pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12z stays close to what we've been seeing. Its a forum wide 6-12+ event. Couple more runs and I'm going to be able to breathe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Canadian is a Nut crushing special. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Canadian is a Nut crushing special. Sounds painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, anotherman said: Sounds painful. If Nut is in pain looking at that map, then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: If Nut is in pain looking at that map, then yes. I'm certainly not in pain looking at that. Can we celebrate yet? I'm still dreading the dreaded westward shift with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Canadian is a Nut crushing special. It certainly is a kick in the nuts for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, anotherman said: I'm certainly not in pain looking at that. Can we celebrate yet? I'm still dreading the dreaded westward shift with the low. I'm not celebrating anything other than the excitement of having something to track. I have the same concerns that you do, and they won't be alleviated until the snow is falling and piling. We've missed on too many "can't miss" storms in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I'm not celebrating anything other than the excitement of having something to track. I have the same concerns that you do, and they won't be alleviated until the snow is falling and piling. We've missed on too many "can't miss" storms in the past. I hear you. MA is melting down, that's for sure. Wouldn't take much for us to be next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: I'm certainly not in pain looking at that. Can we celebrate yet? I'm still dreading the dreaded westward shift with the low. A westward shift would possibly put me in the purple 24-28 inch contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: It certainly is a kick in the nuts for us. Yes it is. It has been fairly consistent on having a much smaller areal coverage of heavy snows, relative to some of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Canadian is a Nut crushing special. Im just not sure how to respond to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: If Nut is in pain looking at that map, then yes. I almost said i never wanted something more.... Love my Canadian friends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Up to .5" for the day. Snow flakes have gotten smaller in size now. Still 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, anotherman said: I hear you. MA is melting down, that's for sure. Wouldn't take much for us to be next. absolutely....gotta keep it real until realtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I almost said i never wanted something more.... At our age, shoveling that much snow might lead to some physical...detriment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: At our age, shoveling that much snow might lead to some physical...detriment. you guys are old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHS@ABE Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’m skeptical of the forecasts for higher snowfall amounts. The ECMWF was overly bullish 10 days ago. With a sub 28” low east of Newfoundland a more amplified trough in the baroclinic zone is going to need everything in place. In addition, there is a lot of Arctic, dry air to overcome. Without a well amplified trough closer to the coast I’m thinking the widespread 12”+ aren’t going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gosnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Question - we have three results - one that spreads more snow to the nw and cuts our totals down in Lanco, while we have the jackpot thru lancaster and another one showing the whole area getting hit. I guess we need to wait for all the models agree or are there any thoughts on which way this could go. More confluence = more outside, less confluence = more inside? BTW it has been a record setting number of days w/o measurable so the fact that it is snowing today and Wed/Thurs leaves me giddy with joy. Just wondering others thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, DHS@ABE said: I’m skeptical of the forecasts for higher snowfall amounts. The ECMWF was overly bullish 10 days ago. With a sub 28” low east of Newfoundland a more amplified trough in the baroclinic zone is going to need everything in place. In addition, there is a lot of Arctic, dry air to overcome. Without a well amplified trough closer to the coast I’m thinking the widespread 12”+ aren’t going to verify. GFS hinting at this by cutting precip each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: At our age, shoveling that much snow might lead to some physical...detriment. Pairing the right tool to our age helps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 26 minutes ago, canderson said: GFS hinting at this by cutting precip each run. this is true, but what is also true is that it is known for "losing" the storm only to bring it back inside 24. Not saying that's going to happen here as many models have been pretty firm on something coming, but its a possibility that we've seen a plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I think I would be more comfortable with a 4-8 forecast and get surprised in the 24 hrs leading up to the storm. Rather then NOAA being this bullish. A vast majority are in their safe zone for 12-24 inches. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, JTrout said: I think I would be more comfortable with a 4-8 forecast and get surprised in the 24 hrs leading up to the storm. Rather then NOAA being this bullish. A vast majority are in their safe zone for 12-24 inches. Crazy Its a valid perspective, but on the other side of the challenge is creating public awareness to the POTENTIAL...as there is a rather large difference in 8" vs 18''. They are rarely bullish, so when they are honking, ya gotta listen imo. Its really a no win proposition for them (as we all know), but I could see them getting roasted just as bad for "forgetting a 1 in front of the 8". Its just the way society is unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 And, we remember and criticize freely when they're wrong, but don't acknowledge and appreciate the times (which is more often than not) they are right. Hey, I work for a large food manufacturer...the only times when we hear from customers is when we got it wrong... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Its a valid perspective, but on the other side of the challenge is creating public awareness to the POTENTIAL...as there is a rather large difference in 8" vs 18''. They are rarely bullish, so when they are honking, ya gotta listen imo. Its really a no win proposition for them (as we all know), but I could see them getting roasted just as bad for "forgetting a 1 in front of the 8". Its just the way society is unfortunately. I definitely understand, their job is public safety in regards to informing people of potential weather. If they didn't post a tornado warning and a tornado occurred killing people, they would get roasted. If it doesn't happen, the worst people do is hide in the basement for a little while. People will grumble either way, have to play it safe. Crippling snow storms are rare, and so fun for us. Makes me nervous in a good way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: And, we remember and criticize freely when they're wrong, but don't acknowledge and appreciate the times (which is more often than not) they are right. Hey, I work for a large food manufacturer...the only times when we hear from customers is when we got it wrong... I sell cars at Faulkner Chevy, well aware of customers being unhappy....selling anything mechanical is asking for someone to be unhappy. Especially big ticket repairs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: And, we remember and criticize freely when they're wrong, but don't acknowledge and appreciate the times (which is more often than not) they are right. Hey, I work for a large food manufacturer...the only times when we hear from customers is when we got it wrong... I'm guilty as charged. No doubt about it. They have a conservative bias to snow, and like you stated, its usually more right than wrong. Reading the discos from a couple days out wrt the midweek mauler has been fun (and a welcome departure from normal). See what I did there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12z Euro gets a few sleet pellet up to Rt. 30 in York/Lancaster counties. Otherwise it's another solid run for everyone. Looks like a solid 8" - 12" event for many south of Rt. 22 (conservative thinking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro shellacs most everyone again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro shellacs most everyone again. Great Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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