Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: I still remember the CTP's forecast discussion like 2-3 days before the Feb 5-6 storm. Was something like "3 perhaps 4 inches along and south of the turnpike" CTP was calling for 2-4" for Lanco 36 hours prior to arrival in '96. I measured 30.5" 3 days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: I still remember the CTP forecast discussion like 2-3 days before the Feb 5-6 storm. Said something like "3 perhaps 4 inches along and south of the turnpike" Right and then as the time got closer everyone on the TV markets had an "oh god," moment and had to sound the alarm. Similar thing happened in 2017? I may be off on the year, but I was at my parents house in Huntingdon county and the night before the storm, Joe Murgo's head blew up on tv like the dude from "Scanners." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Nice run for GFS. . Widespread double digit amounts over the southern half of PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GEFS with a nice jackpot over south-central areas 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Para keeps the nuclear option on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said: Para keeps the nuclear option on the table. MDT nuke job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 23 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Right and then as the time got closer everyone on the TV markets had an "oh god," moment and had to sound the alarm. Similar thing happened in 2017? I may be off on the year, but I was at my parents house in Huntingdon county and the night before the storm, Joe Murgo's head blew up on tv like the dude from "Scanners." This just happened last month too. Model's putting the bullseye in the Sus Valley for the few days leading up. When the short term guidance morning of the storm was targeting places like State College and in between there to Harrisburg, I thought I might just see my first 20"+ storm since I was like 8 years old. And then the 20-40 inches ended up going from Clearfield- Williamsport-Binghamton while half the Sus Valley ended up mixing. Murgo slipped out a "s*it-load of snow" going over one of the short range model animations on his live forecast for that by the way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: This just happened last month too. Model's putting the bullseye in the Sus Valley for the few days leading up. When the short term guidance morning of the storm was targeting places like State College and in between there to Harrisburg, I thought I might just see my first 20"+ storm since I was like 8 years old. And then the 20-40 inches ended up going from Clearfield- Williamsport-Binghamton while half the Sus Valley ended up mixing. Murgo slipped out a "s*it-load of snow" going over one of the short range model animations on his live forecast for that by the way lol. Joe is a great follow on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: This just happened last month too. Model's putting the bullseye in the Sus Valley for the few days leading up. When the short term guidance morning of the storm was targeting places like State College and in between there to Harrisburg, I thought I might just see my first 20"+ storm since I was like 8 years old. And then the 20-40 inches ended up going from Clearfield- Williamsport-Binghamton. Murgo slipped out a "s*it-load of snow" going over one of the short range model animations on his live forecast for that by the way lol. Dang I didn’t know that. We need to get Mag his big daddy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Can someone explain the zero precip in fayette county in the western laurels? Is that the dry slot where the transfer is happening? I'm not sure which model your looking at but I only saw that effect on the 3k NAM this afternoon, which was showing some mixing in SW PA into the ridges. I do know it was showing up in previous runs and it's likely the easterly flow during the transfer causing a downslope effect on guidance on the west side of the Laurel's. Today's guidance is mostly showing better precip into PA from the primary today and a better precip shield overall so I don't think this potential effect would be too much of an issue as it's being presented currently... especially in southern PA where the best QPF is right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Dang I didn’t know that. We need to get Mag his big daddy storm Lol all the big ones from '96 on were mid-high teens storms here. 2003 may have done it between the storm and the upper level low passage the night after the storm ended but I never really measured that one. 2/5/10 I had like 17.5" I believe, but nearly 30" that week between that and 2/10/10. 2016 was close with those amounts being at the bottom of the county. I'd be happy with a second double digit storm for the season, that hasn't happened here since 2010. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 27 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said: Para keeps the nuclear option on the table. Man, I'm getting tired of being the bullseye. PS...I can see that several of us including @Blizzard of 93, @sauss06, and @canderson are also in it with me, and maybe also @Cashtown_Coop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 That GFS is the stuff of dreams. Watch 0z be totally different lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: GFS is 1-1.5" of QPF, all snow for us... 18z GFS was awesome! It looked like the really good Euro runs from 2 or 3 days ago. We are very much in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Im torn. Im loving the tracking and the forum posts but I really dont want to deal with going into work in the snow on Monday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Anduril said: Im torn. Im loving the tracking and the forum posts but I really dont want to deal with going into work in the snow on Monday lol What's that call off number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Widespread double digit amounts over the southern half of PA. Yes, 18z GFS Crushed us with snow. Lots of precip showing up in the LSV, which is nice to see under 3 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: What's that call off number? 1-800-getyourasstowork :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 59 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Lol all the big ones from '96 on were mid-high teens storms here. 2003 may have done it between the storm and the upper level low passage the night after the storm ended but I never really measured that one. 2/5/10 I had like 17.5" I believe, but nearly 30" that week between that and 2/10/10. 2016 was close with those amounts being at the bottom of the county. I'd be happy with a second double digit storm for the season, that hasn't happened here since 2010. This one prob won’t get the job done but the end of feb into March is your window to get 2ft of snow that tracks up to state college while it’s raining in cashtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 26 minutes ago, Anduril said: 1-800-getyourasstowork :p Call @sauss06 I bet he can get a firetruck to come take you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z GFS WOOZER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 OK. Are we ready for 0z yet? No sleep weekend coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 WNEP Channel 16 isn't optimistic. They just had a map up of low and medium risk areas -- of getting 3-4"! Williamsport falls in the low risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18Z Euro is outstanding. What a great day of model runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Mshaffer526 said: 18Z Euro is outstanding. What a great day of model runs. @pasnownut your positive vibes have worked so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: 18Z Euro is outstanding. What a great day of model runs. Yes, it is slowly coming back north! Amounts approaching 1 foot from around the turnpike and to the south on the 18z Euro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoralRed said: WNEP Channel 16 isn't optimistic. They just had a map up of low and medium risk areas -- of getting 3-4"! Williamsport falls in the low risk area. For Williamsport and NEPA this is at best 3 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The storm on the 18z Euro just stalls out off of the coast of the DelMarVa. This is hour 66 and then it is still going at the end of the 90 hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: CTP was calling for 2-4" for Lanco 36 hours prior to arrival in '96. I measured 30.5" 3 days later. Best bust of our lifetimes. Up skiing with my daughter at blue mtn. Can’t wait for real snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, 18z GFS Crushed us with snow. Lots of precip showing up in the LSV, which is nice to see under 3 days out! Looks like some of yesterday’s runs. thx fir makn happy hour happier guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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