jm1220 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Euro 7pm & 10pm Monday wow!!!!! Yes!! The best wouldn't get back to I-99 on this run but high ratios would help it end up better than precip/snow maps would say off the bat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, jm1220 said: I'll always be part of your suffering. My State College years 2004-09 were brutal. I rooted for you guys on 12/17 when I knew it would be a Central PA event, best in a decade!! (ended up with the best a little north of expected but IPT still had 24") Good I know I know you so well in these forums. so why I said what I said. But we have so many good runs right now with this storm. Anyways, hope all is well check in more please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 It’s still dumping snow with wraparound banding at 4am Tuesday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Well no one's gettin 30-40"+ but it's a straight up butt kicking across the whole state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CTP probably gonna update that forecast discussion after this euro ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Euro 7pm & 10pm Monday wow!!!!! OK! I'm ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: Well no one's gettin 30-40"+ but it's a straight up butt kicking across the whole state. Somehow keep it this way please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, canderson said: CTP probably gonna update that forecast discussion after this euro ...... No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: Well no one's gettin 30-40"+ but it's a straight up butt kicking across the whole state. Almost all of PA is covered with double digits. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Well well well, I guess my Rt 30 to the Turnpike from Gettysburg, up to Harrisburg, over to Philly with a southern line down to 15 miles south of the PA line is in good shape as the best potential within both this sub and the MA sub. Looking good guys. I’m liking Lancaster County with this one, as well as York and Berks. I think the best will be just to the East towards Chester and MoCo PA counties, but 10-15” with Max to 20” is within the realm for someone in the forum. I’m heading to bed over yonder. I’ll have more tomorrow. Have a great night. Cheers! . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Well well well, I guess my Rt 30 to the Turnpike from Gettysburg, up to Harrisburg, over to Philly with a southern line down to 15 miles south of the PA line is in good shape as the best potential within both this sub and the MA sub. Looking good guys. I’m liking Lancaster County with this one, as well as York and Berks. I think the best will be just to the East towards Chester and MoCo PA counties, but 10-15” with Max to 20” is within the realm for someone in the forum. I’m heading to bed over yonder. I’ll have more tomorrow. Have a great night. Cheers! . AGREED. If the Euro this is a long duration event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Somehow keep it this way please. Yup I'm cashing that one out right now, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Here is the zoomed in 0z Euro snow map for CTP through Tuesday night. Crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: Yup I'm cashing that one out right now, lol. Great consensus tonight between the GFS, Canadian & Euro for a CTP snow mauling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The EPS should be good a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hate to say it but I doubt it turns out like this. There are certain situations where much of PA and the NYC area get crushed like in 2003 and 2016 (Nino years), or the fluke 03-04 winter. This is a moderate Nina and the trending probably isn't done. That's a benefit for you guys, hopefully for me it isn't enjoy for a couple hours before rain or the dryslot. Even if so you guys deserve it though, hopefully this can be the diamond in the rough somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 How many hours straight of snow is this?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Well well well, I guess my Rt 30 to the Turnpike from Gettysburg, up to Harrisburg, over to Philly with a southern line down to 15 miles south of the PA line is in good shape as the best potential within both this sub and the MA sub. Looking good guys. I’m liking Lancaster County with this one, as well as York and Berks. I think the best will be just to the East towards Chester and MoCo PA counties, but 10-15” with Max to 20” is within the realm for someone in the forum. I’m heading to bed over yonder. I’ll have more tomorrow. Have a great night. Cheers! . I think models are finally starting to fill in this precip shield between the transferring lows in realization of that major easterly fetch off the ocean between the system and the blocking pattern. The setup's just too good with that established 850mb primary low tracking just under PA and transferring. Look at the 850mb jet just nosed right through PA. Couldn't ask for much better placement of that 850mb low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I think models are finally starting to fill in this precip shield between the transferring lows in realization of that major easterly fetch off the ocean between the system and the blocking pattern. The setup's just too good with that established 850mb primary low tracking just under PA and transferring. Look at the 850mb jet just nosed right through PA. Couldn't ask for much better placement of that 