Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

[2001kx]

Nice..

[pawatch]

Wow...Early Merry Christmas 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the EPS low track with member locations. The mean is in a good spot despite some wild card way west & east solutions. The best part is that the lows head east once reaching near Delaware.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 0z EPS snow map, which these ensemble maps are based on just 10-1 ratios.

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

54 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the 0z Euro Kuchera ratio map

If this north shift were to come true, CTP would have to do some major adjustments to their headlines.   The north trend was a little too much for areas down this way.  

[pasnownut]

NAM shows the western expanse as well  tucks LP into Chesapeake . I still approve. 

[WmsptWx]

Took me a few minutes to figure out what FHS meant lol. This should be good. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

WPC has a precip max of 2 to 2.5” right through us lsv folks.   I can’t recall that much forecasted, even in our big storms of the past.  I do think there’s going to be someone in PA with a 36” total.  

[mahantango#1]

Will there be wind with this in the Susquehanna Valley, that drifting will be a problem?

[Cashtown_Coop]

10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Will there be wind with this in the Susquehanna Valley, that drifting will be a problem?

CTP briefing page has winds 20-30 mph at the peak 

[2001kx]

DT's new map

 

[mahantango#1]

I guess that will be a problem, hopefully not hours of 30+ wind.

[Cashtown_Coop]

2 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

DT's new map

 

Good looking map.  If those Wpc qpf numbers come to fruition, you could put a band of 20-36” somewhere in there

[KPITSnow]

2 minutes ago, FHS said:

unlike the mob and there mets I will be out in it the whole fing time feeling the storms ions so no worrys other than pics .  I got over 30 different accounts ready to go. You Sould never fuk with the autistic . As always with me it can be fun or it can be painfull . No one wants a painfull HECS but I will not be pushed around by MFERS that live 100 miles away or 1 for that matter in real world or this one so be warned and lets have fun . I said i was here for good and i dont fukn lie.   See you all soon and good luck to all but three of you male chicken suckers .

What the hell is this?

[WmsptWx]

3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

What the hell is this?

This is Flatheadsickness. He takes a different approach to weather lol

[2001kx]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

This is Flatheadsickness. He takes a different approach to weather lol

Thats what i was thinking as well but im lost as to whats going on?

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z Euro brings the goods once again to CTP.

It shows some mixing in York & Lancaster at the height of the storm, but they go back to heavy snow once the low makes the turn to the east towards the Delaware & NJ coast.

Just as @Cashtown_Coop said, someone in here could get over 20 inches with this storm!

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are the 6z Euro snow maps.

 

[2001kx]

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are the 6z Euro snow maps.

 

What I wouldn't do for that to verify.

[Burghblizz]

36 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

DT's new map

 

He has always been a little lazy the further he got from I95. Doesn’t even begin to address the forecast nuances

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

Took me a few minutes to figure out what FHS meant lol. This should be good. 

NOW I REMEMBER.
 

Grabs beer n popcorn...................

 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Great discussion this morning from CTP.

“.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A major winter storm will impact central PA Wed afternoon
through Early Thu morning, with snow accumulations of 1-2 feet
expected, and snow rates as high as 2-4 inches per hour Wed
night.

Snow will move into the southern tier by late morning and then
overspread the rest of central PA through the afternoon. Snow
will start off light but quickly become moderate in intensity,
as the primary low moving into the Ohio Valley forces large
scale WAA and isentropic ascent over the cold air associated
with a nearly 1040mb high pressure system in southern Quebec.
This setup has all the hallmarks of a textbook Northeast snow
storm, with dewpoints in central PA starting in the low teens
Wed morning and a clear signal for cold air damming keeping a
large wedge of cold air at low levels.

Heavy snow bands will take shape during the evening hours on
Wednesday. The ECMWF and NAM deterministic models suggest the
easterly jet to the north of the intensifying 850mb low may
intensify to as strong as 60-70 kts as it moves over eastern PA
by 06z Thu. Historically, many of the heaviest snow events in
this area have occurred just west of strong easterly wind
anomalies, where convergence and frontogenesis forces intense
upward motion within cold air. As snow bands move through
central PA Wednesday night, localized snow rates of 2 to 4
inches per hour are a reasonable expectation.

