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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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showmethesnow
showmethesnow

Not sure about everyone else but what I am seeing on the models recently as we head into prime climo has me stoked for our snow chances from the mid-Atlantic up into the NE. Below is a 5 day mean from

AllWeather
AllWeather

This will be my first winter storm in 8 years where I don’t have to worry about a “viewing area” forecast. I get to enjoy the storm IMBY with my family.  

Cashtown_Coop
Cashtown_Coop

Hey everyone, quick idea.   If things keep looking like snow, I think it would be fun to have a snow contest for the area.  Pick something like 5 sites and see who can guess the total snowfall for tho

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JTrout

JTrout

Posted
Posted

 

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

If I still worked there I could tell you. I actually was supposed to work that shift but called my boss to tell him that morning there was already 5" of snow on the ground lol. Next day couldnt go in either because they couldnt plow the streets. Took them 2 days to get the city back to normal, lancaster that is and they got more NW of us.

 

I would be impressed if we see more than 12:1 during the height of the storm for areas around harrisburg. Most should see the average 10:1 and then maybe getting better as the colder air continues to filter in. I say maybe 14:1 on the outskirts to help with totals otherwise more than that is not impossible but probably unlikely.

Thanks, my follow up was going to be if someone had a semi educated guess with this storm specifically? 

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so_whats_happening

so_whats_happening

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, JTrout said:

 

Thanks, my follow up was going to be if someone had a semi educated guess with this storm specifically? 

I would like to take a better look at the skew T's for this but wanna wait until maybe 00z tonight to see if everything is going to hold. So far the 12z runs have held steady and come more in line with each other.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The more elevation dependent HRRR ended up being correct over the other ambitious guidance this morning. Probably could call it a T here, but nothing measurable fell. Looks like it stuck from about 1800’ or so up.

Looking NE

FDDBCC29-C5D5-4142-B582-2C2CE9542AB8.thumb.jpeg.2fcd4816e200b25e508f6f349358879e.jpeg

Good thing we might just scrounge up a bit of snow Wednesday lol. Did anyone actually see much this morning? 

Finished with .7" here. Had accumulation on all surfaces except the roads. Season total now squared up at 1"!

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2001kx

2001kx

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Posted
32 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The more elevation dependent HRRR ended up being correct over the other ambitious guidance this morning. Probably could call it a T here, but nothing measurable fell. Looks like it stuck from about 1800’ or so up.

Looking NE

FDDBCC29-C5D5-4142-B582-2C2CE9542AB8.thumb.jpeg.2fcd4816e200b25e508f6f349358879e.jpeg

Good thing we might just scrounge up a bit of snow Wednesday lol. Did anyone actually see much this morning? 

A slushy inch here as well but long gone now.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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39 minutes ago, canderson said:

Just curious - what type of storm system would it take to get the entire state into warning criteria snow? Is it even possible for the far eastern zones and the far west/Erie to get clobbered by the same event? 

Yea this is where we have to be careful. It's definitely possible with this event in terms of having a widespread area of 6"+ like that. Again the big question for this subforum in particular is not really whether all of us see decent snow totals but where the swath of heavy to excessive snow is, and how expansive... with the secondary question being how much if any mixing gets into York/Lancaster counties. I tend to think any swath of widespread 14-18"+ amounts may be more focused than the broad swath the Euro is presenting, with the majority of the rest of us NW to 2001kx in Clearfield in the 6-12" range. Models are still kind of up in the air about that. Canadian is still the tightest of the bunch and has the excessive snow swath only really in the LSV from H-burg and SE out to Allentown and really hurts the folks back this way in JST/AOO/UNV taking away the bigger event and beyond in western PA. Canadian ensemble has the swath somewhere in between the GEFS and Euro EPS though. NAM is way NW with the mixing line and heavy snow swath (probably too much so). GFS does okay, its starting to hug the coast a bit more but still has a more outside track on approach. Euro is pretty far inside, actually inside the Chesapeake Bay across the Delmarva to Delaware Bay with it's low on the way up the coast. It's actually pretty much what the NAM did track wise, except the NAM was much warmer thermally. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted

 

6 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

This will be my first winter storm in 8 years where I don’t have to worry about a “viewing area” forecast. I get to enjoy the storm IMBY with my family.  

Enjoy.  You surely deserve to be on the fun side of it for a change.