850mb low. That could maybe do it for both our regions, that 850mb jet is crazy. It'll be a faster thump where I am on that jet while the cold air lasts but the overall evolution and CCB development and good ratios benefit you guys. Maybe it can stay that way. We all get our 12"+ but you get it over a day while I get it in 8 hours and go to a dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wind per the 0z Euro for most of CTP look to range between 20 to 30 mph at the height of the storm, with higher gusts towards NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 25 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hate to say it but I doubt it turns out like this. There are certain situations where much of PA and the NYC area get crushed like in 2003 and 2016 (Nino years), or the fluke 03-04 winter. This is a moderate Nina and the trending probably isn't done. That's a benefit for you guys, hopefully for me it isn't enjoy for a couple hours before rain or the dryslot. Even if so you guys deserve it though, hopefully this can be the diamond in the rough somehow. Yea, this hasn't been standard boilerplate Nina though. Not with that dominant -NAO/AO blocking pattern. I don't even know how effective taking an analog approach really is when trying to compare to past Nina's because you really can't find one quite like how this one is shaking out so far...imo anyways. With the storm I actually commented a couple times about the swath, as in how often to you see a Chicago to DC heavy snow swath.. or even a Chicago to NYC one? You don't have the established blocking regime and a system that cracks Chicago with a big snowstorm is probably causing p-type issues at best in the Mid-Atl/NE. Which was why I took pause with yesterday being as far south with the swath as it was.. with last night's 0z Euro being the "low water mark" so to speak. I'm not an expert on Long Island climo but I'd think if that coastal stalls/meanders off the Jersey Shore south enough the damage is probably done before you ever mix. Yea it may come north further, but this has stronger blocking and prime dead of winter climo compared to the December storm. That heavy swath is gonna probably be somewhere south of that one, which should bode well for NYC because they did okay in December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looking down the road just for a moment after this storm, most models show a brief warm up along with a cutter that brings a cold front through the east by the end of next week. It looks like plenty of cold air should be available again after the front by next weekend. The Euro then has this snow chance for us on the 8th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea, this hasn't been standard boilerplate Nina though. Not with that dominant -NAO/AO blocking pattern. I don't even know how effective taking an analog approach really is when trying to compare to past Nina's because you really can't find one quite like how this one is shaking out so far...imo anyways. With the storm I actually commented a couple times about the swath, as in how often to you see a Chicago to DC heavy snow swath.. or even a Chicago to NYC one? You don't have the established blocking regime and a system that cracks Chicago with a big snowstorm is probably is causing p-type issues at best in the Mid-Atl/NE. Which was why I took pause with yesterday being as far south with the swath as it was.. with last night's 0z Euro being the "low water mark" so to speak. I'm not an expert on Long Island climo but I'd think if that coastal stalls/meanders off the Jersey Shore south enough the damage is probably done before you ever mix. Yea it may come north further, but this has stronger blocking and prime dead of winter climo compared to the December storm. That heavy swath is gonna probably be somewhere south of that one, which should bode well for NYC because they did okay in December. Maybe the upper air low meanders enough that warm air is eventually brought in aloft and mixes us when the 850mb jet max passes us and there's kind of a dryslot. That's what the NAM/Euro tonight kinda indicated and there's precedent for that, i.e. 2/13/14. Anyway we'll see what tomorrow brings. I wouldn't mind the crazy 8 hour thump or so to it drying out and it being mild until what's left of the CCB comes in. 12/17 had that but the dryslot was aggressive and broke the heavy snow up which allowed the warm air to take over here. Always a risk. 8" here from that, could've been 12"+ if it cooperated a little better. Seeing the 16"+ from you guys on I-99 was worth it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro ensemble with a nod toward the op. Pretty good jump from 18z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Yes, great EPS run that delivers for most of CTP. Good improvement over the last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, great EPS run that delivers for most of CTP. Good improvement over the last couple of runs. Best case right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Good Morning! Here is the latest snow map from CTP with their “Expected Snow”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Here is the CTP “ High End Amount” snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CTP’s snow maps for Harrisburg has 8 for the Expected and 15 for the High End amount of snow at this time. Hey, that range is just like what @MAG5035 had put out there yesterday for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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