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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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I'm not sweating some stuff shifting around some right now. We have probably almost half the storm to go still out of NAM range and this thing's arriving roughly in D3 range. 

Mentioned this earlier today but look at the snow swath out in the midwest. Chicago getting clobbered with a snowstorm is typically from an event that is trying to cut and would give us p-type issues. We have blocking/confluence and such but I just don't think it's overwhelming enough that this thing get's completely stuffed or something like that. How many storm examples are out there of a Chicago - DC heavy snow axis? Or even a Chicago-NYC. Not very many. It's def a unique setup. 

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11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

While we are waiting on the rest of the 0z runs, could anyone provide their thoughts on the pattern After the early week snowstorm ?

Well, it's looking quite likely we face the prospect of a couple day warmup and cutter at the end of next week as trough and cold settle back into the west again. PNA temporarily neutralizes with the upcoming storm before diving again. -NAO/AO blocking remains firm, EPO/WPO look generally negative-ish.

So after we have this probable cutter next week we look to settle into a cool but not cold pattern for the time being with storm chances but some vulnerablity to cutters. MJO has been back in the picture near the Phase 6/7 line, and guidance generally gets it slowly into 7 at a pretty decent amplitude... which reflects the previous sentence pretty decently. A warmish phase but not quite the dead ringer torch phase 4-6 is. 

combined_image.png.089f0ec0aa520f59cba35245498b989d.png

What would really be nice is eventually progressing the MJO pulse toward 8-1-2... which would likely put some of the really cold air in play on this side of the country.  Either way, I don't currently see any major detrimental things that would prevent us from having our chances getting into the first half of next month. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well, it's looking quite likely we face the prospect of a couple day warmup and cutter at the end of next week as trough and cold settle back into the west again. PNA temporarily neutralizes with the upcoming storm before diving again. -NAO/AO blocking remains firm, EPO/WPO look generally negative-ish.

So after we have this probable cutter next week we look to settle into a cool but not cold pattern for the time being with storm chances but some vulnerablity to cutters. MJO has been back in the picture near the Phase 6/7 line, and guidance generally gets it slowly into 7 at a pretty decent amplitude... which reflects the previous sentence pretty decently. A warmish phase but not quite the dead ringer torch phase 4-6 is. 

combined_image.png.089f0ec0aa520f59cba35245498b989d.png

What would really be nice is eventually progressing the MJO pulse toward 8-1-2... which would likely put some of the really cold air in play on this side of the country.  Either way, I don't currently see any major detrimental things that would prevent us from having our chances getting into the first half of next month. 

Thank Mag. I appreciate the update after this storm. 

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