models quite often times mishandle (timing/placement) outside of 2/3 days. In fact looking over the most recent runs I am seeing a tendency for the models to be quicker with this NS feature (over Minn.). So for those hoping for a Christmas miracle (or shortly thereafter) I wouldn't give up just yet. Let's see where we stand at 3 days out. It may surprise.

Yes, several pieces to the puzzle at this time. It’s great to even be able to discuss even the chance of snow on Christmas Eve.

If we are left with just the Ana-front potential as currently modeled, do you think that there would be enough moisture left behind the front from the trailing wave to deliver a few hour period of snow that could even put down a couple of inches of snow in the Susquehanna Valley?