anotherman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The Mid-Atlantic forum is talking about how the 6z EPS is east of 0z. I don't have maps, but that is what I figured might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 36 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Catching up here with coffee. Reading ma thread psuhoffman points out that the op is a northwest outlier so this could adjust back south. Either way this is an exciting storm Thats comforting for us LSV folk, but as you suggest, its a great storm just as the op presents it. Its a little to early to be nitpickin anyway (as i currently am guilty of doing - lol) If all holds today and tonight, its going to be fun to see this play out. and as i suggested yesterday, the pattern looks like more chances in the coming weeks. Just loving having winter around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 31 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My take is that the storms jackpot heavy snow area keeps expanding once the qpf starts adjusting up. DC and points north 2ft amounts. A storms crawling up the coast could be one of biggest storms in the last 25 years. Once NAM comes into range, it will start spitting out 36-48” amounts. This one is why I got into weather. x2. Its so fun when we have stuff like this to track. I think the retrograde/stall will only be realized starting tonight. IF that look holds, it might get a little crazy in here, even in Lanco. Any further inland tho, and I start running outta wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 43 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My take is that the storms jackpot heavy snow area keeps expanding once the qpf starts adjusting up. DC and points north 2ft amounts. A storms crawling up the coast could be one of biggest storms in the last 25 years. Once NAM comes into range, it will start spitting out 36-48” amounts. This one is why I got into weather. Now this makes me wish I was going to start the job the following week. I may miss out on a good one. 40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Interesting that some of the MESO's have a pre dawn Sunday start now....for much of the LSV. That I didn't want to hear. My brother-in-law is going to drive me up to the airport in Scranton. I'm guessing we'll leave between 8 and 9 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, anotherman said: Good morning! Slow getting up last night after watching the Euro run...holy crap! At any rate, to finish this post, Horst thinks this is the classic storm for a Lanco Snow -mix - snow. Details in the next 24 hours. As excited as I was to see the Euro, my first thought was "this is fantastic...but it needs to stop moving north NOW." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Good morning! Slow getting up last night after watching the Euro run...holy crap! At any rate, to finish this post, Horst thinks this is the classic storm for a Lanco Snow -mix - snow. Details in the next 24 hours. As excited as I was to see the Euro, my first thought was "this is fantastic...but it needs to stop moving north NOW." Just confirmed the 6z euro eps members are se of the op. We good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Voyager said: Now this makes me wish I was going to start the job the following week. I may miss out on a good one. That I didn't want to hear. My brother-in-law is going to drive me up to the airport in Scranton. I'm guessing we'll leave between 8 and 9 am. I think the WAA spread does slow down some depending on when the transfer to the coastal happens but this is definitely not a Sunday night storm anymore based on the stuff I saw. Sunday day possibly into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Just confirmed the 6z euro eps members are se of the op. We good. Very good news. I still believe it's prudent for you and me to expect some taint before the coastal takes over completely - that's how we roll with a dying primary in OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Very good news. I still believe it's prudent for you and me to expect some taint before the coastal takes over completely - that's how we roll with a dying primary in OH. Unfortunately you may have to sacrifice a few inches of snow to the snow gods in order for more of the forum to see the big numbers. Did Lancaster mix during the 96 storm? We didn’t out this way. I remember we did during 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Unfortunately you may have to sacrifice a few inches of snow to the snow gods in order for more of the forum to see the big numbers. Did Lancaster mix during the 96 storm? We didn’t out this way. I remember we did during 93. No mixing in '96 However, the primary died WELL south of where this one is progged. I don't think we're going to mix because of the coastal's position on the coast, I think we'll mix because of the north advancement of the primary. Once the coastal takes over, we'll go back to snow. '93 was 6 hours of nothing but sleet for me during the midday hours on Saturday. That was a super-tucked bomb, though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Unfortunately you may have to sacrifice a few inches of snow to the snow gods in order for more of the forum to see the big numbers. Did Lancaster mix during the 96 storm? We didn’t out this way. I remember we did during 93. we mixed in 93 and 16 didnt in the 2010 twins or 96 (if memory serves) Yeah, we likely have to sacrifice for all you true centrals to cash in....were nice like that. But just once in a while, a pure snow bomb and not worrying about changeovers is nice to have down here. edit - lol. looks like trainer and i still have good memories in our old age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: we mixed in 93 and 16 didnt in the 2010 twins or 96 (if memory serves) Yeah, we likely have to sacrifice for all you true centrals to cash in....were nice like that. But just once in a while, a pure snow bomb and not worrying about changeovers is nice to have down here. It’s possible that the ccb sets up over York and Lancaster and areas to the west get lighter snows. You never know but someone is going to end up very happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: It’s possible that the ccb sets up over York and Lancaster and areas to the west get lighter snows. You never know but someone is going to end up very happy look at qpf distributions over last 24 hours. One can already see where the models think the ccb's/defo bands will set up, and thats often west and north once the precip hits the bumps in the geography (mtns). Its basically lake effect in reverse fashion. In truth, given whats being shown, I'm down w/ whatever. Just nice to be looking at a storm of such magnitude. Only ask is that it survives the late week 2 day warmup before we go back to winter next weekend....but I'm getting way ahead of myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'm not to worried about to far west, north, south. I'm worried about everything adjusting too far east as we go. We have some room right now, but these setups usually adjust east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, daxx said: I'm not to worried about to far west, north, south. I'm worried about everything adjusting too far east as we go. We have some room right now, but these setups usually adjust east. Sounds like energy is coming ashore today so once that happens models should be getting better data and narrowing the post. I’ll feel better once all players are over land. Then we’ll see where things stand. It would be nice to start seeing all the models supporting each other to build confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Very good news. I still believe it's prudent for you and me to expect some taint before the coastal takes over completely - that's how we roll with a dying primary in OH. Even in PD2 we tainted.But once coastal gets going, it’s on!