paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Has der Ikon ever been right? Lol No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM tucks into western bay. Waiting for panels, but CTP should be liking it. My nerves are about shot tho....lol nice CCB signal as well. starting to see that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Is the Japanese model that ji always loved to post still a thing? That's the JMA, and it's still available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: RGEM tucks into western bay. Waiting for panels, but CTP should be liking it. My nerves are about shot tho....lol nice CCB signal as well. starting to see that again. RGEM is a winner. Yes, some mixing occurs down in the southern counties on this model but it is very limited and back to snow. Similar to 1993? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @42 GFS still loves us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The MA forum is currently a tire fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS will be a crowd pleaser....and somehow i'm in the crowd.... Not sure I'm buying it, but I love the sales pitch.... I dont get the tucked solutions and hope they trend east for happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Look for trends, not perty colors. Pay attention to qpf distribution. 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: @42 GFS still loves us... That is an interesting depiction. I'm not sure that I often snow with a low pressure sitting that location. Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That is an interesting depiction. I'm not sure that I often snow with a low pressure sitting that location. Interesting! Thats why I like it...but dont really know that I agree with it.. CAD is our way to the promise land. Still think from what the nooners are saying, that happy hour wont dissapoint. Just my hunch. K...now gotta get some work done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That GFS run looks weird to me, but not smart enough to know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That is an interesting depiction. I'm not sure that I often snow with a low pressure sitting that location. Interesting! I'm not sure if we'll be smelling the rain or wiping tears. LSV is scarily close on this verbatim...but verbatim....it's a really nice run for all of us. I'd expect voyager to fill in for happy hour as well. Dont worry pal, i still think you are sitting pretty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 k...one more. WRF through end of run still loves us as well. LSV mixes for 5 hrs, but flips back for last couple. I'll sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The low definitely seems too close to have that good of a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 should not even be looking at the long range GFS runs now they are crap.- Euro, NAM and RGEM for the win The GFS shows a donut hole over the LV now- C'mon give me a break. For 4 days the LV has been in the jackpot zone. Trash the GFS in this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm not sure if we'll be smelling the rain or wiping tears. LSV is scarily close on this verbatim...but verbatim....it's a really nice run for all of us. I'd expect voyager to fill in for happy hour as well. Dont worry pal, i still think you are sitting pretty. I hope you're right, but I've seen these things go sideways so many times that I just naturally have a "what can go wrong" mindset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: I hope you're right, but I've seen these things go sideways so many times that I just naturally have a "what can go wrong" mindset. weve all seen sh!t go sideways. Need to start paying attention to hi res meso's. and bye and large, you are fine on most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sweetness: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 These models have been dialed in for days now more than ever. Now it is just time for the event to start. I haven't seen so much consistency in model run after model run at least for the state of PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 CMC loves CTP, but tells me to get tissues ready. Tucked LP is undeniable on nooners. Still scratchin my head tho. In summary of nooners...I have less confidence for mby, but think mag to hazelton and areas around are big winners of the 12 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 33 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Thats why I like it...but dont really know that I agree with it.. CAD is our way to the promise land. Still think from what the nooners are saying, that happy hour wont dissapoint. Just my hunch. K...now gotta get some work done. CAD isn't the problem here nut, it's the mid-level low passes and the surface low. Take a look at the 700mb low that passes over us/to our north. We dry slot and turn to sleet in cases like that. It's inevitable. Plus models have the surface low tucking into freaking NJ now. The strong 1040 HP will do it's dirty work trying to keep the low level cold in place. But the 500mb trying to close off and pull the surface with it is gonna turn this into a Central and Northern PA special. You might be ever-so-slightly in a better place than I am being a bit further west. Might be able to escape the dry slot and sleet a bit longer plus cash in on the backside CCB a bit better. (BTW, I'm in my home location in Berks county, not at Millersville for school currently winter break.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: CMC loves CTP, but tells me to get tissues ready. Tucked LP is undeniable on nooners. Still scratchin my head tho. In summary of nooners...I have less confidence for mby, but think mag to hazelton and areas around are big winners of the 12 runs. I agree to a certain extent, but think we are all winners whether it is 12" or 18" There may be a period down in Lancaster and York counties that flip for a bit, but I can't see it lasting long. EURO for run after run never shown mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Good luck out there-certainly looks based on trends like I-80 corridor and I-81 north of I-80 do very well-essentially an arc from the Catskills to UNV/AOO. Something like a 3/14/17 outcome. If these models are right, could be the first 20"+ event for UNV since 1994? There should be a hellacious band just north of that 700mb low track, deformation and plenty of lift there, along with good ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 <3 Quote Heavy snow bands will take shape during the evening hours on Wednesday. The ECMWF and NAM deterministic models suggest the easterly jet to the north of the intensifying 850mb low may intensify to as strong as 60-70 kts as it moves over eastern PA by 06z Thu. Historically, many of the heaviest snow events in this area have occurred just west of strong easterly wind anomalies, where convergence and frontogenesis forces intense upward motion within cold air. As snow bands move through central PA Wednesday night, localized snow rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour are a reasonable expectation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, paweather said: I agree to a certain extent, but think we are all winners whether it is 12" or 18" There may be a period down in Lancaster and York counties that flip for a bit, but I can't see it lasting long. EURO for run after run never shown mixing issues. Euro will really tip the scales IMO. Parsing over thermal profiles, we are still safe, although SE is marginally so for a few panels. Thats going over the 700's and 850's, so while best forcing may be NW, we may depend on rates prior to any changeover for eastern locals. Were on the edge, but still have a little buffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Euro will really tip the scales IMO. Parsing over thermal profiles, we are still safe, although SE is marginally so for a few panels. Thats going over the 700's and 850's, so while best forcing may be NW, we may depend on rates prior to any changeover for eastern locals. Were on the edge, but still have a little buffer. Things certainly got a little tighter right now down here. All I know is that is going to snow and it will be a winter wonderland for the first time since I can remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: <3 Hoping that verifies. Guess we'll find out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not sure how active @Wmsptwx has been lately but if I was him I'd be getting pumped. Should be a crusher for the I-99 corridor/Rt 220 for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 ukie is ugly when does the west trend stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, paweather said: Things certainly got a little tighter right now down here. All I know is that is going to snow and it will be a winter wonderland for the first time since I can remember it. Yeah complaining about 6 vs 16 is probably not right, but I've been sucked in and see enough to see it in jeopardy. I'm not panicking. If I get a crap ton of sleet on top of 6-10 I'll be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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