canderson Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS to me looks like it’s inching closer to the Euro’s latest evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, canderson said: GFS to me looks like it’s inching closer to the Euro’s latest evolution. I think so it is getting there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Keep in mind Superstorm 93 went to sleet/FR for a period of time this could still be EPIC. And for our North Friends you got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 looking at the surface on the GFS at hour 102 you can see a lot of deep convection to the east of the coastal low. Wonder if this is a situation where GFS shunts the coastal almost due east. Seen it before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'm not sure either the way GFS/EURO is a big storm. The difference is the transfer and when it happens. But the GFS has a great front end thump and still shows the backend thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ah, the good 'ol classic OBX to Bermuda to just south of Boston track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, GrandmasterB said: ah, the good 'ol classic OBX to Bermuda to just south of Boston track. I literally laughed out loud and startled my wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS and EURO are so apart but both get significant snow into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 From what I'm seeing GFS says 6" from the primary, and that's all by 7:00pm Sunday evening. Then there's 0.2" of ZR, then a whopping 2" more from the coastal/back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 LOL. Just play the GFS surface map from hour 96 on. I'm thinking the GFS is still trying to figure this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, paweather said: GFS and EURO are so apart but both get significant snow into PA. They do major different things after the low hits Missouri it looks like to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 At 132 the low is just south of long island. The GFS spent 36 hours just randomly placing L's in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, canderson said: They do major different things after the low hits Missouri it looks like to me. Yep. It is more just the transfer and when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just to quote: Y’all gonna like the Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It is coming inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS barrels the primary 850mb low into PA creating enough of a southern push for the P-type issues before it reforms over the coastal and changes p-types back to snow. Nit picking where the random L's get plopped over the general surface low pressure area stalling off the coast aside, the placement of the precip shield is okay. And it's a long duration event like everything else has. The issue is thermals, and how it tracks the 850mb low... and looking back and comparing the whole last model cycle it's been really consistent with that. Suppose one could argue it thermally may be too warm if the deform precip has heavier consistent rates since 850/925 temps are somewhat marginal. But yea, GFS still in it's camp. The Euro has been arcing that 850mb low under us before it gets to PA and then reforming while the Canadian just barely gets it under us. Something's gonna give with this eventually. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: GFS barrels the primary 850mb low into PA creating enough of a southern push for the P-type issues before it reforms over the coastal and changes p-types back to snow. Nit picking where the random L's get plopped over the general surface low pressure area stalling off the coast aside, the placement of the precip shield is okay. And it's a long duration event like everything else has. The issue is thermals, and how it tracks the 850mb low... and looking back and comparing the whole last model cycle it's been really consistent with that. Suppose one could argue it thermally may be too warm if the deform precip has heavier consistent rates since 850/925 temps are somewhat marginal. But yea, GFS still in it's camp. The Euro has been arcing that 850mb low under us before it gets to PA and then reforming while the Canadian just barely gets it under us. Something's gonna give with this eventually. CMC remains strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 33 minutes ago, paweather said: CMC remains strong. The GEFS is coming around more with each run for CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro is a shellacking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Euro Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Euro is a shellacking! If only we could lock it in now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Earlier tonight, the post from @psuhoffman stated the importance of the low being tucked in for most of our HECS. The 0z Euro run was very tucked in and it stalled out and just crushed CTP! Only a few days to go.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Here is the super zoomed in 0z Euro Kuchera ratio snow map for CTP. Maybe this is the one?!??! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the super zoomed in 0z Euro Kuchera ratio snow map for CTP. Maybe this is the one?!??! Whoop, there it is !!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: If only we could lock it in now! i agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 06z GFS starting to come in line.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I went and exchanged money for chips here... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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