MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: As allweather was saying earlier, it’s a balancing act to deliver the right message but to put 14” here as upper end 10% doesn’t get it. This escalated rapidly. Up until yesterday there weren't very many model runs with the big totals.. with only really the Euro having that run or two with the 30"+ (down in VA/DC). Everything's coming back to slowing/stalling that low closer to the coast right in the zone we need it. Add in that tremendous easterly flow and warmer than average Atlantic and suddenly we're burying folks on all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Okay guys. Be honest.... How many have needed a private room the last hour of 12z runs? I went to a theatre like Pee Wee Herman 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather5 said: What the f&#$. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: I went to a theatre like Pee Wee Herman You can rent the midtown cinema for $100 .... we did it before thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: 40" my goodness. @Voyager 4 foot bullseye. He may need to travel to ORD via a snowmobile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: This escalated rapidly. Up until yesterday there weren't very many model runs with the big totals.. with only really the Euro having that run or two with the 30"+ (down in VA/DC). Everything's coming back to slowing/stalling that low closer to the coast right in the zone we need it. Add in that tremendous easterly flow and warmer than average Atlantic and suddenly we're burying folks on all the models. Good point. Things are ramping up quickly and at the right time. Right before game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Ukie finally came around again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, AllWeather said: I agree, and those numbers will probably change with today's full 12z suite in (or maybe after 00z tonight). Communicating this information to the average Joe is a science in itself. If you prepare people for a 6"+ snow, they typically will hunker down anyways. Then if totals go higher, it doesn't really affect them too much more other than additional clean up because they were already prepped to lay low (obviously if it's a crusher storm, the clean up can linger for days). On the contrary, if you prep people for a blockbuster, and it goes bust - well that affects people in a variety of socioeconomic ways (i.e. they closed their businesses when they didn't have to, took off work to stay home with their kids, etc). These forecasters must walk a fine line....it's easier for the public to understand if you go conservative and get surprised. However pitchforks are way more likely to come out if you overblow it and get surprised the other way. The boy that cried wolf Syndrome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather5 said: Ukie finally came around again. UKIE was sitting and spinning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We just need a euro nuking that shows 24”+ amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Warnings up down in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 35 minutes ago, paweather said: I don't think I have ever seen the grays on a snow map before. 2016 ....! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intentionallove Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 36 minutes ago, paweather said: I don't think I have ever seen the grays on a snow map before. Over me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 2016 ....! Gosh don't remember that on a map. Thanks Blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Warnings up down in DC. Just read dc’s warning. 4-8” and that’s thru Sunday night. Good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 2016 ....! IIRC the NAM was the only model printing out obscene totals up until the day of. Others showed a big storm but not like the NAM’s snowpocalypse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Holy bleep ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, paweather said: Mag - have you ever seen gray/black on a snow map? As long as I have been following winter I can't remember a time. I don't know if I ever saw such a big area of 40"+ on even the Canadian, which can put out some crazy stuff. The ratio isn't crazy either. Harrisburg gets 3.38" of QPF for a pretty reasonable 12:1 average through the event. Is that much QPF reasonable? I dunno about that yet. But still.. you can get to two feet pretty easily with 1.5-2" and good ratios. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: I don't know if I ever saw such a big area of 40"+ on even the Canadian, which can put out some crazy stuff. The ratio isn't crazy either. Harrisburg gets 3.38" of QPF for a pretty reasonable 12:1 average through the event. Is that much QPF reasonable? I dunno about that yet. But still.. you can get to two feet pretty easily with 1.5-2" and good ratios. Thanks Mag. This is surreal as a snow lover whether I will be disappointed at the end or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, canderson said: IIRC the NAM was the only model printing out obscene totals up until the day of. Others showed a big storm but not like the NAM’s snowpocalypse. Yes, in 2016 I had never seen those type of snow totals before on a snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just when should we expect the heavy accumulating snow to start in the Harrisburg area...Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, mahantango#1 said: Just when should we expect the heavy accumulating snow to start in the Harrisburg area...Sunday night? Early afternoon it looks like. Edit: oh heavy. We get the primary snow up to 5” or so Sunday and then early Monday am I think start getting the coastal bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, canderson said: Early afternoon it looks like. So there won't be a lull between the heavier stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: Early afternoon it looks like. Yep going to vary the first shot of snow is coming from the primary which will be light to moderate during the day Sunday. Second shot will be the coastal, which as modeled right now will be the heaviest Sunday night into Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, mahantango#1 said: So there won't be a lull between the heavier stuff? There may be a lull don't know those details yet. May not know those details until the whole event happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Yep going to vary the first shot of snow is coming from the primary which will be light to moderate during the day Sunday. Second shot will be the coastal, which as modeled right now will be the heaviest Sunday night into Monday night. So condition might be pretty hazardous till2:00am on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, mahantango#1 said: So condition might be pretty hazardous till2:00am on Monday? I can't answer a specific time. :-) I think Sunday night into Tuesday morning will be very hazardous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather said: I can't answer a specific time. :-) I think Sunday night into Tuesday morning will be very hazardous. thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Guys, please don’t go buying yard sticks, snow blowers or even shovels.That’s bad juju.I bought a yard stick before that one storm in the early 2000’s (don’t even want to mention month or year) to measure 3” of snow and ice.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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