Overall, a consensus/mean of all deterministic and ensemble
models has been remarkably consistent in painting the stripe of
heaviest snow along an axis from south central PA northeastward
into interior New England. We bumped this area up into the
18-24 inch range in our latest grid update. However, individual
deterministic models continue to vary on the exact placement of
the heaviest snow. It is certainly possible that the location
of the axis of heaviest snow may be realized farther
north/west... closer to the I-80/I-99 corridor... similar to
what the 00z ECMWF deterministic run suggested. Snow to liquid
ratio (SLR) may also be conservative here, as the National Blend
of Models suggests a SLR near 11, but other techniques suggest
the SLR may be as high as 15:1 along and north of Interstate 80.
If this is the case, and QPF ends up being as high as the 00z
ECMWF suggests, max totals in excess of 20 inches could be
realized in the State College area. On the other hand, the "bust
potential" in the Lower Susq (esp. S of Harrisburg) might be
that less snow ends up falling due to the presence of a nearby
dry slot, or warm nose of above freezing temperatures that
changes the snow over to sleet for a period early Wed night. The
3km NAM and HRRR have hinted at these "flies in the ointment"
in recent runs. For now, these are still just things to consider
as worst case/best case scenarios. We will continue to monitor
trends closely, but overall confidence remains high for 1-2 feet
of snow across a large portion of central PA.

The storm will be relatively quick moving, with most places
seeing precip for 18-24 hours. Nonetheless, with cold
temperatures in place, good SLRs, and very strong frontogenesis,
this should end up being the most significant snowstorm for
most of the area since November 2018... and for some areas,
perhaps one of the heaviest snow events in the past 5+ years. It
also may rival some of the record 1-day and 2-day December snow
totals. For reference, the December 2-day record snowfall at
Harrisburg is 13.9 inches, set in 1961.“

 

[pasnownut]

Just now, Burghblizz said:

He has always been a little lazy the further he got from I95. Doesn’t even begin to address the forecast nuances

Sorry but thats been a rub of mine w/ DT.  He makes like 4 updates to every storm and bashes the beegeezus outta anyone that doesnt see what he sees.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the latest CTP expected snow map

[pasnownut]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the latest CTP expected snow map

I went UP from 16" to 18.  I'm huggin that map for all its worth.  

[Cashtown_Coop]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the latest CTP expected snow map

I’d expect all the ranges to shift north unless the 12z runs shift south.  

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’d expect all the ranges to shift north unless the 12z runs shift south.  

While major models have been locked in from way out, the "normal" adjustments closer to game time will make a rather large difference for some of us (ME).

I've been trying to temper expectations especially since last night showed the more tucked solutions gaining traction.  The dryslot shown at 0z NAM launched my first warning shot.  Hoping for that slight southern/eastern tick today, as true CTP is locked in for a doozy.  I need a slight shift E to keep LSV in the game and not on the bench.   

[pasnownut]

Did Mag find the bottom of the bottle last night.....??

Dude, this is your storm......come sit at the control tower and bring this thing in. 

Your most deserving.

[Heisy]

Hey all. I’m chasing this storm up from Philly. I don’t want to drive more than 3 hours tops. I was thinking either poconos, but also Williamsport or around the Harrisburg region. Any spots you’d recommend based on current data? I’m a little worried in E PA about the deformation zone lifting farther N than anticipated, but that’d still be better for c pa. Can’t decide! I’d be leaving early  tomorrow morning so still time to get some model runs in.

[Cashtown_Coop]

5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Hey all. I’m chasing this storm up from Philly. I don’t want to drive more than 3 hours tops. I was thinking either poconos, but also Williamsport or around the Harrisburg region. Any spots you’d recommend based on current data? I’m a little worried in E PA about the deformation zone lifting farther N than anticipated, but that’d still be better for c pa. Can’t decide! I’d be leaving early  tomorrow morning so still time to get some model runs in.

Check back after the 12z runs lol.   Seriously to cherry pick an area I’d go with Schuylkill County somewhere with elevation