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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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Compared to the 0z the 12z Euro looks like it shifted the axis and the heart of that deform band SE a tad to reside right up I-81(0z swath of excessive was more between I-81 and 99 corridors. Still warning totals for all the subforum regulars and semi-regulars. 

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Early looks at the 12z Euro ensemble, I've used products that separate tomorrow's event out.

48hr snowfall mean 12z vs 6z:

1023583205_ScreenShot2020-12-13at2_11_05PM.thumb.png.a1c088d3015b19292bc30c14adec3a0c.png

24hr snowfall probability of >6"

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_24hr_ge_6-8206400.thumb.png.583e115a6aff6b3fe74a40aab1724499.png

24 hr snowfall probability of >12"

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_24hr_ge_12-8206400.thumb.png.05e2e56eba604329fdc7f8f8682ebeb4.png

No probs were generated on the >18" and >24". No matter though, that's about as strong of a significant snow signal as you'll get out of the ensemble guidance. 

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