paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The NAM is the EURO. The EE Rule remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Really encouraging shift... Rest of 00Z suite will be interesting to watch but it's the 12Z Run tomorrow I'm looking forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 While we are waiting on the rest of the 0z runs, could anyone provide their thoughts on the pattern After the early week snowstorm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Where is the RGEM at 78? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm not sweating some stuff shifting around some right now. We have probably almost half the storm to go still out of NAM range and this thing's arriving roughly in D3 range. Mentioned this earlier today but look at the snow swath out in the midwest. Chicago getting clobbered with a snowstorm is typically from an event that is trying to cut and would give us p-type issues. We have blocking/confluence and such but I just don't think it's overwhelming enough that this thing get's completely stuffed or something like that. How many storm examples are out there of a Chicago - DC heavy snow axis? Or even a Chicago-NYC. Not very many. It's def a unique setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: 30+ jackpot over Lancaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 30+ jackpot over Lancaster 3 days of snow. More tucked than 12z euro op but similar results as to a jackpot area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: 3 days of snow. More tucked than 12z euro op but similar results as to a jackpot area. 2.80” qpf would get it done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I love the Germans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Too bad the ICON sucks. That was an amazing run for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I love the Germans. My wife is German so I’ll thank her for everyone ifyouknowwhatimean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: While we are waiting on the rest of the 0z runs, could anyone provide their thoughts on the pattern After the early week snowstorm ? Well, it's looking quite likely we face the prospect of a couple day warmup and cutter at the end of next week as trough and cold settle back into the west again. PNA temporarily neutralizes with the upcoming storm before diving again. -NAO/AO blocking remains firm, EPO/WPO look generally negative-ish. So after we have this probable cutter next week we look to settle into a cool but not cold pattern for the time being with storm chances but some vulnerablity to cutters. MJO has been back in the picture near the Phase 6/7 line, and guidance generally gets it slowly into 7 at a pretty decent amplitude... which reflects the previous sentence pretty decently. A warmish phase but not quite the dead ringer torch phase 4-6 is. What would really be nice is eventually progressing the MJO pulse toward 8-1-2... which would likely put some of the really cold air in play on this side of the country. Either way, I don't currently see any major detrimental things that would prevent us from having our chances getting into the first half of next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 2.80” qpf would get it done I had a MA reply all typed but stopped from sending at the last moment....congratulating cashtown and anotherman. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ICON is the winter......done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Do I need to go down to the MA thread and set some mother****ers straight? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I had a MA reply all typed but stopped from sending at the last moment....congratulating cashtown and anotherman. Oh boy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: Do I need to go down to the MA thread and set some mother****ers straight? Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well, it's looking quite likely we face the prospect of a couple day warmup and cutter at the end of next week as trough and cold settle back into the west again. PNA temporarily neutralizes with the upcoming storm before diving again. -NAO/AO blocking remains firm, EPO/WPO look generally negative-ish. So after we have this probable cutter next week we look to settle into a cool but not cold pattern for the time being with storm chances but some vulnerablity to cutters. MJO has been back in the picture near the Phase 6/7 line, and guidance generally gets it slowly into 7 at a pretty decent amplitude... which reflects the previous sentence pretty decently. A warmish phase but not quite the dead ringer torch phase 4-6 is. What would really be nice is eventually progressing the MJO pulse toward 8-1-2... which would likely put some of the really cold air in play on this side of the country. Either way, I don't currently see any major detrimental things that would prevent us from having our chances getting into the first half of next month. Thank Mag. I appreciate the update after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: ICON is the winter......done. Yes, and this 0z ICON map here is just 10 to 1 ratio...wow! Nice tucked in track that stalls near the DelMarVa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS? Keep me dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, and this 0z ICON map here is just 10 to 1 ratio...wow! Nice tucked in track that stalls near the DelMarVa! Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I love the Germans. And I bet many are now paying attention to z icon. Good lord. That’s nuts fr us in all if eastern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Lol that really is an Atomixwx bullseye this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Everything seems to be slower in model trends. GFS now to with the Primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Lol that really is an Atomixwx bullseye this time. He clearly knows wheee the cocaine is so yea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: Lol that really is an Atomixwx bullseye this time. You think the euro is onto something or just had bad beer for dinner ?? if it continues to tick south this may be a real battle royale. Gut say it cones north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Another Crush Job incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7AM Monday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Gfs at 78 is well west and tucked. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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