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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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2 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Smells like snow. :santa:

Soo....whatdya think about Horsts call?

The warm nose is there, but its not a strong one IMO, and as i parse over meso's we only lose 850's and below for a 2-4 hr window.  You see any surprises?  I think we go to sleet at best, but little if any zr (and most models show this).  I guess I'm hoping for dynamic cooling during max qpf to help us (if there are any surprises to be had for LSV).

 

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Soo....whatdya think about Horsts call?
The warm nose is there, but its not a strong one IMO, and as i parse over meso's we only lose 850's and below for a 2-4 hr window.  You see any surprises?  I think we go to sleet at best, but little if any zr (and most models show this).  I guess I'm hoping for dynamic cooling during max qpf to help us (if there are any surprises to be had for LSV).
 

That will be the key. Get into heavier rates and we will promptly flip back to snow, IMO.

If we get too close or in dry slot, sleet will linger longer.


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20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Soo....whatdya think about Horsts call?

The warm nose is there, but its not a strong one IMO, and as i parse over meso's we only lose 850's and below for a 2-4 hr window.  You see any surprises?  I think we go to sleet at best, but little if any zr (and most models show this).  I guess I'm hoping for dynamic cooling during max qpf to help us (if there are any surprises to be had for LSV).

 

He’s one of the best there is, especially for this region. 
 

My thoughts are similar to his. The warm nose will no doubt climb into SE counties...how far it goes north is the million dollar question. I’m in Manheim, but I still think I’ll flip to sleet at some point, but could also be timed with any potential dry slot. 
 

The warm nose is actually above 850, so 850/925 T maps look good, but the sleet period will be due to what’s happening between 800-700mb. 
 

Regardless, the thump is going to be thumpin’ and if the back end deform zone can get going like the RGEM shows, then even far SE zones will finish off with some fun. 
 

Either way, it’s the best shot at wintry weather we’ve had in several years, and given how much this year has sucked, I plan to soak it alllllll in. 
 

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