JTrout Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not sure how you guys feel about the ABC27 mets but they almost have the whole state in 14-20. I feel like they are usually more conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, basehore said: nws first call expected totals.... that would easily crush the 13.9 inch record for december in harrisburg. geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS 18z Kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It’s frankly weird to see CTP so bullish. They have been for days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is an image I hope we see more of in 2021. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, canderson said: It’s frankly weird to see CTP so bullish. They have been for days. And if they bust on this, they'll never hoist an advisory ever again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Gosh still snowing at 7am Thursday on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 What is this with NWS, and snow showers? Are we just getting showers with snow or snow heavy at times. Snow showers, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. East wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night Snow showers before 3am, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. North wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow showers and freezing rain before 7am, then a slight chance of snow showers between 7am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 While 18z will make me sleep better my brethren to the NW wouldn’t like. LP tucked a bit closer and feel the qpf shield would be more expansive to the NW. Not sure I’m buyin what it’s selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, paweather said: What is this with NWS, and snow showers? Are we just getting showers with snow or snow heavy at times. Snow showers, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. East wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night Snow showers before 3am, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. North wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow showers and freezing rain before 7am, then a slight chance of snow showers between 7am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Mine's almost the same. No precip amounts, though... Wednesday Snow showers, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday A chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 While 18z will make me sleep better my brethren to the NW wouldn’t like. LP tucked a bit closer and feel the qpf shield would be more expansive to the NW. Not sure I’m buyin what it’s selling. Wait for Euro I would say. That’s just my feeling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18z RGEM Kuchera gives me 36 inches. Can I lock it in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, paweather said: What is this with NWS, and snow showers? Are we just getting showers with snow or snow heavy at times. Snow showers, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. East wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night Snow showers before 3am, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. North wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow showers and freezing rain before 7am, then a slight chance of snow showers between 7am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. I really hate the term snow showers, especially in a storm that is expected to be steady heavy snow. It doesn't even make sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 CTP has my grid getting freezing rain, da hell? Wednesday Snow showers, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. East wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night Snow showers before 5am, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow showers and freezing rain before 7am, then a slight chance of snow showers between 7am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, canderson said: CTP has my grid getting freezing rain, da hell? Wednesday Snow showers, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. East wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night Snow showers before 5am, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow showers and freezing rain before 7am, then a slight chance of snow showers between 7am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. It looks worse than it is. The main precip for you and me is modeled to be winding down substantially by 3-4am. When the snow gets really light there sometimes can be freezing rain/drizzle mixed in. I would say 99% of the entire event is all snow for both of us. I also have no idea why they are calling heavy snow, snow showers. I can almost guarantee you that once they issue the winter storm warning tomorrow the verbiage will have just become "snow". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, JTrout said: Not sure how you guys feel about the ABC27 mets but they almost have the whole state in 14-20. I feel like they are usually more conservative. Yes, usually they are very conservative, so this is bold for them 2 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The 18z GEFS looks to be holding steady! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Newman said: This is also very bold for at least the CTP portion of this map! @sauss06 and I are in 18-24 on this map! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 hours ago, paweather said: Congrats! those in DT Bullseye. I'm not sure if I like it or not. In DT we trust ! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: In DT we trust ! thats copy n paste from the Euro.....so in the Euro HE trusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This is also very bold for at least the CTP portion of this map! @sauss06 and I are in 18-24 on this map! I just hate that right turn the 18-24 contour takes right when it gets to Schuylkill County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, canderson said: It’s frankly weird to see CTP so bullish. They have been for days. A system originating from the Gulf states developing a coastal low tracking up the coastline near or on the Delmarva into the teeth of a strong Canadian high are what C-PA snowstorms are made of. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is also very bold for at least the CTP portion of this map! [mention=1291]sauss06[/mention] and I are in 18-24 on this map!Lebanon county bullseye Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: A system originating from the Gulf states developing a coastal low tracking up the coastline near or on the Delmarva into the teeth of a strong Canadian high are what C-PA snowstorms are made of. So this would be a true Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: So this would be a true Miller A? Hmm it's still showing some surface reflection into the OH Valley on the models, so I don't know if it'd be a clear cut miller A if we're being technical. But with the coastal getting going early and tracking where it needs to for this area on pretty much all models now.. it might as well be one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Hmm it's still showing some surface reflection into the OH Valley on the models, so I don't know if it'd be a clear cut miller A if we're being technical. But with the coastal getting going early and tracking where it needs to for this area on pretty much all models now.. it might as well be one. Think it’s technically a Miller B, but the good one for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Think it’s technically a Miller B, but the good one for us. . I just like the fact there are 3 lows in play for this. Primary, Secondary, and a Gulf low. With a big H in Canada. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Euro held serve!!Almost there boys and girls!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Euro held serve!! Almost there boys and girls!! . 2” qpf. Man this has the potential to be something special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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