Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

[pasnownut]

28 minutes ago, JTrout said:

My wifes family has a cabin in Wellsboro, right at the start of the canyon in Darling Run(1/2 mile off 6). We usually do one or two trips a year spring and summer. 

Awesome. Great area eh?

[Blizzard of 93]

While we wait for 0z runs tonight, here is a closer look at the 18z Euro. Some mixing gets into the southern tier at the height of the storm, but from the turnpike on north, this run stays all snow.

 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

As the low pivots east, everyone is all snow through daybreak on Thursday.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just to see the beauty of it again... here are the 18z Euro snow maps.

 

[canderson]

Hey @psuhoffman - you’ve had some excellent posts this evening in the MA forum. Any thoughts on us up here (SE of, say, State College)? 

[paweather]

0z time. 

[MAG5035]

39 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Hey folks. I’m headed to Williamsport early tomorrow morning. I’m beyond excited haha...couple questions

1) looks like the storm ends early tomorrow. How are the roads up my way? I should be near an interstate. I drive a car not a truck/suv. Think I may be able to get out Thursday night?

2) how’s the instability looking up this way? I’d love to experience some thunder snow. 

3) my goal is 18” I think the duration will hurt a bit. I think the snow maps are a bit overdone because of it, but who knows. Do you guys think someone my way might hit 30?! 

Unless your already booked up in Williamsport, since your leaving early in the morning I'd have a good look at 0z and 6z guidance to make sure the swath of excessive snowfall is still going through there directly. A couple backup options might be State College, somewhere up US 15 between Harrisburg and Willamsport (Selinsgrove-ish) or Lewistown on the US 322 corridor that goes between Harrisburg and State College... although I think any of those options are looking pretty good at the moment haha.

All those places have pretty good roads so I would imagine they'll be reasonable by Thursday evening since this is supposed to end by daybreak Thur. If they aren't, well then you probably picked the right place for your snow chase haha. 

CTP mentioned about CSI banding in their discussion, that's the kind of setup you could easily get thundersnow or certainly very intense snow rates out of.

Quote

Elsewhere, all model guidance is in good agreement, advertising
a Winter Storm for the memories across much of Central PA, The
Susq Valley and east to the Poconos and I-81 corridor. Expect a
high probability for over 1 foot of snow within the region
bounded by I-81 and I-80, with as much as 20 inches in spots
from Scent PA, to the Western Poconos and Endless Mtns region NE
of KIPT.

This target area will see a one-two (maybe even three) punch of
warm advection heavy snow later Wednesday afternoon and
evening, followed by a period of peak CSI-banded heavy snow with
the potential for Thunder snow later Wed Evening through a few
hours after midnight as the nose of a strong 50-60 kt easterly
850 mb jet and 130 kt upper jet focuses hefty uvvel and
slantwise instability near and just to the NW of I-81.

And lastly, I'm still on the fence with these Jan 2016-esque totals that persist on model guidance. Within what looks like pretty much an area wide 10-20", I certainly think at least a thinner stripe of 2'+ is possible anywhere between I-99/220 and I-81 depending on where these intense bands set up. These bands are likely to have better temps aloft in the snow growth layer to boost snow ratios being located in the central part of the state. A 30" is doable, but that would be one heck of an experience to get there since this looks like about a 15-16hr storm. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Who posted a few years ago "a day in the life" regarding our main posters. Please post it again for good luck

Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk
 

That would have been me. I actually made a couple of editions to update on new posters. It's still posted, probably on page 2 of our main page by now.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z EPS looks good for all of CTP.

 

[paweather]

[WmsptWx]

Who had Lewistown as the big winner?

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Who had Lewistown as the big winner?

I thought Palmyra? 

[2001kx]

[paweather]

[paweather]

Here you go all try to follow the lines.  * Note this is not my forecast. 

[Heisy]

24 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Unless your already booked up in Williamsport, since your leaving early in the morning I'd have a good look at 0z and 6z guidance to make sure the swath of excessive snowfall is still going through there directly. A couple backup options might be State College, somewhere up US 15 between Harrisburg and Willamsport (Selinsgrove-ish) or Lewistown on the US 322 corridor that goes between Harrisburg and State College... although I think any of those options are looking pretty good at the moment haha.

All those places have pretty good roads so I would imagine they'll be reasonable by Thursday evening since this is supposed to end by daybreak Thur. If they aren't, well then you probably picked the right place for your snow chase haha. 

CTP mentioned about CSI banding in their discussion, that's the kind of setup you could easily get thundersnow or certainly very intense snow rates out of.

And lastly, I'm still on the fence with these Jan 2016-esque totals that persist on model guidance. Within what looks like pretty much an area wide 10-20", I certainly think at least a thinner stripe of 2'+ is possible anywhere between I-99/220 and I-81 depending on where these intense bands set up. These bands are likely to have better temps aloft in the snow growth layer to boost snow ratios being located in the central part of the state. A 30" is doable, but that would be one heck of an experience to get there since this looks like about a 15-16hr storm. 

 

Lol the NAM is now making me think poconos would be better lol

[KPITSnow]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Here you go all try to follow the lines.  * Note this is not my forecast. 

I’d honestly say to cut back the western expanse if that 8-12 range. I think WPA is going to get a screw job and we will likely end up 2-4 or 3-6. Too much trending East today on models.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

I’d honestly say to cut back the western expanse if that 8-12 range. I think WPA is going to get a screw job and we will likely end up 2-4 or 3-6. Too much trending East today on models.

Not my forecast but I was LOL when seeing it, 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 3k NAM is an I-81 crusher !!!

Harrisburg and Carlisle up through Northeast PA is buried this run!

[TheDreamTraveler]

i'd be fine with a foot of snow even if it doesn't hit us as hard. harrisburg hasn't had a storm in december that was bigger than 13.9 inches since its very tough to get a big storm like this this early in the season. most of the big stuff always happens in january and february

[Newman]

3k NAM crushes Harrisburg. Huge thump in the WAA, fights off any dry slot and sleet being just north enough, and practically is the pivot point when the storm begins to move east.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, canderson said:

CTP has thundersnow in the forecast for Harrisburg!

Wednesday

Snow, mainly after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. 

Wednesday Night

Snow before 1am, then snow and sleet. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 26. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

 

Yes! That would be awesome! Bring it!

[paweather]

My last night of staying up after 1am. CHEERS, everyone. Lets do this. * I should say hopefully not too long that we will be tracking again. 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Newman said:

3k NAM crushes Harrisburg. Huge thump in the WAA, fights off any dry slot and sleet being just north enough, and practically is the pivot point when the storm begins to move east.

Yes, those 3k NAM snow maps that I just posted on the last page drop the hammer on Harrisburg & all of I-81 in PA. The hourly panels were spectacular.

[JTrout]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

My last night of staying up after 1am. CHEERS, everyone. Lets do this. 

Hold on, you are saying you won’t be up all night tomorrow for the actual storm? That’s crazy talk after the past week. 

[paweather]

Just now, JTrout said:

Hold on, you are saying you won’t be up all night tomorrow for the actual storm? That’s crazy talk after the past week. 

I actually did say I would be up all night tomorrow so I guess there is one more night. Thanks for correcting me!

[JTrout]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

I actually did say I would be up all night tomorrow so I guess there is one more night. Thanks for correcting me!

Just checking haha. 

[paweather]

OK another, WOW!

[paweather]

1 minute ago, JTrout said:

Just checking haha. 

all good, my friend. 

[JTrout]

Lancaster show 2 inches to the south and almost 30 at the NW tip. Some gradient on the nam 3k....geez. 30 mile shift and it’s boom or bust for my county if this verified.