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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MAG5035 based on what you said this afternoon on how high amounts might go, is it safe to assume that the NAM is at the upper end of the envelope, potential wise? 

 

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Our friends down south are laughing off the NAM. Not a wise decision IMHO. 

Well they can laugh but I'm starting to think that Subforum region is in the position the LSV was with the December storm. I mean that accumulation call I made earlier was a fairly safe preliminary call and I didn't bite on yesterday's model cycle dropping south either so I liked southern PA US-22 and south down to MD's I-70 corridor for the heavy swath. It's definitely looking like this heavy corridor is shifting north but like the LSV in the Dec storm, there was still a good event to be had before any mixing issues and I think the DC and north folks do fine. 

I said earlier that we def could see higher amounts than the 8-14 but probably less than 20"... and I'm sticking with that for now but I'm definitely watching what guidance is starting to do.. Models are starting to slow that coastal low down again which lengthens the time the deform hangs. They're also starting to solidify the precip shield.. which is something I expected given the anomalous 850mb easterly flow all the way into the Ohio Valley with the 850 low transferring just underneath PA. 

On CTP issuing watches for just the first tier of counties:

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*UPDATED 9 PM FRI EVENING*

Latest ensemble probabilities have increased likelihood for
warning criteria snowfall across our southern tier Sun-Mon, with
sufficient confidence to hoist Winter Storm Watch headlines
from Somerset to Lancaster Counties. This in good collaboration
with LWX and PHI and latest Snowprobs, which are showing nearly
categorical likelihood of exceeding Advisory criteria and 65-70%
likelihood of exceeding 6" over York and Lancaster Counties.
Watches *may* need to be expanded slightly northward in time,
but it appears that most of the remainder of central PA south of
I80 is looking at Advisory criteria snow, and at this time no
ptype issues to speak of.

Rolling with the ensemble guidance generally by the sounds of it, which is a good start considering op models are still in flux right now. If the Euro and ensembles start reflecting what the early stuff is putting forth tonight, they will likely be adding counties and perhaps more than slightly northward. One thing to consider for that I-80 corridor, if say the ensembles get like UNV and IPT into a 6" mean.. duration. It's likely they will be considering the 8" in 24 hrs over the 6" in 12hr criteria for a WSW. They may roll with an advisory even if the I-80 corridor sees 6" or so by the end. That's if the I-80 corridor doesn't end up in the thick of it too, lol. 

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