Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Yeah I knew with all the great trends we were having we may see some off trends as seems to always be the case. But even the off trends today didn't result in failure. EURO/GFS and even CMC was good if not decent. They have the general idea of what is going to happen now it comes down to placement of the transfer and where it goes. I think everyone here in the southern half of PA is still in line for having a shot at 12-18" or more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Yeah I knew with all the great trends we were having we may see some off trends as seems to always be the case. But even the off trends today didn't result in failure. EURO/GFS and even CMC was good if not decent. They have the general idea of what is going to happen now it comes down to placement of the transfer and where it goes. Big solutions are such a tease (and likely why NWS puts posts out wrt posting snow maps). 6-10 has been my gut feeling since yesterday, and if that is a long duration event....im totally down w/ that. I'm gonna ride that horse until a better one comes along.....might end up being just a jackass till its over. We'll find out in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I think everyone here in the southern half of PA is still in line for having a shot at 12-18" or more. Man I sure hope so. Seeing the euro op and cmc ens sure were nice, but all were not in agreement. Goalposts should narrow by tomorrow night. 6 vs 16" is still a nice place to be in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: Big solutions are such a tease (and likely why NWS puts posts out wrt posting snow maps). 6-10 has been my gut feeling since yesterday, and if that is a long duration event....im totally down w/ that. I'm gonna ride that horse until a better one comes along.....might end up being just a jackass till its over. We'll find out in a few days. I like Bubbler 12-18" better! LOL...No, but the models have been pretty consistent on the overall evolution of the storm they are just now trying to figure out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I think everyone here in the southern half of PA is still in line for having a shot at 12-18" or more. Agreed. I think the Ensembles are leaning SW due to the WAA - most models show only a couple/few inches for me from that, while areas down your way and a bit SW of you might see double that. I need the coastal to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Agreed. I think the Ensembles are leaning SW due to the WAA - most models show only a couple/few inches for me from that, while areas down your way and a bit SW of you might see double that. I need the coastal to produce. it all comes down the the coastal between 6 or 16. We know the Primary will give us a good thump we will know Sunday night whether it will be a MECS, HECS, or BECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 He's still downplaying. Tweeted this 35 minutes ago. @TOMRUSSELLCBS21 A WINDOW INTO YOUR WEEKEND WEATHER: Very cold weekend ahead! Quiet Saturday but Snow moves in on Sunday. A Few inches of snow before changing to a wintry mix by Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, paweather said: I like Bubbler 12-18" better! LOL...No, but the models have been pretty consistent on the overall evolution of the storm they are just now trying to figure out the details. Ha. Mine is not a forecast just saying that between ratios for more northern parts of the south and chances of CCB in farther southern areas, everyone is still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, paweather said: it all comes down the the coastal between 6 or 16. We know the Primary will give us a good thump we will know Sunday night whether it will be a MECS, HECS, or BECS. Sort of...if the coastal misses completely, the Ukie solution is absolutely valid. Even using the Euro, I don't think we see 6" from the WAA part of the event. If the coastal misses, I think 2-4" is a better call east of the river. Let's hope this is a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Agreed. I think the Ensembles are leaning SW due to the WAA - most models show only a couple/few inches for me from that, while areas down your way and a bit SW of you might see double that. I need the coastal to produce. Yea, the WAA does phase out in eastern PA. Similar to what happened a few days ago (to all of us) as we watched that slug of WV moisture never get here. I think you get coastal or this is a giant failure at this point. If it goes so far east (is not phased) then there are going to be tears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Yea, the WAA does phase out in eastern PA. Similar to what happened a few days ago (to all of us) as we watched that slug of WV moisture never get here. I think you get coastal or this is a giant failure at this point. If it goes so far east (is not phased) then there are going to be tears! This is what's been on my mind the past few hours. I honestly think it's going to be a bomb or a bust. There could be a middle ground, but I have a feeling it's going to be a few inches or a crap ton here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 If we block out snowfall maps and just look qpf and thermals most of us end up with at least a warning event. There is going to be a nice jackpot zone. We just don't know where yet. I think we are getting close to knowing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 He's still downplaying. Tweeted this 35 minutes ago. @TOMRUSSELLCBS21 A WINDOW INTO YOUR WEEKEND WEATHER: Very cold weekend ahead! Quiet Saturday but Snow moves in on Sunday. A Few inches of snow before changing to a wintry mix by Sunday evening.Well, he’s either going to be a hero or be very wrong. No in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is what's been on my mind the past few hours. I honestly think it's going to be a bomb or a bust. There could be a middle ground, but I have a feeling it's going to be a few inches or a crap ton here. I fear this as well I just don't want to discuss it. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, daxx said: I fear this as well I just don't want to discuss it. Lol! I felt much more comfortable 24 hours ago than I do now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, daxx said: If we block out snowfall maps and just look qpf and thermals most of us end up with at least a warning event. There is going to be a nice jackpot zone. We just don't know where yet. I think we are getting close to knowing. Everyone quickly grabs their calcs and does the math on 17-1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Well, he’s either going to be a hero or be very wrong. No in between. He also did not mention Monday just the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WOW, don't look at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, paweather said: WOW, don't look at the NAM. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, paweather said: WOW, don't look at the NAM. Well now I'm gonna... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Way south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: Well now I'm gonna... It is the NAM at that range! Must make an excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: WOW, don't look at the NAM. This is an evergreen post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 VA SPECIAL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I will say at 84 it comes back with the coastal, just the Primary is all VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: VA SPECIAL! Its the Voyager Airport Special but unless that baby escapes there would be lots of snow afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I will say at 84 it comes back with the coastal, just the Primary is all VA. I like that evolution better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Anybody have the NAM @ 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Knowing the NAM, the 0z will have the primary barrel through Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I like that evolution better . Agreed. Looks good to me. About to get nam’d 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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