WmsptWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 56 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Nope. Unfortunately i drink Miller lite now ****ing amateur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Congrats! those in DT Bullseye. I'm not sure if I like it or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: NAM just made a nice step in the right direction. Waiting for the taboo snow maps, but I'm liking it...alot. Eh not really, track did shift SE a bit coming up the coast but still a lot of mix in the LSV and it really shut off the precip fast once the low's gettin by us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, paweather said: They will be the "infamous" NAM insane maps. ahh....f it. its just for fun. If you toggle through 12z vs 18z a notable SE adjustment. Obviously we take w/ a large dose of caution, but all in all, it puts us all in a warning wide event w/ MAG to voyager being jackspots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: ahh....f it. its just for fun. If you toggle through 12z vs 18z a notable SE adjustment. Obviously we take w/ a large dose of caution, but all in all, it puts us all in a warning wide event w/ MAG to voyager being jackspots. Mag special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Image not coming throughSent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Eh not really, track did shift SE a bit coming up the coast but still a lot of mix in the LSV and it really shut off the precip fast once the low's gettin by us. 12z 18z 18z less tucked in was my point. It was a step better for mby (speaking solely on the NAM output). Thats all I'm saying. Snow map was less widespread, and a bit SE of 12z, but I guess I'm more worried about me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 12z 18z 18z less tucked in was my point. It was a step better for mby (speaking solely on the NAM output). Thats all I'm saying. Snow map was less widespread, and a bit SE of 12z, but I guess I'm more worried about me. Well looking at it with Weatherbell's map something was up with the model run itself on there. Def the current 18z run but it there was some of the precip shield that cut out on a couple frames, really weird.. and it's not totaling snow right either. Heres what it did hr 57 vs hr 63 frames for example 57: 63 So there's definitely something up there, I know the TT maps can really exaggerate snow totals near the mix areas but it was like looking at a completely different model run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 and for further comparison 12z 18z to my eyes, its a step better but maybe i need glasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well looking at it with Weatherbell's map something was up with the model run itself on there. Def the current 18z run but it there was some of the precip shield that cut out on a couple frames, really weird.. and it's not totaling snow right either. Heres what it did hr 57 vs hr 63 frames for example 57: 63 So there's definitely something up there, I know the TT maps can really exaggerate snow totals near the mix areas but it was like looking at a completely different model run lol. all good. Check out thermal profile i just posted, you can see at 700 the column/best lift is SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: all good. Check out thermal profile i just posted, you can see at 700 the column/best lift is SE. Yea, my bad. it's starting to pull the heavy snow swath back towards where general consensus of the other guidance has it. Seriously though, did anyone else with WeatherBell have a screwed up 18z NAM like I did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Insane 3k run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I'll stop posting maps, but 850s' also follow suite to 700's and at 54 we lose them, but bt 57 were all in the game and entire state is cold enough for snow. I'll personally take it and be giddy, cause we'd ALL be giddy together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Yea, my bad. it's starting to pull the heavy snow swath back towards where general consensus of the other guidance has it. Seriously though, did anyone else with WeatherBell have a screwed up 18z NAM like I did? Blame Bastardi....everyone else does. Still love that guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea, my bad. it's starting to pull the heavy snow swath back towards where general consensus of the other guidance has it. Seriously though, did anyone else with WeatherBell have a screwed up 18z NAM like I did? Yes I noticed that and quickly went back to TT. That was weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: Blame Bastardi....everyone else does. Still love that guy. Lol, I was using the 12k NAM since some of this event is still outside 60hrs. 3k NAM is definitely NOT acting up haha, geesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Blame Bastardi....everyone else does. Still love that guy. "Enjoy the weather, it is the only weather we got" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, MAG5035 said: Lol, I was using the 12k NAM since some of this event is still outside 60hrs. 3k NAM is definitely NOT acting up haha, geesh. 3k still wants some skin in da game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Insane 3k run look at se lanco 4-6'' dot and nw side 20+ can anyone understand why I'm a wee bit on edge?? and of course I know this likely needs smoothed out a bit, but no doubt 30-40 miles is the difference between heaven and heartbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NWS New graphic map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'll stop posting maps, but 850s' also follow suite to 700's and at 54 we lose them, but bt 57 were all in the game and entire state is cold enough for snow. I'll personally take it and be giddy, cause we'd ALL be giddy together. Yeah, that might be as good as we can get, and it might end up being the most realistic as well. Seems to match up pretty well to a lot of red tagger's thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: look at se lanco 4-6'' dot and nw side 20+ can anyone understand why I'm a wee bit on edge?? I feel a little better about being in the very northwestern tip of of Lancaster. I still like our spot better then western counties. We will be in the heavy precip one way or the other...thump/sleet/thump would be fine. Still nervous for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I feel a little better about being in the very northwestern tip of of Lancaster. I still like our spot better then western counties. We will be in the heavy precip one way or the other...thump/sleet/thump would be fine. Still nervous for sure though. Could be huge difference from SE to NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Horst says 6 to 12 for Lancaster City, with sleet likely. 12 to 18 Harrisburg, N&W, all snow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yeah, that might be as good as we can get, and it might end up being the most realistic as well. Seems to match up pretty well to a lot of red tagger's thinking. Its rather normal for us to mix in big events. easterly fetch gets us most times. We expect it....but whenever the possibility of minimizing it is in play.....yeah we grab it w/ both hands and hug the shit out of whatever model looks best......see what i did there? Man I'm killin it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Horst says 6 to 12 for Lancaster City, with sleet likely. 12 to 18 Harrisburg, N&W, all snow. . piss...... meet cheerios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: piss...... meet cheerios. Time to switch to Chex, fren. It soaks up the piss in each square. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 nws first call expected totals.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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