GrandmasterB Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather said: What could go wrong? I couldn't draw that up any better in my basement! PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: @AllWeather I miss watching you on wgal. I can picture you talking about the storm and trying to keep your inner weenie from getting out to the public. Thank you for the kind words! And yeah, was always a real balance striking the right tone for a variety of different types of viewers. Some HATE snow, while others love it, so you have to be careful. My goal was always just to lay out what we know and be honest about what we didn’t know, and what could “go wrong” with a forecast. I think people respect that. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: What could go wrong? Wow, that is just perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, GrandmasterB said: I couldn't draw that up any better in my basement! PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE be right. Insane Consensus as Cashtown just stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CMC is snowing until Tuesday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: CMC is snowing until Tuesday night! Lol another 30” run ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Lol another 30” run ? Could be for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I don't think I have ever seen the grays on a snow map before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather said: speechless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather said: I don't think I have ever seen the grays on a snow map before. 3ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: 3ft We can dream it, don't think it will happen like this but my goodness. Un-stinking believable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Okay guys. Be honest.... How many have needed a private room the last hour of 12z runs? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Okay guys. Be honest.... How many have needed a private room the last hour of 12z runs?I’m cleaning the house and keep stopping to check. Unbelievable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Okay guys. Be honest.... How many have needed a private room the last hour of 12z runs? Just seeing the CMC...That is all it takes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Difficult forecast. Big difference between 8 to 10 inches or 2 to 3 feet. . Yep. We still need to keep the taint part in back of our minds. Think back to Monday. While setup is rather different we’re always close to warmth so no Restin easy until 0zs for you festus trainer and I 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I know I’m being a little bullish, but with past big snow events, forecast snow amounts are always too low. It’s almost like NWS follows snow reports and keeps edging the amounts as the storm is in motion. This is a 20-30” storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: Yep. We still need to keep the taint part in back of our minds. Think back to Monday. While setup is rather different we’re always close to warmth so no Restin easy until 0zs for you festus trainer and I Even if you or I were to changeover for a bit it won't matter that much on the snow depth. I don't see it happening. Not with the model trends now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: I know I’m being a little bullish, but with past big snow events, forecast snow amounts are always too low. It’s almost like NWS follows snow reports and keeps edging the amounts as the storm is in motion. This is a 20-30” storm. They don't want to cause too much panic whether right or wrong with that. It's normal they will up them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, paweather said: They don't want to cause too much panic whether right or wrong with that. It's normal they will up them. As allweather was saying earlier, it’s a balancing act to deliver the right message but to put 14” here as upper end 10% doesn’t get it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Zoinks. Maybe the Weather Channel needs to refire the 2 - 3 ft graphic. And then 50 and rain by Friday. Double zoinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 It's like every time I thought I saw the craziest model runs ever leading up to a big storm in the last decade, the next big storm comes along with something crazier. This storm's starting in 24hrs or less guys. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Festus said: Zoinks. Maybe the Weather Channel needs to refire the 2 - 3 ft graphic. And then 50 and rain by Friday. Double zoinks. Maybe they weren't off. I can't think about anything other than tomorrow through Tuesday. Forgetting the extended right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: It's like every time I thought I saw the craziest model runs ever leading up to a big storm in the last decade, the next big storm comes along with something crazier. This storm's starting in 24hrs or less guys. Mag - have you ever seen gray/black on a snow map? As long as I have been following winter I can't remember a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: As allweather was saying earlier, it’s a balancing act to deliver the right message but to put 14” here as upper end 10% doesn’t get it. I agree, and those numbers will probably change with today's full 12z suite in (or maybe after 00z tonight). Communicating this information to the average Joe is a science in itself. If you prepare people for a 6"+ snow, they typically will hunker down anyways. Then if totals go higher, it doesn't really affect them too much more other than additional clean up because they were already prepped to lay low (obviously if it's a crusher storm, the clean up can linger for days). On the contrary, if you prep people for a blockbuster, and it goes bust - well that affects people in a variety of socioeconomic ways (i.e. they closed their businesses when they didn't have to, took off work to stay home with their kids, etc). These forecasters must walk a fine line....it's easier for the public to understand if you go conservative and get surprised. However pitchforks are way more likely to come out if you overblow it and get surprised the other way. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather5 said: I’m fringed toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS ensemble looks perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather5 said: 40" my goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather5 said: That is just absurd. And it's less than 24 hours away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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