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, daxx said: I'm not to worried about to far west, north, south. I'm worried about everything adjusting too far east as we go. We have some room right now, but these setups usually adjust east. There was talk yesterday about the analogs for this potential event. Interestingly, the #1 analog was 2000 = a complete whiff east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Sounds like energy is coming ashore today so once that happens models should be getting better data and narrowing the post. I’ll feel better once all players are over land. Then we’ll see where things stand. It would be nice to start seeing all the models supporting each other to build confidence. Just looked at 12 NAM as its basically hitting the west coast. It initialized at 1000mb in basically exact location and HP in alberta came in at 1045 where most had it at 1043. That said, its a good start IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: There was talk yesterday about the analogs for this potential event. Interestingly, the #1 analog was 2000 = a complete whiff east. Oh crap, that is a bit scary.....gotta hope it ends up more like February10 2010 and not 2000 or Boxing Day 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: Oh crap, that is a bit scary.....gotta hope it ends up more like February10 2010 and not 2000 or Boxing Day 2010. Most on the list were HUGE hits, including #2 and #3. It was #1 that was the fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Boy what an image to wake up to! Even zoomed in I can barely see that I appear to be in the bullseye with that purple color, which looks like it begins around 36"? Of course the very first storm this looks like is Jan 2016 where I received 35" which was the single biggest storm of my life. I know this is going to change! It's just nice to see that the north trend we all were expecting 48 hours ago when the bullseye was down in northern Virginia has materialized. Hard to believe this is Thursday and we have to wait until Sunday for it to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: There was talk yesterday about the analogs for this potential event. Interestingly, the #1 analog was 2000 = a complete whiff east. I dont think it would be a complete wiff. We still would get waa snow with this. Im talking about the coastal. Right now models are looking good so this is just me being a little paranoid. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, daxx said: I dont think it would be a complete wiff. We still would get waa snow with this. Im talking about the coastal. Right now models are looking good so this is just me being a little paranoid. Lol Agreed. Worst case scenario is a 5-10” warning waa hit then a miss with the coastal. Best case is 24-60” ccb crushing conservatively. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 19 minutes ago, FHS said: looks like it still needs addressed in the forecast discussion , Same as last night with no update. You know they'll be last to the dance. Almost always are. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, daxx said: I dont think it would be a complete wiff. We still would get waa snow with this. Im talking about the coastal. Right now models are looking good so this is just me being a little paranoid. Lol Paranoia isn't a bad thing. There's a reason why huge events don't happen that often. It's easier to fail than to win. People talk about PSUHoffman always looking for what can go wrong, but very often...something goes wrong. I think you made a very valid point and it needs to at least be considered as a possibility. I am always on the taint train because both history and my climo suggest that I taint far more often than what models originally depict. And further...when models do depict taint, it almost always advances further north and west than depicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Paranoia isn't a bad thing. There's a reason why huge events don't happen that often. It's easier to fail than to win. People talk about PSUHoffman always looking for what can go wrong, but very often...something goes wrong. I think you made a very valid point and it needs to at least be considered as a possibility. I am always on the taint train because both history and my climo suggest that I taint far more often than what models originally depict. And further...when models do depict taint, it almost always advances further north and west than depicted. Living in Lancaster for 23 years, always run the risk of taint. But if CCB forms, no concern with dealing with a couple hours of taint. I tainted in PD2 for 5 hours and still had 25” of snow.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Agreed. Worst case scenario is a 5-10” warning waa hit then a miss with the coastal. Best case is 24-60” ccb crushing conservatively. spits coffee while reading 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: spits coffee while reading Lol Im working hard to get a emoji 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Paranoia isn't a bad thing. There's a reason why huge events don't happen that often. It's easier to fail than to win. People talk about PSUHoffman always looking for what can go wrong, but very often...something goes wrong. I think you made a very valid point and it needs to at least be considered as a possibility. I am always on the taint train because both history and my climo suggest that I taint far more often than what models originally depict. And further...when models do depict taint, it almost always advances further north and west than depicted. I wish I couldn't agree w/ this, but in truth I cant agree more. LSV is the sacrificial lamb of the forum when we are staring down the barrel of a doozy and it looks like the guns are being turned our way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Lol Im working hard to get a emoji Hahaha Joe! When I read that I thought about posting this >>>>> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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