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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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1 minute ago, paweather said:

Looks like per the MA Forum UKIE went south. Sooooo....what does that mean for the EURO run coming up. 

Ukie is south. Like WAY south. Like it's a VA special. Most in here get very little, border areas might see several inches on the Uncle verbatim. 

Hopefully, this is one time that the Euro does NOT follow the Ukie's lead...

It's hard for me to decipher Ukie panels. Perhaps the above isn't totally accurate, but I think I see the gist of it. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Ukie is south. Like WAY south. Like it's a VA special. Most in here get very little, border areas might see several inches on the Uncle verbatim. 

Hopefully, this is one time that the Euro does NOT follow the Ukie's lead...

It's hard for me to decipher Ukie panels. Perhaps the above isn't totally accurate, but I think I see the gist of it. 

Yeah it is way south. VA special for sure. CMC is still good. Although that trended a bit south as well today I believe. TT is having issues with the model run. Let's see what happens after such a good set of runs we likely knew we would see some trending not in a good way. 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

From what I could see, the only snow we get at all from the Ukie is the WAA. To Brian's (daxx) point earlier, to me it looks like the coastal forms and escapes due east. We get nothing from that.

PSU is harping suppression issues once again. 

Yea I'd say, it doesn't even snow in PA NE of Tamaqua on the UKMET. I also don't remember the UKMET - Euro connection being a thing with the December system. 

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

Yea I'd say, it doesn't even snow in PA NE of Tamaqua on the UKMET. I also don't remember the UKMET - Euro connection being a thing with the December system. 

It seemed for years that the Euro and Ukie were lock-step with each other, and if one deviated, the other followed immediately on the next run. The past year or two the Ukie has seemed more erratic - hoping that is the case here. But man, can you ever see the confluence draining out of NE on the Ukie....

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16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I'd say, it doesn't even snow in PA NE of Tamaqua on the UKMET. I also don't remember the UKMET - Euro connection being a thing with the December system. 

Wow...that's got to be some kind of hiccup, no? I mean, can something trend that bad in one run? Seriously, that's not what I hoped for when I said I hope the snow comes in after my flight out.

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It seemed for years that the Euro and Ukie were lock-step with each other, and if one deviated, the other followed immediately on the next run. The past year or two the Ukie has seemed more erratic - hoping that is the case here. But man, can you ever see the confluence draining out of NE on the Ukie....

Yea I know that's been a unofficial indicator of the Euro in the past. I recall the UKMET being south on the lead-up to December's storm, or at least that they weren't showing that connection. I'm sure there's a couple comments on it buried many pages ago in this thread somewhere since this thread started at the beginning of December.

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4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Wow...that's got to be some kind of hiccup, no? I mean, can something trend that bad in one run? Seriously, that's not what I hoped for when I said I hope the snow comes in after my flight out.

I haven't really been watching what the UKMET's been doing, I just looked at it today since it was commented on being way south. But yea lol, that's not an outcome I'm anticipating out of this. 

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It shifted the higher probs significantly south. 

Compared to what, the 0z run? 12z looks better in central PA probs wise. I see some solidifying of better probs but not a significant shift. Biggest difference I see is in western VA and eastern WV. 

12z left, 0z right.

342459698_ScreenShot2021-01-28at1_00_21PM.thumb.png.7ee4ffb41b6d3fb1171bec0d18f78fd3.png

 

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