paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: @42 LP 50 miles NW of 6z. This is 42: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather said: If your in Shippensburg I am not sure what is slipping away from you. It does appear on the NAM that Lancaster county is at risk to turn to sleet/FRZ rain for a period of time. You are correct. However, the trend north and the band of heaviest snow has moved notably north as well. His concern at this point is valid. (still think his area is in a really good spot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I've been informing management at work since Saturday to expect 6-10" including a significant amount of ice. Admittedly, I was concerned that I was undershooting this until last evening. I feel pretty good about my call right now - even though they've been pushing back and saying that they're hearing that we're getting over 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: You are correct. However, the trend north and the band of heaviest snow has moved notably north as well. His concern at this point is valid. (still think his area is in a really good spot) I think whatever/whoever changes over or mix of snow/sleet/FRZ rain is just for a small period of time based on the track of the low. It will not damper in snow totals all that much unless the model runs today continue to trend north and west further that even true Central PA gets into mixing. Highly doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I think whatever/whoever changes over or mix of snow/sleet/FRZ rain is just for a small period of time based on the track of the low. It will not damper in snow totals all that much unless the model runs today continue to trend north and west further that even true Central PA gets into mixing. Highly doubt that. Yeah, would even be more concerned of dry slotting then the amount of sleet in Lancaster County.I do think 6-10 for Lanco is a good solid call at this time. And most of that with the initial thump.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, paweather said: I think whatever/whoever changes over or mix of snow/sleet/FRZ rain is just for a small period of time based on the track of the low. It will not damper in snow totals all that much unless the model runs today continue to trend north and west further that even true Central PA gets into mixing. Highly doubt that. In fairness, you can see at 45 the "dampening" in my area (Lanco). I looked S and SW of me to see the movement of the R/S line and I'm ok w/ what 12z did. It's first out of the nooner gate, and seemed to stop the westward progression of the LP 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: In fairness, you can see at 45 the "dampening" in my area (Lanco). I looked S and SW of me to see the movement of the R/S line and I'm ok w/ what 12z did. It's first out of the nooner gate, and seemed to stop the westward progression of the LP 6z 12z Agreed good comparison between 6z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Yeah, would even be more concerned of dry slotting then the amount of sleet in Lancaster County. I do think 6-10 for Lanco is a good solid call at this time. And most of that with the initial thump. . verbatim, no dry slot on 12k. Scratch that off "our" worry list. LP shift NE seemed to save us. I liked the subtle increase of CAD and hope that in the next couple runs we continue to see the HP in Quebec do its thingy to the LSV thermal profiles. Track really was nice, so I'm happy w/ that (and am cool w/ sleet in the mix - just not too much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: verbatim, no dry slot on 12k. Scratch that off "our" worry list. LP shift NE seemed to save us. I liked the subtle increase of CAD and hope that in the next couple runs we continue to see the HP in Quebec do its thingy to the LSV thermal profiles. Track really was nice, so I'm happy w/ that (and am cool w/ sleet in the mix - just not too much). At the very least on the sleet changeover per model trends if it were to happen, very minimal and then back to all snow. We will see what the rest of the day brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: Hey all. I’m chasing this storm up from Philly. I don’t want to drive more than 3 hours tops. I was thinking either poconos, but also Williamsport or around the Harrisburg region. Any spots you’d recommend based on current data? I’m a little worried in E PA about the deformation zone lifting farther N than anticipated, but that’d still be better for c pa. Can’t decide! I’d be leaving early tomorrow morning so still time to get some model runs in. Lewistown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 i hope you guys like what i'm giving you for Christmas. You can open your gift Thursday Morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 verbatim, no dry slot on 12k. Scratch that off "our" worry list. LP shift NE seemed to save us. I liked the subtle increase of CAD and hope that in the next couple runs we continue to see the HP in Quebec do its thingy to the LSV thermal profiles. Track really was nice, so I'm happy w/ that (and am cool w/ sleet in the mix - just not too much). Hope your right. HRRR was showing a nasty dry slot, but again, not sure model is in its range yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i hope you guys like what i'm giving you for Christmas. You can open your gift Thursday Morning. Mine's broken. I hope you kept the receipt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Speaking of dry slots, remember during the 2016 blizzard how that dry slot was racing N-NW out of eastern and central MD right towards us? (Lanco) The dry slot literally reached the M/D line JUST as the pivot took over and saved us. There were areas in NE MD that saw 12" less than we did all because they got dry slotted. On the HRRR, it gets VERY close tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 For those worried about the westward jump of qpf max, this should calm ones nerves a bit. It's getting close enough to start adding weight to meso's. imo 6z 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i hope you guys like what i'm giving you for Christmas. You can open your gift Thursday Morning. Thanks for the Snowblower Sauss! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'm wondering if Lake Raystown would be the spot to see this go down at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Speaking of dry slots, remember during the 2016 blizzard how that dry slot was racing N-NW out of eastern and central MD right towards us? (Lanco) The dry slot literally reached the M/D line JUST as the pivot took over and saved us. There were areas in NE MD that saw 12" less than we did all because they got dry slotted. On the HRRR, it gets VERY close tomorrow evening. Go loop the 3k and you'll see a similar presentation. We get decent pivot lovin in eastern pa including LSV on 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I'm wondering if Lake Raystown would be the spot to see this go down at this point. I don't think you would have to travel to see it go down at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather said: I don't think you would have to travel to see it go down at this point. That was more for the world travelers coming in from Hagerstown and Havre de Grace and Nick Foles' house than anything. Although, getting back out on the dam toward Ridenhour Overlook (for anyone whose been to the lake before) would be an insane view. You'd be stuck there until March, though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Go loop the 3k and you'll see a similar presentation. We get decent pivot lovin in eastern pa including LSV on 3k. I had just finished watching when I saw this post. You are correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I just took a half day personal day tomorrow afternoon - we both are working from home indefinitely but now I won't feel guilty starting out the window all day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Why not? Post which ever model gives us the most snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, paweather said: Why not? But DOOONNNT look at the panels that follow....YUUKK. This one will push people to the ledge. Just assume the germans are messing w/ our subforum. ITS UGLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Post which ever model gives us the most snow That's the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Is the Japanese model that ji always loved to post still a thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: But DOOONNNT look at the panels that follow....YUUKK. This one will push people to the ledge. Just assume the germans are messing w/ our subforum. ITS UGLY. It is the ICON, had to do it just once! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather said: It is the ICON, had to do it just once! ICON says drive to central NYS for jackspot. I hope the home team saves us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Has der Ikon ever been right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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