MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Back to reality though, the CMC ensemble is a bit more in line with the other stuff. Really a Mid-Atlantic/LSV/I-95 corridor focused heavy swath. Splits the primary and coastal 6+ swaths however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Really glad the Ukie came back north. Let's see what the European is cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 lol at the Ukie. 17.2" in Allentown and 3.8" in Hazleton. Of course, I've seen that actually happen a few times in the past 20 years since I'm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Hearing euro south with primary and transferring quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not sure euro is looking promising...looks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Not sure euro is looking promising...looks south. It's really south it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: It's really south it looks. Yeah even northern Maryland peeps seem worried on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Snow maps show 6 inch line in northern Maryland more to the south, southern tier in 2 to 5 ish range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Lol what a clunker on the Euro, ouch. It's reverting to what it was mostly doing a couple days ago before the huge run last night at 0z, killing the primary precip in PA and ducking the coastal swath. Probably the furthest these ops have diverged from each other in the last few days. 0z vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Quite a jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just when I started to get pulled in...ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Lol what a clunker on the Euro, ouch. It's reverting to what it was mostly doing a couple days ago before the huge run last night at 0z, killing the primary precip in PA and ducking the coastal swath. Probably the furthest these ops have diverged from each other in the last few days. 0z vs 12z To quote a famous poster from the Mid Atlantic thread....”the Euro was a disaster!” The Euro is on its own with this type of outcome. Do you think it is just one off run, especially when all other major guidance has the storm further north & west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 As others have said, it’s just gone back to its position a few days ago before it bumped north. At this point, I’m rooting on the main low with all I have lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 yeah not buying that shift that much south. the surprising feature has weakened so much lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: To quote a famous poster from the Mid Atlantic thread....”the Euro was a disaster!” The Euro is on its own with this type of outcome. Do you think it is just one off run, especially when all other major guidance has the storm further north & west? It's gone south 4 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: To quote a famous poster from the Mid Atlantic thread....”the Euro was a disaster!” The Euro is on its own with this type of outcome. Do you think it is just one off run, especially when all other major guidance has the storm further north & west? I'm not sure, this was a huge shift from 12z. Like I said, this was what the Euro had been doing before it's big run last night at 0z, while the GFS was punching the primary almost to Cleveland and having all kinds of mixing problems. The GFS has shifted more toward a Canadian like primary track, but still looks like the model with the most mixing issues. Should note the Euro map i posted wasn't done in New England as eastern Mass gets crushed. But the heavy swath even ducks Philly and NYC. Pretty much gonna have to blend the ensembles tonight, these ops are all over the place with their snow swath. Figured we'd be starting to center this up but not tonight lol. Euro's probably too suppressed this run, and Canadian/Icon are probably too amped north. Almost looks like the GFS/GEFS/UKMET represents some kind of middle ground. Nothing else shaves off that precip shield in eastern PA like the Euro did... I don't buy that extreme of an erosion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I'm not sure, this was a huge shift from 12z. Like I said, this was what the Euro had been doing before it's big run last night at 0z, while the GFS was punching the primary almost to Cleveland and having all kinds of mixing problems. The GFS has shifted more toward a Canadian like primary track, but still looks like the model with the most mixing issues. Should note the Euro map i posted wasn't done in New England as eastern Mass gets crushed. But the heavy swath even ducks Philly and NYC. Pretty much gonna have to blend the ensembles tonight, these ops are all over the place with their snow swath. Figured we'd be starting to center this up but not tonight lol. Euro's probably too suppressed this run, and Canadian/Icon are probably too amped north. Almost looks like the GFS/GEFS/UKMET represents some kind of middle ground. Nothing else shaves off that precip shield in eastern PA like the Euro did... I don't buy that extreme of an erosion. Thanks, I agree that the blend of the 0z runs tonight is the best way to go at this time. The Euro usually doesn’t have this much of an extreme drop off a Cliff like it did tonight, especially at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 0z Euro ensemble vs 18z, essentially the same. It's still the furthest south of the ensemble guidance but more in the ballpark of the other stuff. The Canadian ensemble mean (posted earlier) definitely didn't show any reflection of the crazy op run that had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 So ah, storm cancel? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Flurries this morning. Snow is on its way!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It’s Euro against all the other models, if I’m not mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, anotherman said: It’s Euro against all the other models, if I’m not mistaken? All models were trending towards the euro the last couple days so it will be interesting to see if the bleeding stops today or this slips away from us. My guy still tells me this is a northern Maryland southern pa storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 30 minutes ago, Superstorm said: RGEM looking good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 6z GFS & 6z NAM still delivered the goods. Hopefully the Euro comes back north today, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 bring this home Blizz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, sauss06 said: bring this home Blizz Yes, we’ve come too far to let this slip away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z euro is coming out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: 6z euro is coming out.... I wish I didn’t care.... but I do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Dr No. No Tuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now