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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

NAM just made a nice step in the right direction.  Waiting for the taboo snow maps, but I'm liking it...alot.

Eh not really, track did shift SE a bit coming up the coast but still a lot of mix in the LSV and it really shut off the precip fast once the low's gettin by us. 

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

They will be the "infamous" NAM insane maps. 

ahh....f it.  its just for fun.  If you toggle through 12z vs 18z a notable SE adjustment.  Obviously we take w/ a large dose of caution, but all in all, it puts us all in a warning wide event w/ MAG to voyager being jackspots.  

namconus_asnow_neus_22.png

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Eh not really, track did shift SE a bit coming up the coast but still a lot of mix in the LSV and it really shut off the precip fast once the low's gettin by us. 

12z

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45.png

 

18z

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_43.png

 

18z less tucked in was my point.  It was a step better for mby (speaking solely on the NAM output).  Thats all I'm saying.  Snow map was less widespread, and a bit SE of 12z, but I guess I'm more worried about me.  

 

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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

12z

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45.png

 

18z

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_43.png

 

18z less tucked in was my point.  It was a step better for mby (speaking solely on the NAM output).  Thats all I'm saying.  Snow map was less widespread, and a bit SE of 12z, but I guess I'm more worried about me.  

 

Well looking at it with Weatherbell's map something was up with the model run itself on there. Def the current 18z run but it there was some of the precip shield that cut out on a couple frames, really weird.. and it's not totaling snow right either.

Heres what it did hr 57 vs hr 63 frames for example

57:

nam-218-all-east-instant_ptype_3hr-8174000.thumb.png.2c458e65a6a58f48731063783e1fa0b3.png

 

63

nam-218-all-east-instant_ptype_3hr-8195600.thumb.png.093b0861fdca2fbc0963343101f1fa52.png

 

So there's definitely something up there, I know the TT maps can really exaggerate snow totals near the mix areas but it was like looking at a completely different model run lol. 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well looking at it with Weatherbell's map something was up with the model run itself on there. Def the current 18z run but it there was some of the precip shield that cut out on a couple frames, really weird.. and it's not totaling snow right either.

Heres what it did hr 57 vs hr 63 frames for example

57:

nam-218-all-east-instant_ptype_3hr-8174000.thumb.png.2c458e65a6a58f48731063783e1fa0b3.png

 

63

nam-218-all-east-instant_ptype_3hr-8195600.thumb.png.093b0861fdca2fbc0963343101f1fa52.png

 

So there's definitely something up there, I know the TT maps can really exaggerate snow totals near the mix areas but it was like looking at a completely different model run lol. 

all good.  Check out thermal profile i just posted, you can see at 700 the column/best lift  is SE.  

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

all good.  Check out thermal profile i just posted, you can see at 700 the column/best lift  is SE.  

Yea, my bad. it's starting to pull the heavy snow swath back towards where general consensus of the other guidance has it. Seriously though, did anyone else with WeatherBell have a screwed up 18z NAM like I did?

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea, my bad. it's starting to pull the heavy snow swath back towards where general consensus of the other guidance has it. Seriously though, did anyone else with WeatherBell have a screwed up 18z NAM like I did?

Blame Bastardi....everyone else does.  Still love that guy.

 

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3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea, my bad. it's starting to pull the heavy snow swath back towards where general consensus of the other guidance has it. Seriously though, did anyone else with WeatherBell have a screwed up 18z NAM like I did?

Yes I noticed that and quickly went back to TT. That was weird. 

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9 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

Insane 3k run image.thumb.png.33616067a2110bf079d547fc19e6c2b9.png

look at se lanco 4-6'' dot and nw side 20+

can anyone understand why I'm a wee bit on edge??

and of course I know this likely needs smoothed out a bit, but no doubt 30-40 miles is the difference between heaven and heartbreak.
 

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18 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll stop posting maps, but 850s' also follow suite to 700's and at 54 we lose them, but bt 57 were all in the game and entire state is cold enough for snow. I'll personally take it and be giddy, cause we'd ALL be giddy together.   

Yeah, that might be as good as we can get, and it might end up being the most realistic as well. Seems to match up pretty well to a lot of red tagger's thinking. 

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

look at se lanco 4-6'' dot and nw side 20+

can anyone understand why I'm a wee bit on edge??
 

I feel a little better about being in the very northwestern tip of of Lancaster. I still like our spot better then western counties. We will be in the heavy precip one way or the other...thump/sleet/thump would be fine. Still nervous for sure though. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah, that might be as good as we can get, and it might end up being the most realistic as well. Seems to match up pretty well to a lot of red tagger's thinking. 

Its rather normal for us to mix in big events.  easterly fetch gets us most times.  We expect it....but whenever the possibility of minimizing it is in play.....yeah we grab it w/ both hands and hug the shit out of whatever model looks best......see what i did there?  Man I'm killin it today.

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