Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

[Cashtown_Coop]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are the latest EPS & GEFS ensembles which continue to target CTP with heavy snow.

 

About as good as it gets 

[Blizzard of 93]

17 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Bliz 

What's the wind going to be like for the Wednesday Storm ?

 

And we have winter storm Flynn...TWC

The highest wind should be over Eastern areas. The Euro shows gusts from 20 to 30 mph at the height of the storm Wednesday night for eastern CTP counties. Higher gusts are possible towards Philly suburbs & Lehigh Valley on east from there:

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP is worried about breaking the internet! They are feeling it in their discussion update this morning!

“Small waggles in the storm track on this or that model are
mainly distracting at this point. The preponderance of guidance
from man and machine is that we will be in the bullseye for the
highest snow amounts over all the eastern U.S. for this storm.

The changes overall to the Wednesday-night 24 hours are very
very small. But, as one forecaster said, we may end up breaking
the internet when we publish the first storm-total SF forecast
for the impending storm very shortly. The contours will go up to
20". The lowest numbers are in the NW. After collaboration with
WPC and the neighboring offices, we have settled on a Winter
Storm Watch for most of the CWA. We have left the NW 6-7
counties out for the time being, though their totals do look
like a good 4-6". Nothing to sneeze at, surely. The majority of
the snow will fall between 18Z Wed and 06Z Thurs, but we used
the rough 8" contour for the watch as a starting point as the
snow will probably be longer than that simple 12hr period.
There may be additions to the watch later today.”

 

 

[WmsptWx]

I've never seen CTP so aggressive. They've gone all-in. 

[djr5001]

 

[Jns2183]

I've never seen CTP so aggressive. They've gone all-in. 

Have we been ground zero in such a consistent manner ?

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[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

 

@Cashtown_Coop I still like where you're at. 

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro says all systems go!

 

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

 

That is super aggressive for CTP from 2 days out!

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That is super aggressive for CTP from 2 days out!

They are usually the last ones to the table.

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Cashtown_Coop I still like where you're at. 

I’m def in a good spot.   Should be a jackpot zone within a tier of counties around me. 

[pawatch]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That is super aggressive for CTP from 2 days out!

The models are locked in hard. A pretty sure bet for them. 

Just Wow on the Euro runs.   

[WmsptWx]

Has Bellefonte or Mill Hall ever been the bullseye? That's a foreign look to me...

[Cashtown_Coop]

Getting the big boy ready   
Scale goes to 40”

[Blizzard of 93]

Have a great day of posting guys... I will be back this evening! Please keep the good posts & maps coming for when I can check in once in a while. 
I can’t wait to see snowflakes today too!

[Blizzard of 93]

Ok, 1 last post for now...

Snow is mixing in now in Marysville!

[Voyager]

For today's obs so far:

A mix of rain, sleet, and snow falling. No pavement accumulations, but cars are slushy, and the grass has a white hue to it. Temp is 36 currently.

[Superstorm]

Mixing between paradise and gap in Lanco.


.

[mahantango#1]

Rain has turned over to wet snow.

[Itstrainingtime]

All rain (moderate) here in the historic district. Raw day...(and very dark)

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Mixing between paradise and gap in Lanco.


.

Wow, just posted that it's still all rain out this way. You must have some pretty good rates. 

[Greensnow]

Snow on the hill-tops but downtown Scranton had nothing but flakes falling.

Looking like a crusher up here in NEPA on Wed/Thurs! 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, we just need to move the 0z Euro low track about 25 miles further east to limit the chance of any mixing for @pasnownut

I'm like trainerboy, and dont have a problem w/ mixing as it does help for pack retention, but sleet/zr/r after an inch or 2 when 25-50 miles NW is in double digit totals is something were all too familiar w/ down here.  It really is a kick in the gonads, BUT, if we can get to warning levels then mix....I wont complain as much. 

Ya'll dont know how many times i've looked to the NW knowing that was snow falling, while getting pissed on by mo nature at my house.  

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I'm like trainerboy, and dont have a problem w/ mixing as it does help for pack retention, but sleet/zr/r after an inch or 2 when 25-50 miles NW is in double digit totals is something were all too familiar w/ down here.  It really is a kick in the gonads, BUT, if we can get to warning levels then mix....I wont complain as much. 

Ya'll dont know how many times i've looked to the NW knowing that was snow falling, while getting pissed on by mo nature at my house.  

 

It sucks. No sense saying anything other than what it is. I try and appease myself by understanding that there are storms where I get decent snow while Mag and others get cirrus. Yeah, it sounds good now, but tomorrow afternoon when I'm pinging or ZR and others are 1/4 mile vis in +SN, it doesn't feel so good then.

For what it's worth, @MillvilleWxwho is a great met that posts in here from time to time, thinks that the jackpot might end up in the hills of York county between York and Harrisburg, which would seem to better scenario for us mixy folks in the SE part of the region. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

Have we been ground zero in such a consistent manner ?

Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk
 

last blizzard of 16 we were from a week out.  Like this one...its a very unsettling and unusual feeling as were all too used to the jog NW inside 24, but reading ctp's disco....as well as NWS, its really a boost for ones confidence.  On thing that has been stable is the thermal profiles, and for that reason, i'd wager the uptick in confidence.

[Itstrainingtime]

31 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Rain has turned over to wet snow.

Gotta think you're in a very sweet spot for the big show!

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

They are usually the last ones to the table.

 

Yeah thats for sure.  It like Christmas is coming early to CTP.  

[pasnownut]

33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Wow, just posted that it's still all rain out this way. You must have some pretty good rates. 

I thought the same when i read his obs.  

slush bombs starting to mix in 30 minutes ago on way into ETown.  37 in Akron to 38 in Lanc, to 36 in Etown said car thermo.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I thought the same when i read his obs.  

slush bombs starting to mix in 30 minutes ago on way into ETown.  37 in Akron to 38 in Lanc, to 36 in Etown said car thermo.

Still a chilly 100% rain down the road from you and 36.6

[Voyager]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It sucks. No sense saying anything other than what it is. I try and appease myself by understanding that there are storms where I get decent snow while Mag and others get cirrus. Yeah, it sounds good now, but tomorrow afternoon when I'm pinging or ZR and others are 1/4 mile vis in +SN, it doesn't feel so good then.

 

I think the worst for me is when three quarters of the forum is "puking snow" and I'm looking at "pixie dust". I can handle being on the warm side and it being a rainer while it's snowing elsewhere. Getting a leaf blower storm while 30 miles away their digging out gets under my skin.