Hang out w/ us.  We'll make it fun/interesting for sure.  Plus you can keep some of us whackjobs in line.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea this is where we have to be careful. It's definitely possible with this event in terms of having a widespread area of 6"+ like that. Again the big question for this subforum in particular is not really whether all of us see decent snow totals but where the swath of heavy to excessive snow is, and how expansive... with the secondary question being how much if any mixing gets into York/Lancaster counties. I tend to think any swath of widespread 14-18"+ amounts may be more focused than the broad swath the Euro is presenting, with the majority of the rest of us NW to 2001kx in Clearfield in the 6-12" range. Models are still kind of up in the air about that. Canadian is still the tightest of the bunch and has the excessive snow swath only really in the LSV from H-burg and SE out to Allentown and really hurts the folks back this way in JST/AOO/UNV taking away the bigger event and beyond in western PA. Canadian ensemble has the swath somewhere in between the GEFS and Euro EPS though. NAM is way NW with the mixing line and heavy snow swath (probably too much so). GFS does okay, its starting to hug the coast a bit more but still has a more outside track on approach. Euro is pretty far inside, actually inside the Chesapeake Bay across the Delmarva to Delaware Bay with it's low on the way up the coast. It's actually pretty much what the NAM did track wise, except the NAM was much warmer thermally. 

and if I might add to it, to put into simpler terms, its a blend between best thermals (best snow growth is aoa -10 isotherm)....BUT....you also need best lift/qpf to help achieve, so just because you have one, doesn't mean you have the other, but its the closest point/axis between the 2 that you likely see the best totals. 

Mag/taggers/anyone feel free to tweak my statement if needed.

 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It sucks. No sense saying anything other than what it is. I try and appease myself by understanding that there are storms where I get decent snow while Mag and others get cirrus. Yeah, it sounds good now, but tomorrow afternoon when I'm pinging or ZR and others are 1/4 mile vis in +SN, it doesn't feel so good then.

For what it's worth, @MillvilleWxwho is a great met that posts in here from time to time, thinks that the jackpot might end up in the hills of York county between York and Harrisburg, which would seem to better scenario for us mixy folks in the SE part of the region. 

 

5 hours ago, sauss06 said:

I always listen when he speaks. Good dude.

 

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't "follow" him, but I read his posts all the time. Tremendous amount of respect for him. He's honking loudly for the 15/81 corridor. 

 

6 hours ago, pasnownut said:

He's a great met and I miss his posting.  You follow him on twit?

Boy if he's right, I've no complaints about what we get in Lanco.

Seeing the NWS 12'' probs and Carlisle at 71% is pretty stout and something rare to a weather weenies eyeball around here.  Just think about that.  Hell, I'm at 54% and giddy about it.  

Hey y'all! Before I head back to bed, since I'm in the middle of a stretch of mid shifts, I want to say thank you for all the great comments. You guys were my first home in the forum when I lived at Millersville. My roots are in Baltimore area and the Mid Atlantic in general, but my posting didn't truly begin until I was at school. I miss you all and I am working hard at the NWS to try and set myself up to move back east to either Sterling, State College, or Mount Holly (And perhaps Boston if the opportunity arises). I think PA is the winner for this one and several of you in the forum will see 10-20" with lolli's to 2' in the sub. I wouldn't even rule out a 24-28" for some lucky SOB lol.

I still love the US15 to 81 corridor with a max generally positioned over the York Hills in the northern tier of the county up to central PA for areas south of State College. That's where I think the best 7H frontogen will be located for an extended period when the deformation axis develops Wednesday night into Thursday AM. Look for the pivot! I'll check in every now and then during the storm. Hope everyone is healthy and ready for some snow :) 

5 hours ago, JTrout said:

What is his twitter handle? I always like finding good guys to follow. 

xMDxSon is my twitter handle. It's also my XBL gamertag since I first created the account years and years ago for gaming news. If anyone wants to play some COD sometime, send me a PM!

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Updates watch text from CTP:

Quote 

PAZ036-057-059-063>066-142145-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0001.201216T1500Z-201217T1500Z/
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0017.201214T1100Z-201214T2100Z/
Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Chambersburg, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
444 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, wet snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations ranging from a coating to 1 inch in the
  valleys, to as much as 3 inches in the higher terrain. For the
  Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible with snow accumulations
  in excess of 12 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 4 PM EST this
  afternoon. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Wednesday morning
  through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Light snow accumulations this morning will result in
  slippery conditions on untreated roads. Heavy snow on Wednesday
  may make travel difficult to impossible, particularly for the
  Wednesday evening commute and Wednesday night.

 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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36 minutes ago, JTrout said:

For prospective, obviously a completely different storm, colder, higher ratios etc. I just heard somewhere(maybe posted here) that the Jan 2016 storm produced the 30" at MDT with less then 2" of QPf.  Is that true? Anyone really good at remembering ratios from specific storms? 

 

34 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

if thats the case, you'd need to be at 18:1 kinda ratios.  While not impossible, thats cold powder kinda stuff.  

Yea there were definitely elevated ratios there and in that general band of the LSV that saw those 30+ totals. Jan 2016 was a colder system but if you have a good snow column with no real warm nose in it (enough to affect the snowflake structure) and any typical surface temps cold enough for snow to accumulate well... the thing that matters more for ratios is where in the column the lift is occurring and what the temperatures are at that particular layer. For this, the better ratios will probably be where the best lift is at the 700mb level (and somewhat above) and where 850mb temps don't flirt with 0ºC. 

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