paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, sauss06 said: id like to see it snow through Monday around noon please. When we had those earlier Model runs it was snowing into Tuesday. The one other trend we are seeing in with the models is no mixing issues in S PA like they were showing in earlier runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If I get 6” out of this I’ll be pleased. Less I’ll be sad but not really mad. More I’ll be ecstatic But half a foot seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: If I get 6” out of this I’ll be pleased. Less I’ll be sad but not really mad. More I’ll be ecstatic But half a foot seems reasonable. I agree with this. I set my bar too high seeing the big totals earlier on the models. But everything is still in play and will be until game time. Models will likely be all over the place especially with Miller B's. It could be a monster hit, to a medium 6-8" hit, to a bust. If it is a car topper please band me canderson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, canderson said: If I get 6” out of this I’ll be pleased. Less I’ll be sad but not really mad. More I’ll be ecstatic But half a foot seems reasonable. You sound like every woman before a blind date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z Euro ensemble has 6" mean solidly back into the southern tier. Best that's looked since 12z yesterday. CTP with it's opening snowmap: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: You sound like every woman before a blind date. You know what they say about things being funniest the first time?? Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Well we always have the NAM coming up to start HH. Cheers to good Friday HH runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not an EPS guy but I had to steal this, don't tell the cops: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: 12z Euro ensemble has 6" mean solidly back into the southern tier. Best that's looked since 12z yesterday. CTP with it's opening snowmap: Looks like that shaft of ❄ is starting to get further into PA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Look at how that hole over NE PA really eroded on the most recent run. That is what I wanted to see. Bingo!!Tells me better interaction between primary and coastal too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 22 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Bingo!! Tells me better interaction between primary and coastal too. . Thank you! Glad I wasn't the only one on that train. @Mshaffer526 you were watching this too! If this can keep going the other way (less confluence) our potential prize goes up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, canderson said: If I get 6” out of this I’ll be pleased. Less I’ll be sad but not really mad. More I’ll be ecstatic But half a foot seems reasonable. This is going to have a nice snowfall swath but I don't think this is going to have the high top end potential of the December system. With that said, we're getting pretty close to meso range and it's likely there's going to be some imbedded meso features in this precip shield that show up and probably bolster some totals. I'm liking a general 8-14" where the handoff pivots the precip shield without slotting, which I think at the moment roughly favors the southern tier east of US 219 and from US 22 and south down into the I-70 corridor in Northern MD. 4-8" is between that and I-80 and 2-5" above, with the lower side of the range NE PA. I think all of SW PA below I-80 could see a 4-8" type event if there's no mixing issues, which models have been bringing that primary south some. That would basically be how I'd draw my snowmap at the moment if I were to do so. Could there be bigger totals? Yea, but I think it stays under 20". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: This is going to have a nice snowfall swath but I don't think this is going to have the high top end potential of the December system. With that said, we're getting pretty close to meso range and it's likely there's going to be some imbedded meso features in this precip shield that show up and probably bolster some totals. I'm liking a general 8-14" where the handoff pivots the precip shield without slotting, which I think at the moment roughly favors the southern tier east of US 219 and from US 22 and south down into the I-70 corridor in Northern MD. 4-8" is between that and I-80 and 2-5" above, with the lower side of the range NE PA. I think all of SW PA below I-80 could see a 4-8" type event if there's no mixing issues, which models have been bringing that primary south some. That would basically be how I'd draw my snowmap at the moment if I were to do so. Could there be bigger totals? Yea, but I think it stays under 20". Thanks Mag for your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 MAG, that's a great call - thank you for your thoughts, as always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: This is going to have a nice snowfall swath but I don't think this is going to have the high top end potential of the December system. With that said, we're getting pretty close to meso range and it's likely there's going to be some imbedded meso features in this precip shield that show up and probably bolster some totals. I'm liking a general 8-14" where the handoff pivots the precip shield without slotting, which I think at the moment roughly favors the southern tier east of US 219 and from US 22 and south down into the I-70 corridor in Northern MD. 4-8" is between that and I-80 and 2-5" above, with the lower side of the range NE PA. I think all of SW PA below I-80 could see a 4-8" type event if there's no mixing issues, which models have been bringing that primary south some. That would basically be how I'd draw my snowmap at the moment if I were to do so. Could there be bigger totals? Yea, but I think it stays under 20". Thanks for the write up!! I’ve been seeing somerset getting hammered while fayette county ridges are dry slotting I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM is looking good to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If this doesn't explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Snow always seems to be more blue on the Nam maps via TT. Not sure why....just a coloring oddity I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Snow always seems to be more blue on the Nam maps via TT. Not sure why....just a coloring oddity I guess. It's a tease. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Primary down in W NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, paweather said: It's a tease. LOL. According to most people the whole Nam is a tease. Every other model can jump around run to run and people take it seriously but almost every post about the Nam on the MA is proceeded with 'I know its the Nam but...". I looked and cannot find verifications scores on Meso's but I would be surprised if the Nam was not number 1. Decent WAA on the Nam this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: According to most people the whole Nam is a tease. Every other model can jump around run to run and people take it seriously but almost every post about the Nam on the MA is proceeded with 'I know its the Nam but...". I looked and cannot find verifications scores on Meso's but I would be surprised if the Nam was not number 1. Decent WAA on the Nam this run. This is a weird run though 54 to 60 what is happening. But it is definitely a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Primary down in W NC? 500 and 850 lows are over southern ohio at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: This is a weird run though 54 to 60 what is happening. But it is definitely a good hit. Whether it is due to it being a Miller B or other factors I am not the final solution will ever be modeled correctly so I still am of the opinion that anyone in the southern half of PA is open to 12+ inch's right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Nice so far. 9" by 7:00AM Monday. I think that's before the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: 500 and 850 lows are over southern ohio at 57. Thanks. Just seemed different with the Low placements and then the transfer. Not complaining, we get crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Sepa looks worse than scpa if I’m reading this right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Sepa looks worse than scpa if I’m reading this right? It almost is like the NAM wants all of PA except for N PA to win on this if you go out to the 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13" (Kuchera) or 11" (10 to 1) by 1:00am Tuesday at end of run. I think it's done by then over us. Right inside Mag's 8-14" range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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