Superstorm Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Boy is this nice to see. That is sweet as pie!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 For those interested, Horst doesn't tweet as much as he did when he was weather director at MU. He updated an hour or so ago saying he expects a jackpot of 16" somewhere in our area. Of course, mentions taint in York and Lancaster with all snow north and west of Harrisburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Let’s get ready for 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: For those interested, Horst doesn't tweet as much as he did when he was weather director at MU. He updated an hour or so ago saying he expects a jackpot of 16" somewhere in our area. Of course, mentions taint in York and Lancaster with all snow north and west of Harrisburg. We know exactly where that 16” of snow will verify.... @Cashtown_Coop ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Here is a another view of the 18z GEFS. CTP is in a great spot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: For those interested, Horst doesn't tweet as much as he did when he was weather director at MU. He updated an hour or so ago saying he expects a jackpot of 16" somewhere in our area. Of course, mentions taint in York and Lancaster with all snow north and west of Harrisburg. Here is the Horst tweet that you mentioned. “expect a bullseye of 16" to fall somewhere in Central PA (too early to pick the spot). Rain/snow line near Philly. Snow/mix line near York/Lanc...w/ all snow N&W of Harrisburg.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Wow...most all of Pa. Getting a good shot of snow Wednesday. What's not to like after last year. Good seeing some old members posting too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Horst was never a super frequent poster, but I already miss his weekly/biweekly discussions on the millersville forecast center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The 18z EPS low track is slightly further east with several individual ensemble member tracks that are ideal for all of CTP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The 18z EPS snow map is still impressive. About 1 inch of this is from Monday and the rest is all from the main event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Our Lancaster folks will really like the 18z EPS Control run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Accuweather has an early map out that is very aggressive. Usually they have very conservative maps, but they seem all in on this storm! For some reason it won’t copy on here, but they have a large area of 12-18 inches that covers a good chunk of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Accuweather has an early map out that is very aggressive. Usually they have very conservative maps, but they seem all in on this storm! For some reason it won’t copy on here, but they have a large area of 12-18 inches that covers a good chunk of CTP. here you go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 0z NAM ticks SE. for #1. Not sure I expected that but welcome it for the main event later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: 0z NAM ticks SE. not sure I expected that but welcome it for the main event later on. TT is so slow on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Not bad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Shouldn’t do this but ohh well haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 0z NAM ticks SE. for #1. Not sure I expected that but welcome it for the main event later on. Isn't that what we need for a bigger hit from storm #2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 0z NAM ticks SE. for #1. Not sure I expected that but welcome it for the main event later on. I've been away today and haven't had much time to scrutinize models too much, but vs the 18z NAM this first event is way more robust on the 0z. 0z on the left, 18z right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The 3K NAM brings it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Voyager said: Isn't that what we need for a bigger hit from storm #2? I really think you sit in the catbird seat. I’m concerned about LSV and taint or changeover for number 2 down here. I need boundary a tick SE for me wrt #2. also as long as spacing between 1 and 2 stays the same it shouldn’t change much w/ # 2 s potential. Any less spacing and dynamics get robbed a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: I've been away today and haven't had much time to scrutinize models too much, but vs the 18z NAM this first event is way more robust on the 0z. 0z on the left, 18z right I scrolled thru the panels and thought the same. Need to make sure #1 doesn’t blow up much more as it could hurt # 2s potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I really think you sit in the catbird seat. I’m concerned about LSV and taint or changeover for number 2 down here. I need boundary a tick SE for me wrt #2. The 18z EPS & Control say Lancaster is in great shape! The Euro dominates the GFS in these type of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: I scrolled thru the panels and thought the same. Need to make sure #1 doesn’t blow up much more as it could hurt # 2s potential. @psuhoffman did a great analysis on this earlier. Either way, we should be in great shape. Let’s take any snow anytime that we can get it! If Monday delivers too, then bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z EPS & Control say Lancaster is in great shape! The Euro dominates the GFS in these type of events. Call me snakebit. Yeah it does historically do better w skill scores but GFS has been eeking NW and has me a bit “on edge”. Seeing NAM CMC and euro SE of GFS is nice for sure. Hoping next few runs to see the GFS come SE a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: Isn't that what we need for a bigger hit from storm #2? It was a concern I initially had, mainly because of timing and getting the systems too close together was my worry. As this has evolved the last couple days it doesn't appear to be as much of an issue, especially on the Euro. That has generally been the most aggressive model with northern extent on this first event and it's been subsequently pounding the Mid-Atl/NE with the main system regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yesterday I mentioned Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast which contains a bunch of analogs of waning Nina's through winter. He gave double weight to several years which included 1995-96. Back in December of '95 I still lived in northern NJ. I distinctly remember a significant snowstorm just a week before Christmas. Actually, it was December 19th and I measured 13" from that storm. It was very cold and that kept a good chunk of the snowfall still around when the blockbuster January 6th storm hit. That winter the snow started falling in November and didn't stop until the middle of April! I measured 92" total snow for that record season which still stands for me as the greatest snow season of my life. I just think it's interesting to watch things unfold in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: It was a concern I initially had, mainly because of timing and getting the systems too close together was my worry. As this has evolved the last couple days it doesn't appear to be as much of an issue, especially on the Euro. That has generally been the most aggressive model with northern extent on this first event and it's been subsequently pounding the Mid-Atl/NE with the main system regardless. Good to know. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Did we ever have this look last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather said: Did we ever have this look last winter? Easy answer...NO !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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